Which Top NFL Rushers Could Be Nearing the Running Back Cliff?

The running back cliff is a real thing in the NFL.

Peak years for elite rushers do not last more than a few years in most cases, as the wear and tear of the position quickly builds up.

More often than not, you can see it coming if you know where to look. I analyzed the trajectory of the top backs in the NFL as the 2025-26 season went on to figure out which backs could hit that cliff in the 2026-27 season, and the bets that could be profitable because of it.

What Stats Can Measure the Running Back Cliff?

Judging a running back by his yardage gained or yards per carry is a good way to view his overall success. But with so many factors that go into a successful carry, those don’t tell the whole story for the individual.

I looked at broken tackles, carries per broken tackle, yards after contact, yards after contact per play, and how those changed over the course of the season, to ID any possible running back cliff candidates.

All stats were pulled from Radar360.

Running Backs Who Could Be Nearing A Cliff

Two massive names saw their yards after contact per carry decrease dramatically in the final third of the season.

Both Jonathan Taylor and James Cook ranked among the bottom three in the league in that category, with Taylor’s drop being the most dramatic.

Taylor was averaging 3.03 yards after contact per carry through Week 12, but that number dropped to 1.4 in Weeks 13 through 18. The 1.64 difference was nearly half a yard ahead of the second biggest drop, TreyVeon Henderson at -1.15.

Now, Taylor does get quite a caveat, as Colts quarterback Daniel Jones tore his Achilles in Week 14, causing the entire Colts offense to fall off a cliff. Because of that, Taylor’s drop is less concerning for him personally.

Cook, however, does not get that grace. He went from 2.61 yards after contact per carry to 1.51, a 1.1 yard decrease. Cook had 309 regular-season carries in 2025-26, by far his biggest workload.

That could mean Cook’s drop was simply fatigue at the end of one season. But, the reason the running back cliff exists is that those carries accumulate throughout a career, and now he’s going to be entering a season with a lot of miles on his legs, despite being just 26.

Other backs who were among the bottom 10 when it came to YAC per carry decrease include Travis Etienne Jr. (-1.06), Breece Hall (-0.89), Jaylen Waren (-0.77) and Josh Jacobs (-0.76).

Running Backs Who Got Stronger Late in the Season

Two backs stand out on the other end of that stat, one for his consistency and another who may have proven his breakout was far from a fluke.

First, we need to have a conversation about Derrick Henry and whether he’s made of Adamantium.

He continued to be a late-season monstrosity in 2025-26, despite being in his 10th season and turning 32. His jump from 1.99 yards after contact per carry in Weeks 1-12 to 2.97 in Weeks 13-18 was fourth in the league.

Henry didn’t break a ton of tackles this past season, but his ability to punish defenses in December continued despite another 300+ carry season. One day, he will start to break down, but I am not ready to bet on that day yet.

The other back that jumped off the page when looking through these statistics was De’Von Achane. He averaged 3.49 yards after contact per carry in the final third of the season, a 0.64 jump from the first 12 weeks, good for seventh in the league.

This stood out because it was Achane’s biggest workload of his career, as he finished with 237 carries and 305 total touches. He had 281 touches the year before, with 203 carries.

That does not seem to be adding up in a negative way for the speedy back, at least not yet.

Rhamondre Stevenson actually had the biggest jump down the stretch, averaging 4.78 yards after contact per carry in the final six weeks, well above the 1.84 he was averaging through Week 12. This is particularly intriguing because his teammate, Henderson, saw such a dramatic drop.

Was this Henderson hitting a rookie wall while Stevenson was more fresh? Possibly. But definitely something to watch for in New England this fall.

Both Los Angeles Rams backs found themselves within the top 10 here, with Blake Corum making the second-biggest jump in the league as his workload increased. He averaged 2.29 YAC per carry in the final six weeks on 63 carries, compared to 1.13 in Weeks 1-12 on just 82 carries.

Kyren Williams didn’t slow down, either, going from 1.8 to 2.35 yards after contact per carry down the stretch. But Corum did eat into the workload, as Williams had 170 carries in the first 12 weeks and 89 in the final six. That’s a backfield share that went from 67% to 58% in favor of Williams.

Where do Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Christian McCaffrey Fall?

Taylor, Cook, Henry and Achane are among the best backs in the league, but what about their Tier 1 counterparts who may not have finished near the top or bottom of these lists?

Christian McCaffrey actually fared the best compared to Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs when it came to YAC per carry change over the final six weeks of the season.

He was averaging 1.46 yards after contact per carry through the first 12 weeks, and 1.67 over the final six. Gibbs dropped off slightly, going from 1.79 to 1.44, as did Robinson, going from 2.47 to 2.1. Robinson’s late-season number was still strongest, despite having the biggest drop of the three.

But the numbers for those three don’t raise any red flags.

Bets to Make Based on Advanced Running Back Stats

Now comes the hard (but fun!) part, turning these numbers into bets you can use to build your bankroll at the best NFL betting apps.

Sportsbooks have these numbers, too, so they’re very smart about this. Taylor and Cook’s season rushing totals are both set at over/under 1,224.5 at DraftKings. Those are pretty significant drops from last year for both.

So you have to do some digging in NFL futures odds and NFL rushing yards props.

Breece Hall Under 900.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at BetMGM): Hall is one of the players identified as trending down toward the end of the season, even though he eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. He also faced his heaviest ever rushing workload, and was under 60 yards in six of the Jets last eight games.

TreyVeon Henderson Under 700.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at BetMGM): Henderson’s late-season swoon could be chalked up to being a rookie and hitting a bit of a wall, but there was clearly a wall as his teammate was getting stronger than any other back in the league in the same timeframe. While it’s too early to see a cliff, it is concerning that he’s dealing with injuries this preseason, as well. The combination is enough to jump at this Under.

Blake Corum Over 674.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings): Corum’s late-season upswing in both production and volume tell me it’s time to buy in on the former Michigan man. Kyren Williams isn’t going away, as he’s also proven to close out strong, but Corum showed he could thrive in a bigger role over the final six weeks, and I’d expect that leads to a bigger share of carries throughout the season.