Payton’s Plays: NFL Week 10

“Bank!” Nope, not the hardcourt kinda bank, the greener kinda bank … you know, Benjamins. Last week I took the Chargers and Saints to win on the moneyline. They did, and now I’ve hit three straight weeks with my NFL picks. Not bad, not bad. But you’re only as good as your last play, so let’s keep this gravy train rolling down the tracks to the nearest financial institution.

I’d love to keep hammering on the Niners, but they’re massive 13-point dogs to Arizona this week. Zona isn’t looking good and the Honey Badger is out, so I could see the Niners covering, and the value just ain’t there to take the Cards’ moneyline.

Don’t worry, though. There’s some good lines out there. Now that we’re halfway through the season, it’s more clear who’s actually good and who got off to hot, fluky starts.

Atlanta at Philadelphia (PK)

The Philly defense got lit up by the G-Men last weekend, getting torched for four TD passes by Eli Manning and OBJ. Yeah, Carson Wentz put his D in bad spots with turnovers, but there wasn’t much resistance. Leodis McKelvin was exploited big-time on Philly’s backend, so look for Atlanta to pick on him again. And the Falcons can do that now. Their passing game isn’t just the Julio Jones show anymore. Mohammed Sanu is legit. They have the depth to pick on bad corners. (By the way, where the hell did this tight end Austin Hooper come from? The rich just got richer.)

The Atlanta offense is pretty much unstoppable right now. Matt Ryan is the first-half MVP. Oh, and Tevin Coleman could be back this week, too.

Philly is 3-0 at home and a solid team, no doubt. But they’ve lost four of their last five, and Atlanta has played real solid on the road. The Falcons are a serious Super Bowl contender. Between Jones, Sanu, Coleman, and Devonta Freeman, they can beat you in so many ways. All of a sudden, they sorta have a pass rush, too. That’s huge against the rookie Wentz, who looks a lot worse when he’s under pressure.

Gimme the Dirty Birds!

Pick: Atlanta (pk)

Seattle at New England (-7.5)

Man, I don’t like betting against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, but 7.5 points is a lot to give the Seahawks. The offense finally came alive on Monday against the Bills, who have a decent defense. The offensive line is still real bad, but Russell Wilson is looking healthier every week and Jimmy Graham is playing like he used to in Nawlins.

The Hawks’ defense hasn’t been great the last couple weeks. Giving up 25 to the Saints at home isn’t terrible, but giving up 25 to the one-dimensional Bills at home is pretty bad. I don’t see that being a trend, though. The D will be out to make a statement against the Pats, knowing they’re facing the best team in the league.

The Pats’ haven’t lost since Brady came back and are winning by an average of over 16 points per game. It’s been domination. Add in the fact that they’re coming off a bye, and I’m a bit concerned that they just keep on rolling. But the Seahawks always seem to play up to their competition. This team doesn’t get blown out. While they probably won’t win in Foxborough, they will keep it close.

Pick: Seattle (+7.5).