NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages for Dolphins vs Bills Wild Card Weekend
- Buffalo is getting over 97% of the money to win outright in the Dolphins vs Bills public betting splits ahead of their Wild Card matchup
- A whopping 79% of the public betting money is slamming the over total of 43.5
- Read below for the public betting splits and trends for Dolphins vs Bills
It’s the most lopsided matchup of Wild Card Weekend, as the Buffalo Bills (13-3, 7-1 home) host the Miami Dolphins (9-8, 3-6 away).
Buffalo finished second in the AFC behind the KC Chiefs, while the Dolphins backed into the postseason berth, dropping five of their last six. That win came in the final week of the regular season, sending them to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Miami’s biggest strength — an explosive offense — is severely compromised Sunday, as Tua Tagovailoa will miss the game as he deals with another concussion. Teddy Bridgewater (finger) is also questionable, meaning the Fins will likely turn to third-stringer Skyler Thompson at quarterback.
Not surprisingly, in the Dolphins vs Bills preview, the public is all over Buffalo, with NFL public betting trends showing over 77% of the bets on the home team.
Let’s break it down further in the Dolphins vs Bills public betting splits and key trends.
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Dolphins vs Bills ATS Betting Splits
With the possibility of Tua suiting up in the Wild Card round, there were opening lines that were less than a 7-point spread in favor of the Bills.
Once Miami’s worst-case scenario was announced, the lines rocketed past double-digits. At DraftKings, the spread now sits as the Dolphins as 13.5-point road underdogs, with a few books still offering up to an extra half-point, to a full two-TD spread. There’s no doubt from the public, who’ve put 81.3% of the money and 77.7% of the bets on the Bills covering.
The Bills were one of 12 teams in the NFL this season to have a winning record against the spread, with a record of 8-7-1. They were vulnerable at Highmark Stadium, going just 3-4-0 ATS in seven home games this season.
dawson. knox. #NEvsBUF | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/muWZjM80FD
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 8, 2023
More recently, they’ve been a rough wager against teams with winning records, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five.
Miami has gone 3-2 ATS this season as a road underdog, and the underdog has dominated this recent head-to-head, running a 4-1-1 ATS record in the last six games.
The Dolphins have not had much success in Buffalo lately, though: they’re 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 in upstate New York,
Miami vs Buffalo Total Betting Splits
The current total at DraftKings is 43.5, but there’s been some fluctuation. A week ago, some books had this total below 40, and has gone as high as 46.5 before settling at this number.
The betting public is slamming the over, with 79% of the money and 76.2% of the bets banking on a combined 44 points or more. It’s a good wager: the over has gone 7-1 in the last eight head-to-heads in Buffalo.
The Bills enter this one as the second-highest scoring team in the NFL, pumping out 28.4 points per game. They enter the playoffs having dropped 30+ in three straight games.
Miami is 11th in scoring, putting up 23.4 points per game, but they haven’t shown much offensively under Thompson’s guidance. Last week, they topped the Jets 11-6, with Thompson generating three field goals, and the defense scoring a safety.
He was GONE when his feet hit the ground! 🐧 @D1__JW
📺: #MIAvsBUF on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/OppdDaKY2o pic.twitter.com/tdhvjv5Y2i— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2022
Thompson went 20-for-31 for 152 yards, with no TD’s and no interceptions. That might affect your thought process as you ready your Dolphins vs Bills player prop bets. Their running attack might be a struggle too, with Raheem Mostert already ruled out, and a dinged up O-line, as outlined in the Dolphins vs Bills injury report.
In their two meetings this season, they’ve ended up on both sides of this total. Miami beat Buffalo 21-19 in a scorcher at Hard Rock in Week 3. The Bills returned the favor at home in Week 15, taking it 32-29 in a chilly tilt that finished in an all-out snowstorm,
Dolphins vs Bills Moneyline Splits
For the biggest indicator of how lopsided this matchup is, look no further than the bets on an outright winner.
An overwhelming 97.1% of the bets and 71.2% of the money are on the Bills to advance to the next round.
Most sportsbooks have settled in on Miami at +625 odds, but if you’re into the upset, you can find sites that are offering them for as long as +700.
For the Bills, they’re a hefty -900 favorite on the moneyline, but there is some wiggle room there if you go fishing for shorter odds. Still, we’re not talking an exceptional value, but a figure as low as -699 is substantial. It might be worth considering in a parlay.
Buffalo has lost just twice since their Week 7 bye, the latest loss coming way back in Week 10 to Minnesota. In fact, they have lost three games by a total of eight points all season.
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
