- The Saints have signed QB Derek Carr to a four-year, $150 million dollar contract
- New Orleans is now +4000 to win the Super Bowl, and are favored to take the NFC South
- Are they a strong option to place a wager on with their newest acquisition?
After a disappointing first season in the post Sean Payton era, the New Orleans Saints have shaken things up, bringing quarterback Derek Carr into the fold. Last year, they went 7-10 to place third in the NFC South in head coach Dennis Allen’s first year at the helm. New Orleans signed him to a hefty four-year, $150 million dollar deal to replace Andy Dalton, who started 14 games for them last season.
The entire division has huge uncertainty at the quarterback position, and it’s a wide open battle for the NFC South crown. The Saints are now +140 favorites to take it, but are still +4000 longshots in the Super Bowl odds. Are they worthy of a wager? Read on for analysis.
Super Bowl 58 Odds
|Kansas City Chiefs||+600|
|San Francisco 49ers||+800|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2200|
|New York Jets||+2500|
|Los Angeles Rams||+3500|
|Green Bay Packers||+3500|
|New Orleans Saints||+4000|
|New York Giants||+4000|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+4000|
|New England Patriots||+6000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+6500|
The current Super Bowl favorites are the Chiefs, Bills and 49ers as seen in the odds above. The Saints are +4000. Odds as of March 6th at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Head coach Dennis Allen knows Carr from their time together with the Raiders, as Allen was their HC for four games in Carr’s rookie year in 2014.
Saints Super Bowl Odds Have Barely Moved
After acquiring Derek Carr to replace incumbent Andy Dalton, their Super Bowl odds haven’t dramatically changed. Prior to signing Carr, they were as high as +5000 to win the Lombardi Trophy, and they’re now down to +4000.
In Carr, they’re getting a quality quarterback that has thrown 217 touchdowns against 99 interceptions in his career, though his 60.8% completion percentage was his worst since his rookie year in 2014.
Saints' odds since the Derek Carr news ⚜️
Super Bowl: +5000 ➡️ +4000
NFC Conference: +2200 ➡️ +1500
NFC South: +210 ➡️ +170 pic.twitter.com/gDSy6VPgyt
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) March 6, 2023
The Saints were in the bottom half of the league in yards per contest, and exactly middle of the round in passing yards/game, as they ranked 16th. Andy Dalton’s play reflected that, as he was 19th in yards and 15th in TD passes, with 18. He did, however, post the ninth best QB rating at 95.2, compared to Carr’s 24th ranked 86.3.
NFC South Division Odds
|New Orleans Saints||+140|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+390|
NFC South Up for Grabs
The one thing going for New Orleans is a division that is in total flux, with the other three teams all searching for answers at the pivotal quarterback position. Their defense was strong last season, ranking fifth in yards allowed/game, and ninth in points surrendered per contest.
The Saints have already scored their first victory in the division, in a manner of speaking, as Carolina was rumored to be one of the teams in on acquiring Carr. Frank Reich is the new main man at the helm for the Panthers, with the team struggling for years to find a competent signal caller. With Tom Brady retiring in Tampa Bay, currently their QB position dealing with uncertainty with 2021 second round pick Kyle Trask potentially going to be their man.
The Best Bet
Expecting Derek Carr to waltz into the Bayou and lead the team to the promised land is probably far too tall a task, particularly with him never having won a playoff game in his nine-year career.
The NFC South though, is totally attainable, which is why they’re the favorite for the division. With the other three squads very much a question mark, Saints to win the division is a solid call.
Pick: Saints to win NFC South (+140)