Super Bowl LI Props: Ads, Trump, and a bit of Football

On Sunday, February 5 (6:30 PM ET), the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will kickoff the NFL’s 51st Super Bowl. The game itself is set to be a tightly-contested one with the potential for a lot of points, as two masterful quarterbacks square-off. But that’s not all that is scheduled for Super Bowl Sunday.

Also happening on February 5, Bill O’Reilly will interview President Donald Trump in a pre-game special, some of the biggest American companies (sans Doritos) will reveal their $5 million commercials, Tiger Woods may be playing in the Dubai Desert Classic, and three NBA games will be played. Do you think Bill O’Reilly will mention Trump’s destruction of the USFL? Will former President Barack Obama appear in one of the Super Bowl ads? Will Tiger make the cut?

We may not have definitive answers for you, but we do have odds! (If you are looking for props that apply more to the actual football game, see here. If you’re unsure of what props and over/unders are, get a quick lesson on Super Bowl bets.)

Pre-game Props

Odds Donald Trump predicts an exact score during interview with Bill O’Reilly: 5/3

This is an honest man who sticks to the cold hard facts. An incorrect prediction could tarnish his unquestioned legitimacy. Then again, Trump could just dismiss it as an alternative fact if wrong.

Odds on which team Donald Trump predicts to win Super Bowl 51 during interview with Bill O’Reilly:

Patriots: 1/4
Falcons: 4/1

Georgia voted for Trump and Massachusetts did not. But do you really think Trump will go against his boys?

Odds Bill O’Reilly asks Trump about his friendship with …

Tom Brady: 1/3
Robert Kraft: 1/1
Bill Belichick: 3/2

Even if the question isn’t asked, Trump will make sure we all know he has Brady’s support.

Odds the USFL or New Jersey Generals are discussed during the O’Reilly/Trump interview: 2/1

With all the horrors going on in the White House right now, I doubt O’Reilly will have time to get to the league Donald Trump destroyed. If it is discussed, Trump will clarify that it wasn’t his idea to move the USFL to the fall and directly compete with the NFL. It was the previous owners idea … and the immigrants.

In-game Props

Odds the game goes into overtime: 50/1

It has never happened before and we haven’t seen anything from these playoffs to suggest that will change.

Odds Steve Young’s single-game Super Bowl record of six TD passes is tied/broken: 9/1

Matt Ryan and Tom Brady are two capable quarterbacks, but they do hand the ball off in the red zone sometimes.

Odds the game breaks record for highest-scoring Super Bowl of all time: 3/1

Super Bowl XXIX between the 49ers and Chargers saw a record 75 total points. Don’t expect the Patriots and Falcons to match that. Both teams have proven they can play defense. New England allowed the fewest points in the regular season, while Atlanta just held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers scoreless in the first-half.

Odds Jerry Rice’s single-game Super Bowl record of 215 receiving yards is broken: 12/1

Julio Jones may be the best receiver the game has seen since Randy Moss in his prime, but Bill Belichick is the master of removing his opponent’s best player. In spite of his Jones-esque AFC Championship numbers, Chris Hogan doesn’t have the ability after the catch to make this happen.

Odds no interceptions are thrown: 8/7

Matt Ryan has not thrown an interception since December 4. Tom Brady has only thrown four interceptions in 14 games this year. Although both are playing the position to near-perfection, mistakes do happen.

Cross-sport Props

Odds the score of the Super Bowl exceeds Tiger Woods’ final-round score at Dubai: 15/1

We’re talking Tiger’s final-round, not the tournament’s final-round, since it’s far from certain that Woods will make the cut.

“Daily-double” odds

Tiger Woods misses cut in Dubai & Patriots win: 7/1
Tiger Woods misses cut in Dubai & Falcons win: 15/2

Tiger Woods wins in Dubai & Patriots win: 40/1
Tiger Woods wins in Dubai & Falcons win: 45/1

Odds the winning score of the PGA Tour’s Waste Management Phoenix Open is greater than both Tom Brady & Matt Ryan’s passing yards in SB 51: 5/3

Par in this tournament is 284 and last year’s winning score was 270. To clarify, we are not talking the two quarterbacks’ combined passing yardage. That would be one disappointing Super Bowl. The winning score will once again be under par, and one of the two quarterbacks will throw for more than 284 yards.

Odds on who scores the most points on Super Bowl Sunday

Russell Westbrook, Thunder: 16/3
DeMar DeRozan, Raptors: 11/2
New England Patriots: 6/1
Atlanta Falcons: 13/2
Damian Lillard, Blazers: 7/1
Isaiah Thomas, Celtics: 7/1
Brook Lopez, Nets: 10/1
Blake Griffin, Clippers: 12/1

The Nets and Blazers can’t play any defense this season, so Westbrook and DeRozan should have modified shoot-arounds on Super Bowl Sunday. Isaiah Thomas may be second in the league in PPG, but the Clippers defense allows the ninth-fewest PPG.

Tri-Fecta odds

Brady throws 3 TD passes, Russell Westbrook gets a triple-double, and a PGA player makes hole-in-1 on hole #16 at Phoenix: 2,500/1

I feel pretty good about the first two on the list, but only two men have aced the 16th hole at the Phoenix Open since 2003. In spite of it being considered one of the easiest holes on tour, it is still incredibly difficult to knock it in off the tee, even from just 150 yards.

