Packers vs Lions Predictions & Best Odds for Thursday Night Football (Dec. 5)

• The 11-1 Detroit Lions go for an NFL-best 11th straight win against the Green Bay Packers on TNF tonight
• The 9-3 Packers would all but clinch a playoff berth with a win against division-rival Detroit
• See the Packers vs Lions predictions and best available odds for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 5

A heavyweight NFC North battle starts Week 14 in the NFL as the Green Bay Packers (9-3, 4-1 away, 6-6 ATS) visit the NFC-leading Detroit Lions (11-1, 5-1 home, 9-3 ATS) on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET. After opening as 4.5-point home favorites, Detroit is now as low as 3.0-point chalk on TNF.

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Predictions

• Lions moneyline (-170) at ESPN Bet
  

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The Packers vs Lions odds have been steadily moving in Green Bay’s direction all week. Detroit was a -225 moneyline favorite when the Week 14 NFL odds opened on Sunday night, and that number has come down as far -170 at ESPN Bet. That’s the difference between a 69.23% implied win probability and a 62.96% implied win probability, which is a massive shift for a Week 14 NFL game.

In my opinion, the line has moved too far towards the Packers. The movement isn’t without some justification. As Ian Jones pointed out in his Packers vs Lions same-game parlay, the Detroit defense is severely depleted. A handful of players, including Aidan Hutchinson, the erstwhile favorite in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, were already on IR before last week, and now DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike are all out in Week 14.

But this type of adversity is nothing new for the Lions, especially on defense. Detroit has been playing at far less than 100% for the last two months, and the results have still be borderline immaculate. The Lions have only allowed more than 20 points once in the last six game (26-23 win over Houston) and have averaged just 13.8 PPG in that span. That includes a 24-14 win over Green Bay at Lambeau in Week 9, a game the Lions led 24-6 entering the fourth quarter.

Yes, the Packers wound up drastically out-gaining Detroit in that Week 9 tilt (411 to 261) but a lot of that was garbage-time yardage. Detroit was full-value for the lopsided victory, largely because of their defense, which had a second-quarter pick-six courtesy of Kerby Joseph.

KERBY JOSEPH PICK-6! His 6th INT of the season

📺: #DETvsGB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/sJrkdGgLqA

— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024

It’s certainly harder to defend the fast track at Ford Field than it is the tundra at Lambeau, but even at home, Detroit is only surrendering 18.2 PPG, which would be the fourth-best scoring defense in the league as a whole.

And the Detroit offense isn’t nearly as banged up. The loss of left tackle Taylor Decker (knee) certainly hurts but he also missed the Thanksgiving game against the Bears, so this isn’t novel territory for Detroit. The Lions surrendered just one sack without Decker, and Chicago’s pass rush grades out significantly better than Green Bay’s (13th vs 23rd at PFF).

Eric Rosales expects at least one major from Detroit RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs, including a Gibbs anytime touchdown (-150) among his favorite Packers vs Lions player props tonight.

Best Packers vs Lions Odds for TNF

With so much line movement over the course of the week, there is still a pretty decent range in the Packers vs Lions odds roughly four hours before kickoff. The spread is still as high as 3.5 and as low as 3.0. Green Bay ATS bettors can find their best option – Green Bay +3.5 (-115) – at BetMGM right now. Lions backers should head to DraftKings to get Detroit -3.0 at -118 odds.

On the moneyline, ESPN Bet has the best price on a Lions straight-up victory at -170, while bet365 has the longest Green Bay moneyline at +155.

One area where sportsbooks are basically in complete agreement is the game total. Every book has the over/under at 51.5 and all but DraftKings has the odds at -110 both ways. DK represents the best option for the under, shifting the line slightly to U 51.5 (-108).