Seahawks vs Raiders Picks, Splits & Injuries (Nov 15)

• Rookie QB Fernando Mendoza makes his first NFL start for Las Vegas against a banged-up Seattle squad
• Injuries to Sam Darnold and Seattle’s offensive line create clear betting value on the spread
• See our top Seahawks vs Raiders picks, including a Brock Bowers touchdown prop

The Las Vegas Raiders host the Seattle Seahawks at Allegiant Stadium this afternoon, with kickoff set for 4:05 PM ET on CBS. The Seahawks (5-4-0 SU, 3-4-2 ATS, 4-5-0 O/U) enter following a recent victory. The Raiders (4-5-0 SU, 6-3-0 ATS, 7-2-0 O/U) look to bounce back after dropping their last game.

Quarterback storylines dominate the betting landscape on both sidelines heading into kickoff. Following the blockbuster trade that sent Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, Las Vegas ushers in a new era by handing rookie Fernando Mendoza his first career NFL start, supported by workhorse running back Ashton Jeanty and a heavily targeted Brock Bowers. Meanwhile, Seattle must turn to backup Drew Lock behind an offensive line missing both Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson, as Sam Darnold sits out with rib and quad injuries. With both squads adapting to altered passing attacks in a domed environment, isolating individual matchup edges and key spread numbers reveals outstanding betting value.

Seahawks vs Raiders Predictions & Best Bets

Spread Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 (-104, Novig) – Claim SBD’s exclusive NOVIG PROMO CODE
Laying nearly a touchdown on the road with an injured quarterback room is a risky proposition. With Darnold officially out and Lock limited in practice, Seattle faces a difficult challenge against a Raiders defense that secures 1.56 takeaways per game. Take the points with the more efficient home offense.

Following the big trade that sent Cousins to Minnesota, Las Vegas turns the offense over to Mendoza. While starting a rookie signal-caller typically gives bettors pause, Klint Kubiak’s game plan is designed to insulate Mendoza by leaning heavily on bell-cow back Jeanty and quick-hitting throws to Bowers.

More importantly, Seattle arrives in Las Vegas severely compromised on offense: not only is Lock starting in place of the injured Darnold, but Seattle officially ruled out their starting left tackle Cross (ankle) and Pro Bowl guard Nelson (knee). That leaves Lock playing behind a patchwork offensive line directly in front of Maxx Crosby. Getting nearly a full touchdown (+6.5) at home against an injured backup quarterback behind a depleted line gives the Raiders a massive situational edge.

Over/Under Pick: Over 40.5 Points (-104, Kalshi)
While oddsmakers project a lower-scoring affair, the raw offensive output of these two teams suggests a higher ceiling. Both teams convert red-zone trips into touchdowns at a 50% or better clip. Las Vegas generates 266.78 passing yards per game, providing enough explosiveness to help push this game over the modest 40.5-point total.

The market has heavily depressed this total following the Cousins trade and Darnold’s injury, but 40.5 sets the bar far too low on the fast turf of Allegiant Stadium. Kubiak and the Raiders’ coaching staff have tailored the playbook for Mendoza to attack soft zone coverage on schemed intermediate throws, backed by an explosive ground game that keeps the offense on schedule.

Seattle’s defense is missing defensive tackle Leonard Williams (stinger) to anchor the interior, and the Seahawks’ perimeter attack still features elite difference-makers in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. Both offenses convert over 50% of red-zone appearances into touchdowns, meaning a few explosive chunk plays from Jeanty or Smith-Njigba will quickly push this low-baseline total into the mid-40s.

Anytime Touchdown Pick: Brock Bowers (+213 / 32¢, Kalshi) – Lock in SBD’s KALSHI BONUS CODE
With Dont’e Thornton Jr questionable and missing practice time, the Las Vegas passing attack will funnel through its star tight end. Kalshi offers an attractive 32¢ payout for Bowers to score a touchdown. Given the elite third-down conversion rates for Las Vegas, Bowers is positioned as a primary red-zone target.

With Mendoza making his first NFL start in the post-Cousins era, young quarterbacks naturally lean on elite tight ends as their primary security blankets. Bowers commands an overwhelming 27.8% first-read target share and leads the Raiders with 34.6% of targets inside the 20-yard line, making him Mendoza’s immediate go-to option when possessions reach scoring range.

Seattle’s defense plays heavy zone shells that leave linebackers isolated against Bowers on seams, delayed crossers, and schemed pop-passes off play-action fakes to Jeanty. At +213 (32¢ on Kalshi, implying just a 32% chance), backing a generational receiving weapon who serves as a rookie quarterback’s top red-zone read provides exceptional positive expected value.

SEA vs LVR Betting Lines

Odds as of November 14, 2026, at 1:49 PM ET from BetMGM. Claim your BetMGM promo now.

Oddsmakers position Seattle as a 6.5-point road favorite. Removing the sportsbook juice to calculate vig-free normalized probabilities, the moneyline odds imply a 71.73% chance of an outright victory for the Seahawks. The home underdog Raiders hold a 28.27% probability of pulling off the upset. The 40.5-point total suggests expectations for a moderately low-scoring contest at Allegiant Stadium.

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders Public Betting Splits

• Spread: 85.79% of the money is on the Seattle Seahawks, with 14.21% backing the Las Vegas Raiders.
• Moneyline: 94.52% of the money favors a Seattle Seahawks outright victory, leaving just 5.48% on the Las Vegas Raiders.
• Total: 69.73% of the money is on the Over, while 30.27% is on the Under.

The spread prediction stands as a stark contrarian play, fading the overwhelming 85.79% of the money laying the points with the road favorite. Given the quarterback injuries for Seattle and the home-field environment for Las Vegas, breaking away from the public consensus offers distinct betting value. The prediction for the total aligns perfectly with the betting masses, as nearly 70% of the money currently backs a higher-scoring outcome.

Raiders vs Seahawks Injury Reports

Seattle

Las Vegas

Seahawks vs Raiders Team Stats

When the Raiders possess the ball, the offense relies heavily on the pass. Generating 266.78 passing yards per game compared to just 71.33 rushing yards at 2.89 yards per carry, Las Vegas rarely finds success on the ground. They face a stingy Seattle defense that surrenders only 155.11 passing yards and 18.00 points per game.

However, Las Vegas converts 52.9% of red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. With Thornton Jr questionable after missing practice, Bowers should see increased volume in high-leverage scoring situations.

When the Seahawks take the field, the offense brings a balanced attack producing 232.11 passing yards and 110.78 rushing yards per contest. On paper, this presents a favorable matchup against a Las Vegas defense yielding 385.44 total yards and 29.78 points per game.

The ability to exploit this mismatch remains in doubt due to critical injuries under center. With Darnold officially out, and Lock entering the contest with an elbow injury that limited his practice participation, facing a Raiders defense that secures 1.56 takeaways per game, a compromised backfield will struggle to execute at peak efficiency.