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NFL Props for Week 1 – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Sep 11, 2021 · 10:31 AM PDT

Kyle Pitts holding facemask
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) warms up before a NFL preseason football game against the Miami Dolphins, Saturday, Aug. 21, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
  • There are 14 NFL games scheduled for Sunday of Week 1, providing plenty of player props to choose from
  • We’ve highlighted five player props to bet and a handful of anytime touchdown scorers to target
  • See all the player props for Week 1 and Matt’s best bets below

We managed to live through 214 long days of being unable to bet NFL player props in real games. But man, do these couple days since the season-opener feel long!!

I’ve been scanning the sportsbooks for bad lines all week and have found far too many that I like. Safe to say, I cannot wait for Week 1 to continue on Sunday. I’ve gathered all the major NFL player props below and highlighted the ones that I’ll be betting under the table.

You can quickly jump to a section using the links below:

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Best Bets | Touchdown Props

Week 1 NFL Player Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Zach Wilson (NYJ) 20.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 232.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -185)
Sam Darnold (CAR) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 250.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 25.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 266.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120)
Josh Allen (BUF) 24.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 284.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -200)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) 20.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) 225.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110)
Jared Goff (DET) 20.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 222.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +145 | Un -190)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 246.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tyrod Taylor (HOU) 18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 211.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +190 | Un -260)
Carson Wentz (IND) 21.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 243.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -185)
Russell Wilson (SEA) 24.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 268.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -180 | Un +135)
Kyler Murray (ARI) 23.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 261.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 21.5 (Ov -125 | Un -110) 254.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (WAS) 22.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 262.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Justin Herbert (LAC) 24.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 262.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105)
Joe Burrow (CIN) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 261.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Kirk Cousins (MIN) 21.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 256.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110)
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 20.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 245.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170)
Matt Ryan (ATL) 24.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 295.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -195 | Un +145)
Mac Jones (NE) 19.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105) 232.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -190)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 234.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155)
Baker Mayfield (CLE) 22.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 262.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 26.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 312.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 24.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 272.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -195)
Jameis Winston (NO) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 252.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135)
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 247.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Daniel Jones (NYG) 18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 221.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +135 | Un -185)
Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 18.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 122.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Ty Johnson (NYJ) 7.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 27.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 44.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Najee Harris (PIT) 14.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 84.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Devin Singletary (BUF) 8.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 32.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 49.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Zack Moss (BUF) 7.5 (Ov -125 | Un -110) 29.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 39.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
D’Andre Swift (DET) 10.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 43.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 68.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Raheem Mostert (SF) 15.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 64.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 78.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Chase Edmonds (ARI) 9.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 37.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 64.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Derrick Henry (TEN) 22.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 100.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 111.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Chris Carson (SEA) 14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -125) 57.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 77.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 15.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 83.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 13.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 85.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Austin Ekeler (LAC) 10.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 46.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 97.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 122.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Joe Mixon (CIN) 15.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 65.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 91.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mike Davis (ATL) 12.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 45.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 65.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Miles Sanders (PHI) 15.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 64.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 81.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
James Robinson (JAX) 16.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 66.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 90.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Phillip Lindsay (HOU) 9.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 37.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 44.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Melvin Gordon (DEN) 12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 47.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Saquon Barkley (NYG) 14.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 61.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 92.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) 11.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Kareem Hunt (CLE) 8.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) 34.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Nick Chubb (CLE) 13.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 88.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Aaron Jones (GB) 14.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 60.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 86.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Alvin Kamara (NO) 14.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 61.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 112.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Damien Harris (NE) 14.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 68.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 74.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 10.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 43.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 66.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Corey Davis (NYJ) 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 54.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
DJ Moore (CAR) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 59.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Robby Anderson (CAR) 4.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 51.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Chase Claypool (PIT) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Diontae Johnson (PIT) 5.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) 5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Cole Beasley (BUF) 4.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) 50.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 7.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 89.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 50.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 46.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
George Kittle (SF) 5.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
TJ Hockenson (DET) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 45.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -125 | Un -110)
AJ Brown (TEN) 5.5 (Ov -110 | Un -125) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Julio Jones (TEN) 5.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 66.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) 6.5 (Ov -165 | Un +120) 85.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
AJ Green (ARI) 3.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 38.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DK Metcalf (SEA) 5.5 (Ov -150 | Un +115) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tyler Lockett (SEA) 5.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Michael Pittman Jr (IND) 4.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Zach Pascal (IND) 3.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 40.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Keenan Allen (LAC) 5.5 (Ov -170 | Un +125) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Mike Williams (LAC) 3.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 38.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Logan Thomas (WAS) 3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 45.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 5.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Adam Thielen (MIN) 4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 58.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 5.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 75.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 3.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Tee Higgins (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 59.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -155 | Un +120) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Calvin Ridley (ATL) 5.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 89.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 28.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Kyle Pitts (ATL) 4.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 46.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Russell Gage (ATL) 4.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 50.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Dallas Goedert (PHI) 3.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 42.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
DeVonta Smith (PHI) 3.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 43.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Jalen Reagor (PHI) 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170) 37.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DJ Chark Jr (JAX) 3.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105) 45.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Laviska Shenault Jr (JAX) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Marvin Jones (JAX) 4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 56.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Courtland Sutton (DEN) 3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +120) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 50.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Noah Fant (DEN) 4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -170) 39.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Kenny Golladay (NYG) 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -175) 41.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Sterling Shepard (NYG) 4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Jarvis Landry (CLE) 5.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 57.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Odell Beckham Jr (CLE) 3.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 51.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Travis Kelce (KC) 7.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 88.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tyreek Hill (KC) 6.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Davante Adams (GB) 7.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 88.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Randall Cobb (GB) 3.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130) 37.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Robert Tonyan (GB) 3.5 (Ov +135 | Un -185) 29.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Alvin Kamara (NO) 5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 46.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Marquez Callaway (NO) 3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 45.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
DeVante Parker (MIA) 3.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 46.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 3.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 36.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +105) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jonnu Smith (NE) 2.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 27.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 14.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Hunter Henry (NE) 2.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 14.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)

