San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Odds, Spread & Prediction for Thursday Night Football

• The San Francisco 49ers visit the Seattle Seahawks in a huge NFC West clash on Thanksgiving night
• Seattle trails San Francisco by one game in the division standings
• See the 49ers vs Seahawks odds, point spread, and picks for their Thanksgiving game (Nov. 23)

The San Francisco 49ers (7-3, 3-2 away, ATS) have a chance to take a stranglehold on the NFC West tonight when they visit the Seattle Seahawks (6-4, 4-1 home, ATS) at Lumen Field at 5:20 pm PT/8:20 pm ET. Coming off a devastating 17-16 loss to the LA Rams, Seattle is now a game back of the Niners in the division, and has to travel to San Francisco in two weeks’ time.

Realistically, if Seattle has designs on claiming its first NFC West title since 2020, this is a must-win game. But the odds paint an ugly portrait of their chances. Seattle is a seven-point home underdog against the reigning division-winners.

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Odds

The Seahawks are long +280 moneyline underdogs to win straight-up, which would move them into a tie atop the NFC West with San Francisco. The Niners are -358 in the Week 12 NFL odds; a San Fran victory would open a two-game lead on Seattle with just six games to play.

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Odds as of Nov. 23, 2023, on the BetMGM Sportsbook app. New users can claim the BetMGM bonus for November to bet on all of the NFL’s Thanksgiving games. 

The NFL public betting splits for this Thanksgiving nightcap are all over the road team. San Francisco is getting 77% of ATS handle as touchdown favorites, along with 85% of moneyline handle. The public has a lean to the under (44.0) with 62% of game-total handle on the under as of 10 am ET.

San Francisco Routs Jacksonville, Tampa to Get Back on Track

The 49ers raced out to a 5-0 start, becoming the favorites in the Super Bowl 58 odds in the process, before dropping an unfathomable three straight games to Cleveland, Minnesota, and Cincinnati before their bye week.

Coming out of their Week 9 bye, Kyle Shanahan’s team has looked arguably the best it has all season. In Week 10, the Niners pasted the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3 on the road. They followed that up with a 27-14 home win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game in which they out-gained their opponents 420 to 287.

San Francisco is currently second in the NFL in DVOA (first on offense, eighth on defense), trailing only the Baltimore Ravens.  Christian McCaffrey continues to lead the league in rushing yards by a wide margin (825 yards, 136 more than Miami’s Raheem Mostert), while second-year QB Brock Purdy leads the NFL in both passer rating (115.1) and QBR (77.0) thanks to a 70.2 completion percentage and 18-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. McCaffrey is the most-favored to score a TD tonight in the 49ers vs Seahawks props.

The Niners have an outstanding +122 point differential on the year, only trailing the Ravens and Cowboys (both +127).

49ers vs Seahawks Recent Results

As the table above shows, the winner of the game has also covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings.

Seattle Lets One Slip Away Against Rams

The Seahawks enter Thanksgiving with a sour taste in their mouth after letting a nine-point fourth-quarter lead slip away at the Rams last time out. Seattle was up 16-7 with under eight minutes to go in the game, but a Darrell Henderson touchdown followed by a Lucas Havrisik field goal with 1:31 remaining gave the Rams a one-point lead.

Seattle’s offense put Jason Myers in position for a 55-yard field-goal attempt with three seconds left, but it went wide right.

Missed field goal from Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams win 17-16 #Seahawks #Rams #Nflpic.twitter.com/i6V6TgqkEK

— FirstSportz NFL (@FirstSportz_NFL) November 20, 2023

Seattle’s defense allowed the Rams to go on 68 and 75-yards scoring drives in the final quarter without Cooper Kupp, who left the game early with an ankle injury.

Seattle had more yards on the day (291 to 267) but shot itself in the foot with twelve penalties for 130 yards (44.6% of their total offensive production on the day).

Despite sitting two games over .500, the Seahawks have a slightly negative point differential (-2) and sit a league-average 16th in DVOA (11th on offense, 19th on defense).

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction

The 49ers’ ability to run up the score is scary. Their 31-point road victory over the Jaguars, who are 7-3 on the year and sit top-ten in DVOA themselves, was the most complete performance by any team this season. Tampa was lucky to keep the game within two touchdowns in Week 11.

But the Seahawks still benefit from one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL. Since their Week 1 abomination against the Rams (30-13 home loss), they are 4-0 at Lumen Field, including a win over the 7-3 Cleveland Browns. They did lose four games at home last season, but only one (the aforementioned 21-13 loss to the Niners) came by more than six points.

Niners vs Seahawks pick: Seattle Seahawks +7 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023 NFL betting record:

• Moneyline: 2-1 (+0.57 units)
• ATS: 2-1 (+0.82 units)
• Player props: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
• Total 4-4 (-0.61 units)