Post-game Props

If the Patriots win …

odds Roger Goodell does not appear on the podium to hand the Patriots the Vince Lombardi Trophy: 100/1

odds Robert Kraft refuses to shake Roger Goodell’s hand during post-game ceremony: 75/1

odds Tom Brady refuses to shake Roger Goodell’s hand during post-game ceremony: 150/1

He may not like it, but Goodell will be there with a forced smile on his face. Expect both Kraft and Brady to be keen to offer a very extended, smug handshake.

odds on which NFL legend will present the trophy to the Patriots

Ty Law: 2/1
Tedy Bruschi: 4/1 
Willie McGinest: 6/1
Troy Brown: 8/1
Deion Branch: 9/1
Vince Wilfork: 25/1
FIELD: 12/1

It would make sense for the Patriots to draw some attention to Ty Law right now, as he has been named one of the 15 finalist for the 2017 Pro Football Hall of Fame. But there’s no shortage of Patriot greats if Law has other plans.

If the Falcons win, odds on which NFL legend will present the trophy to the team

Dan Reeves: 4/1
Jamal Anderson: 9/2
Michael Vick: 7/1
Deion Sanders: 15/2
Claude Humphrey: 8/1
Jeff Van Note: 8/1
Mike Kenn: 9/1
FIELD: 19/1

I know he was a guest at the final regular season game played at the Georgia Dome, and received a standing ovation, but there is still a lot of negative history between Michael Vick and the Falcons. The mending process has begun, but the franchise would still rather honor someone like Dan Reeves or Jamal Anderson first.

Commercial Props

Odds on which Anheuser-Busch brand ad will run first

Budweiser: 6/5
Bud Light: 3/2
Busch: 12/1
Michelob Ultra: 11/1

The earlier in the game the better is the general consensus. For years, Budweiser/Bud Light got that coveted spot right after kickoff. If you were Anheuser-Busch, would you put your eggs in Michelob Ultra’s weird diet basket, or would you stick with what’s worked for decades?

Odds on which advertiser will win USA Today’s Super Bowl Ad Meter

Anheuser-Busch: 9/4 
Hyundai: 5/1
Snickers: 6/1
PepsiCo: 10/1
Avocados from Mexico: 12/1
Wix.com: 18/1
Skittles: 35/1 
FIELD: 5/1

Budweiser/Bud Light have dominated this award since 1999. Doritos is the only other company that’s won multiple times since then, and they’re taking the year off, sadly. While Bud had an off-year in 2016, I expect them back with the vengeance of a thousand puppies this time.

Hyundai has a better shot than most this year. Not only are they the reigning champs, but they’re going ultra-unique, filming their commercial during the game. 

Snickers also gets points for daring, airing a live commercial. That’s $5 million worth of pressure. Hope the camera guy’s fingers don’t get sweaty.

Pepsi used to be a power-hitter back in the early days, winning six times from 1991 and 1998.

Skittles commercials are just weird or, if we’re being polite, a little too “niche” to win the Ad Meter.

Odds on which first-time national advertiser will be rated highest by USA Today’s Super Bowl Ad Meter

Bai: 7/2
Top Games: 4/1 
GNC: 6/1
It’s a 10 Haircare: 7/1 
84 Lumber: 8/1
Febreze: 9/1
Mr. Clean: 9/1

I don’t think any of these are going to do particularly well. GNC’s ad looks like it’s going the healthy/inspirational route. Boring. The Febreze commercial is indistinguishable from a regular Febreze commercial. The Mr. Clean ad is creepy as ****. 84 Lumber has a 90-second commercial; that’s three ad spots rolled into one. That’s way too long to talk about lumber supplies.

Bai gets the edge because they have Justin Timberlake starring in their spot. People love Timberlake. Top Games also promises celebrities and high-production values for their mobile-game ad.

Odds on which car brand will be rated highest by USA Today’s Super Bowl Ad Meter

Hyundai: 4/1
Honda: 9/2
Audi
: 5/1
Kia: 13/2
Buick: 8/1
Lexus:
 8/1

Mercedes-Benz: 8/1

As mentioned, Hyundai won last year and are getting very creative for Super Bowl 51. Consider them the front-runner. Honda proved last year it knows what wins the ad-war, going animal-heavy with singing sheep. Audi also had a very nice showing last year and are back for more with the same ad agency.

Kia’s add will star Melissa McCarthy. That could go well, I guess.

Odds at least one Super Bowl ad will mention the “President,” “White House,” “Trump” or use a Presidential lookalike: 1/1

Odds of Barack Obama appearing in a Super Bowl ad: 7/1

Odds of a mishap during Snickers’ live Super Bowl commercial: 19/1

I’m guessing they will have rehearsed this thing a few times and that any “mishaps” are of the planned variety.

Odds of Peyton Manning appearing in a national Super Bowl commercial: 1/1

I haven’t come across any company stating Manning is their star, but a lot of companies are keeping their creative details under wraps. This is a coin flip.

(Photo Credit: @NRGPark via Instagram)