Most NFL Rushing Yards Odds: Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor & Derrick Henry Favored
- Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb is the +450 favorite to lead the NFL in rushing in 2023
- Two-time NFL rushing champ Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans and 2021 champ Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts are the co-second betting choices at +650
- Reigning leader Josh Jacobs, embroiled in a contract dispute with the Las Vegas Raiders, is given long shot odds of +1500 to repeat in the most NFL rushing yards odds
When studying the list of recent winners of the NFL rushing yardage title, the one thing to learn is that the more things change, the more they keep changing.
In the world of football, running backs are an endangered species. Some fresh produce has a longer shelf life than the best before date of an NFL RB in today’s game.
NFL player props from the oddsmakers seem to be in tune with this trend. They’re listing Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns as the +450 favorite to wear the NFL rushing crown in 2023 in the most NFL rushing yards odds. Should Chubb end up winning, he’ll be the third first-time winner of the title in as many years.
2023 NFL Rushing Leader Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nick Chubb (Browns) | +450 |
| Jonathan Taylor (Colts) | +650 |
| Derrick Henry (Titans) | +650 |
| Bijan Robinson (Falcons) | +1000 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) | +1500 |
| Saquon Barkley (Giants) | +1500 |
| Josh Jacobs (Raiders) | +1500 |
| Tony Pollard (Cowboys) | +1600 |
| Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks) | +3000 |
| Miles Sanders (Panthers) | +3000 |
| Najee Harris (Steelers) | +3000 |
| Justin Fields (Bears) | +3000 |
| Travis Etienne Jr (Jaguars) | +3500 |
| Aaron Jones (Packers) | +3500 |
| Alexander Mattison (Vikings) | +3500 |
| Javonte Williams (Broncos) | +3500 |
| JK Dobbins (Ravens) | +3500 |
| Joe Mixon (Bengals) | +3500 |
| Dameon Pierce (Texans) | +3500 |
| Christian McCaffrey (49ers) | +3500 |
| Breece Hall (Jets) | +3500 |
| Austin Ekeler (Chargers) | +3500 |
| Rashaad Penny (Eagles) | +4000 |
| Dalvin Cook (free agent) | +4000 |
Two of the past three NFL rushing leaders, Derrick Henry (2019-20) of the Tennessee Titans and Jonathan Taylor (2021) of the Indianapolis Colts, are set as co-second choices in this betting market at odds of +650 in the odds above. Last season’s champion Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders is given a betting line of +1500. He’s currently embroiled in a contract dispute with the club and his status for training camp and even the start of the season remains uncertain.
At +3000, Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields is a top-10 contender for the title. He’s the only player in the top-10 of betting lines for both NFL rushing leader and in the NFL MVP odds.
Odds as of July 10 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Is It Chubb’s Time to Lead NFL In Rushing?
Since arriving in the NFL six years ago, Chubb has frequently flirted with the NFL rushing title. He’s rated among the top-10 rushers in each of his five previous seasons.
Chubb was third last season with a career-best 1,525 yards. In both 2021 (1,259 yards) and 2019 (1,494 yards) he ran second overall.
Nick Chubb vs Derrick Henry
Which RB are you taking? pic.twitter.com/6KAIEmFlLM
— PFF (@PFF) July 7, 2023
NFL next gen stats show that during the 2022 season, Chubb had 47 runs of 10+ yards, the most of any back. A total of 15.6% of his touches resulted in gains of 10 or more yards.
A full season of Deshaun Watson at quarterback gives Cleveland another offensive threat and that could help to open up lanes to enable Chubb to go rambling downfield.
Should You Be Backing a Rookie to Run for Title?
When a rookie leads the NFL in rushing, they’re generally destined to be special backs. Ezekiel Elliott did so with the 2016 Dallas Cowboys, joining a select group that includes Hall of Famers Eric Dickerson (1983) and Edgerrin James (1999).
The A. pic.twitter.com/ogCQ5Ra1N6
— Bijan Robinson (@Bijan5Robinson) July 6, 2023
Some savvy football experts believe Bijan Robinson belongs in this conversation. He rushed for 1,580 yards last season with the Texas Longhorns.
The top draft pick of the Atlanta Falcons and favorite in the NFL OROY odds is arriving to a perfect scenario. Head coach Arthur Smith prefers a run-heavy offense and Robinson is a three-down back. At a betting line of +1000, he’s certainly offering plenty of value.
Fade Some of the Usual Suspects
Both Henry and Taylor will be chained to really bad football teams this season, which will inhibit their title chances. Jacobs and Saquon Barkley (+1500) of the New York Giants are dangerous bets because their contract status remains up in the air.
NFL Rushing Leaders
| Year | Player (Team) | Rushing Yards |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Josh Jacobs (Raiders) | 1,653 |
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor (Colts) | 1,811 |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry (Titans) | 2,027 |
| 2019 | Derrick Henry (Titans) | 1,540 |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) | 1,434 |
One back who could be lying in the weeds and ready to make a run at the title is Travis Etienne (+3500) of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are a team that’s trending upwards. Etienne averaged over five yards per carry in both the regular and postseason in 2022.
As much as Chubb is the safe pick in the most NFL rushing yards odds, the fact of the matter is that he’s never been able to get to the top of the mountain. Take the price and go with Robinson for the upset win as NFL rushing leader.
Pick: Bijan Robinson (Falcons) +1000
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
