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Payton’s Plays: NFL Week 14

Gary Payton

by Gary Payton in Gary Payton Picks

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Let’s not talk about last week. I banked on Atlanta and San Diego, two teams I thought were really strong. I could complain about the reffing (c’mon Stripes, that was PI!) but I won’t go all OBJ on y’all. I’ll man up, face the fact that I lost, and come back stronger. Take note Odell.

The theme of last week was laying points on strong teams. This week is sorta the opposite. Even though there are a lot of really good battles on the schedule (Green Bay/Seattle, New England/Baltimore to name a couple), the lines I like are in the games with bad teams. Don’t get offended if you’re a fan of one of these teams. It hurts me to say it, too, since one of the “bad” teams I’m talking about is my Niners. (But I actually like San Fran this week going up against the Jets.)

Let’s get to it.


New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

What the Niners did last week in Chicago was embarrassing. Blame it on the snow if you want, but the team only had 147 yards in the game. They passed for six. SIX! So why do I like the Niners in this spot? I’ll answer your question with one of my own. Did you see the Jets on Monday Night Football? They got run over at home by the Colts (41-10). They only had 250 yards, themselves, and don’t have the elements to use as a scapegoat.

New York is rolling with Bryce Petty at QB now. The second-year pro has been awful. He had a 41.3 passer rating last week and tossed two picks. And that was against an Indy defense that’s pretty damn bad. Don’t get me wrong, the San Fran defense isn’t much better. But they’ve played pretty good at home this year. Petty’s not going to have an easier time than he did against the Colts.

On defense, it looks like some of the Jets have checked out. They should have a really good front seven, but Indy put up 135 yards on the ground. Sheldon Richardson isn’t playing like he can. If the Jets can’t shut down the run and get pressure on the QB, that’s a problem. Their secondary has been brutal all year.

I like the chances that Colin Kaepernick bounces back in good weather at home and the Niners shutdown Petty one more time.

Pick: San Francisco (-2.5)


Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7.5)

The Bears are just riddled with injuries, but this is still a feisty bunch that hasn’t quit on the season. They ran over San Fran last week in the snow, literally. Jordan Howard had 117 yards and three TDs in the blizzard. The Lions scored an impressive win of their own, completely shutting down Drew Brees in New Orleans (28-13). But the Detroit D is still vulnerable, especially against the run.

Plus, that was the first time all season that Detroit won a game by two scores. They’ve played in tight games all year, needing a bunch of last-minute comebacks. Full credit to Matt Stafford for being huge in crunch time, but Detroit doesn’t offer good value at -7.5. They don’t have that explosive type of offense that distances teams, even bad ones (like the Jaguars, who they beat by a touchdown, or the Rams, who they beat by a field goal).

Throw in the fact that Chicago already beat Detroit this year (17-14 in Week 4) and I like da Bears to keep this one close, even if they don’t get the W.

Pick: Chicago (7.5)


 

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