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Patriots’ Super Bowl Odds Listed at +1700 After Signing Cam Newton

New England Patriots
Cam Newton signed a one-year, incentive-laden contract with the New England Patriots on Sunday. Photo by @NFL_Stats (Twitter).
  • The New England Patriots’ Super Bowl 55 odds have been shortened from +2300 to +1700 after signing former MVP Cam Newton
  • Newton played just two games in 2019 due to shoulder and foot injuries
  • Read below for analysis on how Newton’s signing impacts New Englands’ Super Bowl prospects

Raise your hand if you honestly thought Bill Belichick was going to enter the 2020 season with only Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer as his potential starting options. The New England Patriots’ coach is in the business of winning, and with a dominant defense at his disposal, he needed to at least shoot for a higher ceiling than what Stidham and Hoyer can offer.

Enter Cam Netwon. The 2015 NFL MVP signed a one-year incentive laden contract with the Pats on Sunday and will now compete for the starting gig.

Oddsmakers clearly believe the addition bolsters New Englands’ championship hopes, and have reacted accordingly.

Super Bowl 55 Odds

Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +650
Baltimore Ravens +700
San Francisco 49ers +950
New Orleans Saints +1200
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1500
New England Patriots +1700
Dallas Cowboys +1700
Philadelphia Eagles +1900
Seattle Seahawks +2100
Indianapolis Colts +2400
Pittsburgh Steelers +2400
Green Bay Packers +2500
Minnesota Vikings +2500
Los Angeles Rams +2800
Tennessee Titans +3000

All odds taken June 28th.

The Patriots’ Super Bowl 55 odds have been shortened from +2300 to +1700. They now trail just five teams, including the Tampa Buccaneers, who New England legend Tom Brady just joined back in March.

While Brady will turn 43 in August, Newton is just 31 and should be entering the prime of his career.

Newton vs Stidham

The fact that Belichick ultimately decided to sign Newton suggests maybe Stidham isn’t ready for the keys to the franchise just yet. The second-year pro out of Auburn flashed in the 2019 preseason, but threw just three passes all season. His college production was solid, but not spectacular, and only earned him a fourth round draft selection in a QB class that was underwhelming outside of Kyler Murray.

Newton however, can be a game changer. He instantly gives the Patriots credibility at the QB position and has a lengthy track record of success. He led the Carolina Panthers to 11 or more wins in three of his nine seasons, including in 2015 when they lost to the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl.

New England will cater to his strengths and if healthy (more on that later), Newton can certainly reestablish himself as one of the premier dual-threat quarterbacks.

What makes the move especially savvy, is that the Pats have invested very little for a potential star, while other teams like the Chicago Bears, are forking over draft picks and $20 million in guarantees to guys like Nick Foles.

Will Superman Fly Again?

Newton passed his physical in March and is reportedly well on his way to healing shoulder and foot injuries that knocked him out of 14 games in 2019. He recorded the highest completion percentage of his career in 2018, reaching the 20+ TD mark for the third time in four years. His rushing production dipped, but his QBR was the highest it’s been since his MVP campaign.

Cam Newton’s Stats Last 5 Seasons

Year Completion % Pass Yds Pass TD Rush Yds Rush TD QBR
2019 56.2 572 0 -2 0 N/A
2018 67.9 3395 24 488 4 55.0
2017 59.1 3302 22 754 6 53.3
2016 52.9 3509 19 359 5 48.0
2015 59.8 3837 35 636 10 67.0

He’ll also have the luxury of playing for one of the league’s premier play callers in Josh McDaniels. The Pats OC turned Tim Tebow into a serious weapon in their brief time together, and Newton’s skillset is far more versatile than anything he’s ever had to work with.

Yes, New England’s skilled position players are not elite, but neither were Newton’s 2015 Panthers and they still made the Super Bowl. That year his only 1,000-yard receiver was Greg Olsen and his running backs barely averaged 4.0 yards per carry.

Pats New Price is Still Attractive

Considering New England’s number one rated defense by DVOA is mostly still in tact, and that Newton is a proven commodity, the Pats’ new Super Bowl odds are still appealing.

Just five days after Super Bowl 54, New England’s championship odds were +933 with the assumption that Brady was returning. Now they’re still almost twice as long, with a younger, more versatile and more athletic quarterback.

Newton’s resume clearly isn’t as impressive as Brady’s, but at this point in their careers he has significantly more upside. When trying to hit a long shot, we need as much upside as we can get and the Pats certainly now qualify.

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