Upcoming Match-ups
Tmrw
26
Apr
5:30 PM
MIL
IND
+5
-5
222.5
8:00 PM
LAC
DAL
+4.5
-4.5
209.5
10:30 PM
MIN
PHO
+4
-4
207.5
Saturday
27
Apr
3:30 PM
OKC
NO
-1
+1
211.5
6:00 PM
BOS
MIA
-8
+8
205

The Browns’ Odds to Win AFC North Division Improve to +270 After Steelers Drop Third Straight – Is Cleveland a Good Bet?

Matt Loede

by Matt Loede in NFL Football

Updated Dec 22, 2020 · 1:23 PM PST

The AFC North Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns center Nick Harris (53) and defensive end Olivier Vernon (54) in a team huddle during an NFL football game against the New York Giants, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
  • After Monday’s upset of the Steelers, the Browns are suddenly very much in the mix to steal away the AFC North title
  • In a matter of three weeks, the Browns have jumped from +4750 to +270, now a game back of Pittsburgh
  • The two teams are slated to meet in week 17 in Cleveland, a game that very well could decide the winner of the division and who gets a wild card home game

Monday night’s upset by the Cincinnati Bengals topping the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-17 has suddenly made things a lot more interesting in the AFC North.

With two weeks left in the regular season, the Steelers (11-3) still lead the division by a game over the surging Cleveland Browns (10-4).

The two teams are slated to meet in the season finale at First Energy Stadium in Cleveland, and that game could very well now be an “all or nothing” game for the division title.

It was just back on December 3rd that the Steelers were a massive favorite to win the division at -20000, while the Browns were +4750.

Things have tightened up, as when looking at the NFL divisional odds of the AFC North the Browns have moved to +270, while the Steelers have dropped all the way to -340.

AFC North Odds

Team Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers -340
Cleveland Browns +270

Odds as of Dec 22 at FanDuel

One Up, One Down

Week 15 saw both the Browns and Steelers play in prime time, with one team playing like a true contender, the other looking like a playoff pretender.

The contender would the Browns, who went to MetLife Stadium in New Jersey and dominated the New York Giants 20-6.

It was another stellar night for Browns’ quarterback Baker Mayfield, who went 27-for-32 for 297 yards with a pair of scores.

Cleveland’s defense, which had been a weakness all season, held the Giants to a pair of field goals and 288 total yards with just over 25 minutes in time of possession.

The Browns 10th win of 2020 is more than this team has had in one year since 2007 when they missed the playoffs going 10-6.

Cleveland currently sits at the number five spot in the AFC postseason race and would play the Tennessee Titans in a wild card game.

The Steelers on the other hand, look like a team that is completely lost after dropping their third straight game after opening the year 11-0.

They went to play a Bengals team that they had not lost to since November of 2015, taking home the last 11 meetings.

Cincinnati didn’t have their star rookie quarterback in Joe Burrow, starting Ryan Finley in his place.

They didn’t have maybe their best offensive weapon in running back Joe Mixon, and their defensive line had gone from formidable to mostly backups.

That didn’t matter, as the Steelers committed three turnovers in the first half as the Bengals put up a 17-0 lead at half.

The Steelers were outgained 124 to 40 in yards in the first 30 minutes, and while they got on track in the second half scoring the first 10 points to close it to 17-10, that was about as close as they would get.

Cincinnati threw the ball just four times in the second half, but put a critical 80-yard scoring drive together using mostly the run to take a 24-10 lead.

The Bengals were 2-10-1 entering the game, and being a 14-point favorite, the Steelers laid possibly the biggest egg of the NFL season in a game where they could have clinched the AFC North title.

Why the Turnaround?

Cleveland at 10-4 has been gaining steam as the season has moved on.

Since they fell 16-6 at home to the Las Vegas Raiders on November 1st, they have won six in a row, and are playing well on both sides of the ball.

Many have pointed to their rather “light” schedule, benefiting from beating teams like Cincinnati twice, Houston, Jacksonville, Washington, Dallas and Philadelphia.

Super Bowl 59 Odds for 2025: 49ers Open as Favorites, But Chiefs Are Close Second
Read More

No matter, they have 10 wins and look poised for a possible playoff run that could see them as the most dangerous team in the AFC to challenge the top-seed the Kansas City Chiefs.

Pittsburgh was the talk of the NFL after their 11-0 start, and they also had a rather easy slate in 2020, beating the likes of the Bengals, Jaguars, Broncos, Giants, Texans and Eagles.

They were not blowing out teams, but they still were stacking wins, and looked like a Super Bowl contender with double-digit wins by Thanksgiving.

Now they’ve dropped three in a row, and the team is reeling. They have numerous injuries on defense that have hindered what was a dangerous unit early in the season, and their offense has been putrid the last few weeks.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger looks like a shell of himself from just a few weeks back, starting Monday’s game throwing for just 19 yards with a pick in the first half.

They have two tough games remaining to try and wrap up the division, a home game Sunday against the 10-4 Indianapolis Colts, and a possible AFC North title showdown in Cleveland in week 17.

Can Cleveland Sneak in for the AFC North Title?

While the Steelers are still the favorites to win the AFC North, the road for Cleveland to steal the division became a lot easier following Monday night’s upset of the Steelers.

Cleveland needs to win their last two games, and suddenly those two games don’t seem all that daunting, as they play at the 1-13 New York Jets, and then will look for revenge for an earlier loss in 2020 at home against Pittsburgh.

For the Steelers, their easiest path to a division title is simply to beat the Colts at home Sunday. They’ve played the Colts 18 times in the last 70 years at home, going 16-2 including playoffs.

The Colts last win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh came with Peyton Manning under center for Indianapolis back in 2008, beating the Steelers in a year they made the Super Bowl by a score of 24-20.

A Critical Week 16

Cleveland is a rather healthy road favorite this week as they travel to play at MetLife Stadium for the second straight week.

The Browns are listed as a 9.5 point favorite in most books, despite the Jets pulling off their first win of 2020 in a huge upset over the Los Angeles Rams on the road Sunday.

The high point amount is warranted the way the Browns have played the last few weeks, while the Jets are still a team that has won one game in 14 chances.

For the Steelers, even though they have dominated the Colts at home in their history, they are just a 1.5 point favorite to find a way to get to their 12th win of 2020.

Pittsburgh does have the comfort of being at home, but the Colts should be able to smell blood in the water as the Steelers are a mess, and they are reeling after losing for three consecutive weeks.

Are They Worth It?

Cleveland seems to be sitting in the driver’s seat at +270 to win the AFC North in stunning fashion, but a lot of it will come down to this weekend.

Despite losing three in a row, Pittsburgh historically has taken care of business at home against the Colts, and it looks like they are a safe bet to finally get the ship right against the Colts.

One key component for the Colts is the play of quarterback Philip Rivers, who is a lifetime 3-4 against Pittsburgh, throwing for 14 touchdowns and six interceptions with a 91.1 QB rating.

Last season with Mason Rudolph and Delvin “Duck” Hodges at QB the Steelers pulled out a 26-24 win against the Colts, a result they hope they can duplicate this weekend.

For now, bet the Browns to win their last two, while it is tough to see the Steelers doing enough to find a way to get things right to finish things off to win the North.

Author Image