Steelers vs Buccaneers Prop Picks & Touchdown Predictions
By Michael Schwartz in NFL News
Published:
- Steelers vs Buccaneers preview, prop picks and predictions
- Pittsburgh’s passing game and Tampa Bay’s rushing attack headline the betting card
- Read below for analysis, stats, odds and how to watch
The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U) visit Raymond James Stadium to battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U) this afternoon, with kickoff slated for 1:00 PM ET on CBS. This Week 6 interconference duel brings major narrative intrigue with Todd Bowles still on the hot seat despite snapping a four-game skid, facing a surging Pittsburgh squad under Mike McCarthy that averages 22.2 points per game. Both offenses feature defined focal points. Pittsburgh is led by Jaylen Warren’s 640 yards from scrimmage and Pat Freiermuth’s four touchdowns, while Tampa Bay is powered by Bucky Irving’s 406 rushing yards and second-year standout Emeka Egbuka’s team-high 21 receptions.
Unlocking the most profitable NFL props requires zeroing in on high-leverage snap rates, red-zone target shares, and situational touch ceilings. Tampa Bay’s defensive unit allows 22.4 points per game and faces a balanced Pittsburgh attack, while the Buccaneers must find ways to sustain drives against a disruptive Steelers front seven. This deep dive evaluates verified usage trends, defensive matchup splits, and player markets to give you an analytical edge at the betting window ahead of this afternoon’s kickoff.
Player Props for Steelers vs Buccaneers
The tables below set out the main passing, rushing, and receiving props for the skill-position players on both teams.
Passing Props
Aaron Rodgers enters this matchup with a passing yardage total that dropped from 231.5 to 226.5. His completions line remains steady at 21.5. Baker Mayfield is out, and Jalon Daniels is expected to start at quarterback.
Rushing and Receiving Props
The Steelers’ rushing expectations have seen downward movement. Jaylen Warren’s rushing yardage line dropped from 62.5 to 60.5, while Rico Dowdle’s number fell from 25.5 to 22.5. DK Metcalf’s receptions prop also shifted from an opening 4.5 down to 3.5.
On the Buccaneers sideline, Bucky Irving’s lines remain steady with 15.5 rushing attempts and 63.5 rushing yards. Chris Godwin Jr saw a slight dip in his receiving yards prop from 27.5 down to 26.5.
Touchdown Props
Jaylen Warren’s NFL TD scorer odds lengthened from -109 to +108. Rico Dowdle saw his anytime scoring odds shift from +145 to +307. DK Metcalf’s first touchdown odds drifted from +850 to +950.
For the Buccaneers, Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin Jr provide strong value in the anytime touchdown market when utilizing Kalshi’s contract pricing, which offers better implied payouts than standard sportsbooks for those selections (converted to American odds in the table above). No supplied metrics explain the general odds adjustments.
Key Player Betting Trends
Bettors looking for actionable angles in the prop markets should consider these individual performance patterns heading into Week 6:
- Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has exceeded 33.5 passing attempts in 4 of his last 5 games (36.8 passing attempts/game average).
- Jaylen Warren: Warren has exceeded 61.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games (91.0 rushing yards/game average).
- Jaylen Warren: Warren has exceeded 28.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games (50.8 receiving yards/game average).
- Bucky Irving: Irving has exceeded 15.5 rushing attempts in 3 of his last 4 games (17.2 rushing attempts/game average).
- Bucky Irving: Irving has failed to exceed 12.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games (5.8 receiving yards/game average).
- Emeka Egbuka: Egbuka has failed to exceed 38.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games (32.2 receiving yards/game average).
- DK Metcalf: Metcalf has failed to exceed 4.5 receptions in 10 of his last 12 games as a favorite (3.6 receptions/game average).
- Cade Otton: Otton has exceeded 3.5 receptions in 3 of his last 4 games at home (4.8 receptions/game average).
Best Player Prop Bets
Finding edges in the player prop market requires isolating individual consistency and aligning it with the right game environment. Focusing on individual usage and established historical splits pinpoints the best values. Below are the top player props to consider for this matchup, backed by strong situational trends.
- Cade Otton 30+ Receiving Yards (-113 / 53% at Novig)
The tight end offers compelling value based on a flawless recent split in his own stadium. Cade Otton has exceeded 29.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games at home (56.2 receiving yards/game average). His current line perfectly matches this baseline, making the over an attractive angle for bettors banking on his continued home-field production.
- Aaron Rodgers 34+ Pass Attempts (-108 / 52¢ at Kalshi)
The Steelers’ offensive script has leaned heavily on their quarterback’s arm. Aaron Rodgers has exceeded 33.5 passing attempts in 4 of his last 5 games (36.8 passing attempts/game average). The volume is consistently there, giving him plenty of opportunities to hit the over on this attempts line, especially with the Steelers entering the contest as narrow 2.5-point road favorites.
- Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown (+203 / 33¢ at Kalshi)
Finding value in the touchdown markets often requires shopping for the best price. Bucky Irving has exceeded 15.5 rushing attempts in 3 of his last 4 games, demonstrating consistent red-zone volume. Grabbing his anytime touchdown prop at 33¢ on Kalshi implies a +203 payout, offering significantly better value than the +176 listed at standard sportsbooks.
Steelers vs Buccaneers Injury Report
Both the Steelers and Buccaneers have extensive injury reports heading into this Week 6 matchup. While a full list of official game designations have not yet been reported for either side, several key contributors missed practice or were limited, casting doubt on their availability and potentially shaking up the prop betting landscape.
The most significant confirmed injury is Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is out due to a thumb injury. Jalon Daniels steps in as the backup, drastically altering passing expectations. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr also missed practice with a rib issue.
The Steelers are dealing with injuries to their receiving corps, as both Roman Wilson (finger) and Ben Skowronek (calf) did not participate in practice. Defensively, cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey (wrist) and Jamel Dean (ankle) were limited.
Weather Forecast and Stadium Impacts
- Forecast: Currently unavailable
- Stadium: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
- Roof Type: Outdoor
- Playing Surface: Turf
With the specific NFL weather forecast currently unavailable for this matchup, it remains to be seen if the elements will influence the on-field action. Because Raymond James Stadium is an outdoor venue, any late-developing wind or rain could impact both passing attacks and the kicking game.
If conditions remain clear, the fast turf surface will allow both offenses to execute their passing and rushing scripts without weather-related limitations. Bettors should monitor the local Tampa forecast closer to kickoff for any sudden changes that might affect ball security, kicking distances, or deep passing efficiency.
Steelers vs Buccaneers Odds
- Moneyline: Steelers -147 | Buccaneers +120
- Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-115) | Buccaneers +2.5 (-105)
- Total: O/U 39.5 (Over -108 | Under -111)
Odds provided by BetMGM.
The Steelers enter Raymond James Stadium as narrow 2.5-point road favorites over the Buccaneers. The game features an over/under total set at 39.5 points, reflecting the potential for a lower-scoring contest.
Bettors looking to back the favored Steelers on the spread must pay a slightly higher premium at -115. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers offer solid plus-money value at +120 on the moneyline for an outright home upset.
