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Smart Super Bowl 59 Bets to Make for Chiefs vs Eagles

Chris Amberley

By Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Published:


Patrick Mahomes celebrates during the Chiefs Super Bowl win over the 49ers.
Dec 10, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates after a touchdown during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
  • Super Bowl 59 kicks off Sunday between the Chiefs and Eagles
  • KC scored just five touchdowns all season of 20+ yards
  • Read below for our smart Super Bowl bets to make for the Chiefs vs Eagles showdown

The Super Bowl betting menu is extremely vast. There’s almost nothing you can’t bet on, but most of those wagers are flawed for two reasons. One, the odds of them actually hitting are nowhere close to how they’re priced. Second, it’s next to impossible to get a sizeable amount of money down on a novelty prop. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be firing on Super Bowl Sunday. Below is a list of smart NFL prop bets to make, that are each priced fairly and can handle a reasonable-sized wager.

Smart Super Bowl 59 Bets for Chiefs vs Eagles

Super Bowl PicksOddsSportsbook
Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP+120DraftKings
Eagles to Score Longest Touchdown-118FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes 25+ Passing Yards in Each Quarter-130DraftKings

We’ll start with Patrick Mahomes as MVP at +120 odds. Kansas City is a 1.5-point favorite, and if history has taught us anything, it’s that the Chiefs winning a Super Bowl will result in Mahomes earning Most Valuable Player honors.

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Super Bowl Bet #1: Patrick Mahomes to Win MVP

He’s three-for-three in KC Super Bowl triumphs so far. It’s hard to argue against him winning the last two years, but he stole the award from Damien Williams in 2019. Williams became the first player in Super Bowl history to rush for 100+ yards, and score a rushing and receiving touchdown. His two 4th quarter scores helped the Chiefs overcome a 10-point deficit, yet it still wasn’t enough to overtake his quarterback.

Voters looked past Mahomes’ two interceptions and inconsistent game, but it’s not the first time QB favortism has been shown. Let’s not forget, James White broke the scoring record in a Super Bowl and was passed over for Tom Brady. Quarterbacks have won the award in six of the past eight years, and an offensive player still won the award in the lowest scoring Super Bowl ever in 2018.

Bottom-line, if you’re on the Chiefs to three-peat, you’ll make more money betting on Mahomes to win MVP.

Super Bowl Bet #2: Eagles to Score Longest Touchdown

Our next choice, is the Eagles to score the game’s longest touchdown. Philadelphia boasts a significantly more explosive roster than KC, featuring multiple players who have a history of scoring long touchdowns. Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are all capable of taking any play to the house. On the other side, it’s really just Xavier Worthy that’s a threat to break a big play.

Look no further than the last two playoff games. The Eagles have scored five touchdowns of 44 yards or longer. Kansas City meanwhile, has not scored outside of the 11-yard line all postseason. In fact, they’ve scored only two 40+ yard TD all season, and only one since Rashee Rice went down in Week 3.

The Chiefs haven’t scored a 20+ yard touchdown since Week 15, and have recorded only five of those in 19 games. Philadelphia on the other hand, has at least one 20+ yard TD in all but five games that their starters have played.

When these two teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, Philly scored the only 20+ yard touchdown of the contest. The Eagles racked up 73 explosive plays during the regular season, compared to only 56 by the Chiefs.

Super Bowl Bet #3: Patrick Mahomes 25+ Passing Yards in Each Quarter

Last, but not least, we’re targetting Mahomes again but this time to throw for 25+ yards in every quarter. Running against this Eagles front is a daunting task. Philly allowed the 10th fewest rushing yards this season, and features one of the best d-lines in football.

The Chiefs offense meanwhile, is among the leaders in pass rate over expectation. They use the quick passing attack as an extension of their run game, nickle and diming defenses to death. Look no further than how they attacked the Bills on the opening drive of the AFC Championship. Mahomes threw the ball on five of KC’s first six plays, setting up the Chiefs in the red zone for an eventual Kareem Hunt score.

If you’re worried about a KC win, and them running out the clock on the ground, don’t be. Andy Reid wants to keep the ball in Mahomes’ hands at all costs, letting him decide the outcome. The Chiefs were throwing in the final minute to put away the Bills last week, and will do so again if given the opportunity in the Super Bowl. If game script goes the other way and KC is trailing, you can bet they’ll quickly abandon any thought of running.

Mahomes averages 278 passing yards, and a 68% completion rate in the postseason. He’s hit the 270 yard mark in three of four Super Bowl appearances, including a 333 yard performance in last year’s Big Game.

Bettors can check out any or all of SBD’s Super Bowl 59 coverage:

Chris Amberley
Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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