Odds as of September 11

It should come as no surprise that the biggest line on a passing total for Week 1 is Patrick Mahomes’ 312.5. Mahomes is also just one of three quarterbacks whose passing touchdown line is set at 2.5, with Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen being the other two. The lowest passing total belongs to Tyrod Taylor, whose line is set at just 211.5.

The biggest rushing total is the 100.5 being set for Titans running back Derrick Henry, while the biggest receiving line belongs to Calvin Ridley and Stefon Diggs at 89.5. Both of the Chiefs top options, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, are close behind with a line of 88.5.

1) Michael Pittman Jr Takes Over Colts Receiving Corps

Last season, the Seattle Seahawks ranked 31st against the pass. In an attempt to remedy that, they swapped Shaq Griffin for DJ Reed. Also read, their secondary still isn’t great in spite of having one of the best safeties in the league in Jamal Adams.

Now let me tell you the Colts starting receivers: Michael Pittman Jr, Zach Pascal, and Parris Campbell. TY Hilton is opening the season on the IR. It’s hard to imagine Pittman not being Carson Wentz’ go-to option on Sunday.

Last season Pittman averaged 47.1 receiving yards per game in the Colts’ final nine games. This was while playing second to Hilton for all but one game. What happened in that one game, which was Pittman’s second game back from injury? He saw seven targets that he turned into 56 yards.

The Seahawks were very good against the run last year, only allowing 3.9 yards per carry. I foresee them forcing Indianapolis to throw more often than they’d like to, and I like Pittman to be on the receiving end of plenty of those looks.

Pick: Michael Pittman over 48.5 (-115) – 0.5 units

2) Raheem Mostert Starts Season Off with a Bang

I know everyone is hyped on Trey Sermon. Let me be clear, I’m not here to say you shouldn’t be. What I’m saying is there’s going to be plenty of opportunity for both Niners running backs this week.

San Francisco heads into Week 1 as an 8.5-point favorite over the Lions. This is expected to be one of the best teams in the league taking on one of the worst teams in the league. The only reason this spread isn’t higher is because sportsbooks are giving Detroit some credit for being at home. What happens in blowouts? Teams run the ball more frequently.

Raheem Mostert played in three games last season where the Niners were laying at least seven points. He averaged 79.3 rushing yards per game in those contests, eclipsing 64.5 in two of them. Mostert’s line for carries is set at 15.5 with the over seeing -120 odds. The 29-year-old averages 5.64 yards per carry for his career, so if he gets even close to that many carries, he’s a very strong bet to go over his rushing total.

Pick: Raheem Mostert over 64.5 rushing yards (-115) – 1.5 units

3) Jalen Hurts Goes Over Completions

In the three games Jalen Hurts started and finished last season, he completed 17, 24, and 21 passes. His highest completion percentage in any of those weeks was just 56.7%. In other words, he threw the ball a lot in those games.

With a better receiving corps, which now features DeVonta Smith, a year of experience under his belt, and an offense that is now tailored to his strengths, I like Hurts to surpass his completion total of 20.5. I especially like it when I’m getting +105 odds.

The Falcons also had the third-most passes attempted against them last season, and believe their offense will force the Eagles to be aggressive all day.

Pick: Jalen Hurts over 20.5 completions (+105) – 0.5 units

5) Kyle Pitts Is Not a Typical Tight End

The Atlanta Falcons did not draft a traditional tight end fourth-overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. They drafted an extremely talented wide receiver who designates as a tight end. This is a dude who physically compares to Calvin Johnson.

With Julio Jones gone, Calvin Ridley slots in as the number one target. But I’m not buying into the Russell Gage breakout chatter. Pitts will be the #2 target, and even though Atlanta is now an Arthur Smith team, I still believe that second option will get fed in this offense.

Jones and Ridley played in five games together in 2020 where they each played at least 50% of the offensive snaps – they each left a few games early due to injury. In those five games, Ridley averaged 9.2 targets and Jones averaged nine. Pitts is going to have a game!

