Saquon Barkley Running Away with Offensive Rookie of the Year as QBs Struggle
- Saquon Barkley (-260) is the odds-on favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Baker Mayfield is the closest to Barkley in the odds at (+430)
- With such a big gap between Barkley, Mayfield, and Sam Darnold (+500) is there anyone else worth betting?
Saquon Barkley is running away with the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
At the midway point of the season, Barkley has taken the NFL by storm as its newest multi-threat running back. He can run it, he can catch it, and I’m sure if the Giants let him, he can throw it.
After all, he did it in college.
So is there anyone that can catch Barkley in the odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Average 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
As you see in the graph above, Barkley has taken this race over in a matter of a week, as his stiffest competitor, Baker Mayfield, is going in the wrong direction.
Odds to Win 2018 OROY
| Player | Pos | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | RB | -265 |
| Baker Mayfield, CLE | QB | +500 |
| Sam Darnold, NYJ | QB | +500 |
| Kerryon Johnson, DET | RB | +2000 |
| Sony Michel, NE | RB | +2000 |
Should Saquon Barkley Be Such a Heavy Favorite For OROY?
Likely not.
Barkley is currently seventh in the NFL rushing race with 519 yards. In terms of rookies, he’s second behind Denver’s Phillip Lindsay.
Lindsay also averages a full yard more per carry than Barkley. He nets 5.7 yards a run, while Barkley is at 4.7.
1,016 yards from scrimmage. Seven touchdowns.
And we're only halfway through the season!Why @saquon is the Offensive Rookie of the Year! (via @BaldyNFL) pic.twitter.com/SVX0yIQw12
— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2018
But Lindsay has the advantage of playing with Case Keenum. And while Keenum hasn’t been lighting the world on fire, he has been better than Eli Manning.
The Giants’ offensive line has also been in shambles all season long.
Saquon Barkley Catching On in the NFL
Barkley has also been dominating in the passing game, and it isn’t even close.
His 58 receptions are tops among rookies. In fact, it’s 24 better than the Colts’ Nyheim Hines, and his 497 yards are 87 better than the Cardinals’ Christian Kirk.
Rushing: 130 yards, TD
Receiving: 9 catches for 99 yards.Even in a loss, @Saquon was SPECIAL. ? #GiantsPride #PHIvsNYG? pic.twitter.com/f2SAAD3idO
— NFL (@NFL) October 12, 2018
Barkley is also the only rookie to average more than 60 receiving yards a game (62.1). In terms of rushing, he’s averaging 64.9 yards per game.
He’s the only player in the NFL to average over 60 in both categories.
He also compares very favorably with last year’s winner Alvin Kamara.
| 728 | Rushing Yards | 519 |
| 6.1 | YPC | 4.7 |
| 81 | Catches | 58 |
| 826 | Receiving Yards | 497 |
| 10.2 | Yards/Catch | 8.6 |
| 13 | Total TDs | 7 |
Can Rookie QBs Run Down Saquon Barkley
The big reason why Barkley is running away with the odds, is because the rookie QB class has struggled.
Josh Allen is hurt, but struggled when healthy with five interceptions to just two touchdowns. He was also averaging just 138.7 yards a game.
| Rookie QB | Completion % | Yards | TD/INT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield, CLE | 58.3 | 1471 | 8/6 |
| Sam Darnold, NYJ | 55.2 | 1705 | 11/10 |
| Josh Rosen, ARZ | 55.6 | 1072 | 5/6 |
Josh Rosen is in the same boat. His anemic offense in Arizona has already undergone massive changes because of a lack in production.
While Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have provided their teams with a small spark, they haven’t been good enough either.
Darnold leads in touchdowns (11), but his ten picks take the shine off of that number. Mayfield has had his share of clutch performances against the Jets and Buccaneers, but he hasn’t risen above anyone in the draft class.
The highest graded rookie quarterbacks in the NFL so far this season. pic.twitter.com/zHernrtLkX
— PFF (@PFF) November 1, 2018
Two Names Stand Out, but Still Trail Saquon Barkley
There are two interesting names behind Barkley in the OROY race, but they’re deep dives.
While a knee injury sidelined him against the Bears and Bills, Sony Michel (+1900 average) was gaining ground on Barkley.
Despite missing nearly two full games, Michel is fourth among rookies in rushing yards with 422. He’s also averaging a rookie-best 70.3 yards per game on the ground, and had run off three straight 95+ yard efforts before getting hurt.
#SonyMichel
This quick video hints
A) injury not MCL
B) good sign but not likely this week
C) projects well for @packers https://t.co/iiPF9BPLSy— David J. Chao – ProFootballDoc (@ProFootballDoc) October 27, 2018
The Patriots have two games left before their bye week. His usage against the Packers and Titans will be key to him staying in the race.
The other? It’s an even deeper dive.
Courtland Sutton (+2000).
Hear me out here. While he hasn’t had much of an impact so far, he was blocked by Demaryius Thomas.
Now that he’s out of Denver, that opens up snaps for Sutton. The team has called him “a unicorn”, and if he’s as talented as advertised and ready for a full-time role, he could dominate down the stretch.
Following the trade of Demaryius Thomas, Courtland Sutton became the week's top waiver add. pic.twitter.com/704AxPORFL
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 31, 2018
A good performance by Sutton and a swoon from the woeful Giants could see Sutton shoot up the rankings.
Saquon Barkley deserves to be the favorite
All of that said, Barkley has performed in the face of adversity.
Surrounded by a struggling team, the NFL knows his name and is watching his every step. Despite the Giants’ record, he’s drawing fans and analysts to their games.
With Michel and Sutton sitting there as volatile picks in the OROY race, it’s impossible to go against Saquon.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
