Payton’s Plays – NFL Week 6

Last week, I picked myself up off the turf and got in the win column. I’ll admit it, I didn’t earn your trust the first couple weeks, but I put my best thinking glove on for Week 5 and found paydirt. Time to keep this train rolling.

My six-point tease with the Steelers and Packers worked out great. The Steelers blew out the Jets. The Packers beat the Giants by seven. They were 7.5-point favorites. Good thing we teased that line down to 1.5.

The so-so Titans also came through against the brutal Dolphins, winning straight up as 3.5-point road dogs.

For this week’s first pick, I’m gonna stick with what worked last time: the Steelers being really good, the Titans being good enough, and the Dolphins being terrible. (Hint: there’s another tease on the menu.)

For the second pick, I’ve found a juicy over/under.

Let’s get it on.

Six-point teaser: Pittsburgh (-7.5 at MIA); Tennessee (-7 vs CLE)

[Editor’s note: in a “two-team teaser,” the bettor picks two teams to win against the spread, but gets to “tease” the line down closer to even. In this case, Gary is teasing the lines down by six points, meaning Pittsburgh is -1.5 and Tennessee is -1 for the purposes of his bet. If both teams win by two or more points, the bet will cash.]

The Dolphins just got beat down at home by Tennessee. Miami’s offensive line is in shambles. So is their secondary. The Titans aren’t even a good team. Know who is? The Steelers. Sure, they laid a stinker against Philly a few weeks ago, but with Lev Bell back in the lineup the last two games, they’ve looked unstoppable. Miami’s not going to be able to stop that offense. Denver might not even be able to. The Steelers don’t have much of a pass rush, so Ryan Tannehill might have a better day. But Pitt’s D is good enough to get some stops, and since we’re teasing the line down to 1.5, they won’t need many.

The Browns have been competitive in most games this year, but they still haven’t won a game. They lost more QBs last week. Either Cody Kessler or Josh McCown is going to start this week, but neither will be at 100%. The defense is still non-existent, especially against the run, which is what Tennessee does best. DeMarco Murray is running like he’s still a Cowboy. And Marcus Mariota finally put up a good game last week. As I said, the Titans aren’t a good team yet, but I like where they’re headed, and they matchup well with the Browns, who can’t buy a W.

Pick: Pittsburgh (-1.5) and Tennessee (-1)

Kansas City at Oakland (46.5 O/U)

People see Kansas City and Alex Smith and think “low-scoring” and “defense.” I see Oakland and Derek Carr going against the Chiefs’ league-worst pass rush and think “POINTS!” The Chiefs are coming off a bye and Andy Reid is really good after a bye, but you saw what the Steelers did to the Chiefs a couple weeks ago: they lit them up in every way possible. The Raiders offense isn’t quite on that level. It is really good though. They’ve hit 28 points in four of their five games.

The Chiefs D has been good against bad offenses. They held Houston to 19 points and the Jets to three. (Actually, Ryan Fitzpatrick did that for them.) When they’ve played decent offenses, the points have come fast and furious (33-27 win over San Diego; 43-14 loss to Pittsburgh). They’re not going to slow down the Oakland offense much.

But that’s just one side of the ball. Oakland has a terrible D, and KC is getting Jamaal Charles back for real this week. They’re gonna get their points, too. I see this one hitting the over pretty handily.

Pick: OVER 46.5