Pick: Kyle Pitts over 46.5 receiving yards (-115) – 0.5 units

Week 1 Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) +400 -190
DJ Moore (CAR) +900 +150
Robby Anderson (CAR) +1100 +190
Corey Davis (NYJ) +1400 +240
Elijah Moore (NYJ) +1400 +200
Ty Johnson (NYJ) +1800 +310
Stefon Diggs (BUF) +750 +100
Josh Allen (BUF) +1000 +125
Zack Moss (BUF) +1200 +180
Cole Beasley (BUF) +1200 +180
Najee Harris (PIT) +850 +120
Chase Claypool (PIT) +1200 +190
Diontae Johnson (PIT) +1400 +190
Raheem Mostert (SF) +550 -125
George Kittle (SF) +850 +125
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) +1000 +150
D’Andre Swift (DET) +1000 +150
Jamaal Williams (DET) +1100 +160
Derrick Henry (TEN) +450 -225
AJ Brown (TEN) +900 +115
Julio Jones (TEN) +1200 +150
Kyler Murray (ARI) +1000 +130
Chase Edmonds (ARI) +1000 +140
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) +1000 +120
Jonathan Taylor (IND) +700 -115
Michael Pittman Jr (IND) +1200 +175
Nyheim Hines (IND) +1600 +240
Chris Carson (SEA) +750 -105
DK Metcalf (SEA) +750 -110
Tyler Lockett (SEA) +800 +100
Antonio Gibson (WAS) +650 -105
Terry McLaurin (WAS) +1000 +150
Logan Thomas (WAS) +1200 +180
Austin Ekeler (LAC) +750 +110
Keenan Allen (LAC) +800 +120
Dalvin Cook (MIN) +450 -190
Justin Jefferson (MIN) +750 +100
Adam Thielen (MIN) +850 +125
Joe Mixon (CIN) +750 +100
Tee Higgins (CIN) +1000 +150
Tyler Boyd (CIN) +1500 +225
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +1600 +240
Mike Davis (ATL) +800 +115
Calvin Ridley (ATL) +650 -105
Kyle Pitts (ATL) +900 +130
Miles Sanders (PHI) +1000 +150
DeVonta Smith (PHI) +1200 +190
Jalen Hurts (PHI) +1800 +275
Brandin Cooks (HOU) +1000 +165
Phillip Lindsay (HOU) +1200 +190
Tyrod Taylor (HOU) +1400 +225
James Robinson (JAX) +700 +100
Marvin Jones Jr (JAX) +850 +140
Laviska Shenault Jr (JAX) +1200 +200
Melvin Gordon (DEN) +900 +150
Javonte Williams (DEN) +1000 +175
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) +1000 +190
Saquon Barkley (NYG) +650 +105
Kenny Golladay (NYG) +1100 +190
Tyreek Hill (KC) +650 -140
Travis Kelce (KC) +650 -125
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) +800 -105
Nick Chubb (CLE) +850 +100
Kareem Hunt (CLE) +1000 +130
Aaron Jones (GB) +700 -120
Davante Adams (GB) +550 -150
Robert Tonyan (GB) +1100 +150
Alvin Kamara (NO) +600 -140
Marquez Callaway (NO) +1600 +240
Damien Harris (NE) +700 +105
Jakobi Meyers (NE) +1200 +210
Jonnu Smith (NE) +1300 +225
Myles Gaskin (MIA) +1000 +160
DeVante Parker (MIA) +1200 +190
Mike Gesicki (MIA) +1200 +200

Based off the odds, Derrick Henry is the player most likely to score a touchdown in Week 1. His odds of finding the endzone are a short -225. However, Christian McCaffrey is the player most likely to score the first touchdown in his respective game. CMC’s odds to score the first touchdown are +400, while Henry’s are +450.

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Here’s who I like to find the end zone and why:

  1. Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (+275): I truly thought this was a mistake by the sportsbooks. Hurts had a rushing touchdown in two of four starts last year. He carried the ball an average of 11.5 times for 68 yards per game. This is a ridiculous line. He’s as short as +175 at some books. (1 unit)
  2. Kyler Murray anytime touchdown (+130): Murray had ten rushing touchdowns through the first nine games last season, finding the endzone in all but one. The Cardinals were 6-3 at this point. Then Murray was dealing with some shoulder injuries and only rushed for one touchdown over the final seven games as Arizona went 2-5 in that stretch. Using his legs in the red zone leads to team success. (1 unit)
  3. Nick Chubb anytime touchdown (+100): You’ll find this line as short as -165 at some sportsbooks, so jump on this value at DraftKings. Chubb scored in nine of 12 games for Cleveland last year, with one of those misses being a game he got injured in early. Cleveland knows they have to slow this game down with their ground game. (1 unit)
  4. Corey Davis anytime touchdown (+240): Davis is the favorite target of his rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. The fifth-overall pick from the 2017 NFL Draft knows how to get open and presents a big target for his QB. With this price as short as +175 elsewhere, I’m sprinkling a little on Davis to find the endzone at some point. (0.5 units)
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