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NFL Public Betting Splits for Bengals vs Chiefs in AFC Title Game

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Jan 29, 2023 · 8:29 AM PST

Joe Burrow salutes the crowd after beating the Chiefs
Dec 4, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs off the field after the victory over the Kansas City Chiefs at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

  • A whopping 73% of the spread money is backing Cincinnati in the Bengals vs Chiefs public betting splits ahead of the AFC Championship Game
  • Over 48 is garnering 66% of the tickets and 71% of all money wagered on the total
  • Get a full breakdown of the Bengals vs Chiefs public betting splits and key trends below

This year’s AFC Championship Game will be a rematch of the last year’s classic that saw the Bengals erase a double-digit halftime deficit en route to an overtime upset of the Chiefs. Read on for the Bengals vs Chiefs public betting splits.

Since then, Cincinnati has proceeded to beat KC again this season, running Joe Burrow’s all-time record versus Patrick Mahomes to 3-0.

This game has seen some wild line movement per the NFL public betting trends, and there’s a chance we see more leading up to kickoff. Money is currently pouring in on the Bengals and if online sportsbooks take much more Cincinnati action they’ll have no choice but to shorten the spread.

Bengals vs Chiefs ATS Betting Splits

As of this morning, the Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites. This line opened at KC -2.5, but that number was bet down instantly. Cincy backers smelled blood in light of Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury – more on that later, and pounded the Bengals as short underdogs.

That trend continued for a couple of days, and Cincinnati went from a 2.5 point ‘dog to a 2.5 point favorite. As the week progressed, Mahomes’ injury situation started to improve, and that brought KC money into the fold. Chiefs backers bet KC from a short underdog back to a short favorite where they currently sit.

At the current number, however, the action is almost entirely on Cincinnati. The Bengals are drawing 71% of the spread wagers and 73% of the ATS handle.

If you’re diving deep into the trends this week, it’s likely you’ll find yourself wanting to back Burrow and Co. as well. Cincinnati is 13-5 against the spread this season, while Kanas City is just 7-11. The Chiefs 11 ATS loses are the most by any team in the Super Bowl era that advanced to a conference championship game.

Per the Bengals vs Chiefs picks, Cincinnati is 21-5 against the spread in their last 26 games, and 19-1 ATS in their last 20 games where they’re not laying more than 7 points. Burrow has covered in five of his six career playoff games, and is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.

Joe Burrow Playoff Starts

Opponent Result
Buffalo Bills W 27-10
Baltimore Ravens W 24-17
LA Rams L 23-20
KC Chiefs W 27-24
Tennessee Titans W 19-16
Las Vegas Raiders W 26-19

The AFC Championship Game will mark the 15th straight playoff game Kansas City has been favored in, and the 13th straight of Mahomes’ career. The runaway NFL MVP odds favorite is 9-3 straight up in the playoffs, and 7-5 against the spread.

Cincinnati vs Kansas City Total Betting Splits

Speaking of Mahomes, there’s a good chance his ankle is much healthier than most people believe. He was seen walking and jogging this week without a limp and was a full participant in practice all week per the Bengals vs Chiefs injury report.

Mahomes suffered a similar injury in the season opener of the 2019 campaign and proceeded to play the very next week. He threw for 443 yards in that outing, with 4 TD and 0 INT.

An optimistic outlook for Mahomes’ health has bettors leaning towards the over in this contest. The total has held at 48 all week, and at that number the over is drawing 71% of the wagers and 66% of the handle.

Last year’s AFC Championship Game produced a total of 51 points, but needed overtime to get there. Cincinnati was 10-7-1 to the under this season, while its victory last week over Buffalo came in 11.5 points under the number. KC has seen 10 of its 18 games fall short of the total, including its win in the Divisional Round.

Bengals vs Chiefs Moneyline Splits

As far as the moneyline market goes, the ticket count and handle favors Cincinnati as well. The Bengals are drawing 71% of the bets, and 62% of the money as +105 underdogs.

The gap has actually tightened over the weekend and now it seems KC is drawing the attention of big money bettors. The Chiefs are garnering 38% of the handle off of just 29% of the bets.

We all know how important Mahomes is to Kansas City’s success, but having Ja’Marr Chase on the field is nearly as significant for Cincinnati. The Bengals are 11-3 when Chase plays this season, and 14-4 in their last 18 games that he suits up. He’s a feature target in our Bengals vs Chiefs player props, where you can get the explosive receiver at +100 odds to score a TD.


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