NFL Picks for Thanksgiving Day – Picks Against the Spread and Best Upset Predictions

• Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season kicks off Thursday (Nov. 25th) with a Thanksgiving Day tripleheader
• The Cowboys are 1-9 against the spread on Thanksgiving over the past 10 seasons
• Read below for analysis and against the spread picks on the Thanksgiving Day slate

The Thanksgiving Day NFL slate this year is kind of like pizza. Even if it’s bad, it’s still pretty good. The matchups for Thursday’s tripleheader aren’t as appetizing as they usually are, in large part due to injuries plaguing all three contests, but no one is going to complain about a full day of football to sweat.

Thanksgiving Day Against the Spread Picks

Odds as of Nov. 22nd at DraftKings and FanDuel.

The action kicks off at 12:30 pm ET from Detroit, where the Lions host the Chicago Bears. It’s a rematch of the Week 4 game won by Chicago 24-14, but there’s plenty of reasons to believe the result will be much closer this time around.

Bears vs Lions Against the Spread Pick

Detroit opened up as a 3.5-point underdog, and as it stands on Monday, it looks like this game could be a battle between backup quarterbacks. Jared Goff missed Week 11 with an oblique injury, and could only get in a limited practice on Monday. Tim Boyle made his first NFL start in Goff’s place against Cleveland, and while he certainly didn’t impress, he’s not that much of a downgrade from Goff.

Regardless of who plays, the Lions won’t be interested in throwing unless they have to. Since head coach Dan Campbell took over play calling duties prior to Week 10, Detroit has run the ball on over 54% of their offensive snaps.

The old school strategy has helped the Lions play two of their most competitive games of the season. Detroit has covered the spread in back-to-back outings, and they’ll want to attack the Bears the same way given their injury situation.

I hadn't realized how beat up the Bears are right now. They were missing arguably their 4 best players on Sunday

– Khalil Mack (IR)
– Allen Robinson
– Eddie Jackson
– Akiem Hicks

— Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitOnLion) November 22, 2021

Chicago will be without Khalil Mack, and potentially run stuffing nose tackle Akiem Hicks as well. Chicago already ranks 21st in rush defense DVOA, and those key absences will make that unit even more susceptible.

D’Andre Swift ripped off 136 yards on the ground versus the Browns, giving him 266 rushing yards over his past two outings, and is once again set-up for another big day.

As for the Bears offense, it looks like Andy Dalton will be back under center. Justin Fields left Chicago’s Week 11 game with bruised ribs, and it’s unlikely he gets cleared in time for Thursday.

An overwhelming number of #Bears’ players want Matt Nagy gone, league sources say. “He lost some of the locker room last season, but now it’s gone,” one source adds. One key holdup: No HC in the 101-year franchise history has ever been let go during the season.

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) November 22, 2021

The Bears have scored 20 or fewer points in seven of 10 games this season, while Dalton has one of Pro Football Focus’ lowest passing grades among qualified quarterbacks.

I like the Lions not only to cover, but to get the outright upset as well.

Pick: Detroit Lions +3.5 (-110), 1 Unit

Raiders vs Cowboys Against the Spread Pick

The second game of the Thanksgiving Day slate features the Raiders and Cowboys. Dallas is currently a 7-point favorite, despite being decimated by injuries.

Amari Cooper is out due to COVID, while CeeDee Lamb is a longshot to play after suffering a concussion. Ezekiel Elliott (knee) will likely play, but is clearly hobbled, while stud left tackle Tyron Smith hasn’t seen the field since Week 8.

No Tyron Smith, Amari Cooper, Demarcus Lawrence Randy Gregory and Blake Jarwin for the #Cowboys today.

That has to be close to 50% of their cap dollars out for Week 11.

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 21, 2021

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys will be without their top-two pass rushers Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence for the second consecutive week.

Predictably, Dallas couldn’t overcome the abundance of injuries in Week 11, falling to KC 19-9. The Cowboys scored fewer than 17 points for the second time in three weeks, while Dak Prescott had his worst game of the season.

.@RealSkipBayless gives Dak Prescott an 'F' for his performance in loss to Chiefs:

"This game hit me like a LeBron James sucker punch, right in the face!" 🤣 pic.twitter.com/0pRsoI7swC

— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) November 22, 2021

Prescott turned the ball over three times and posted a season-low 10.0 QBR. The matchup versus Las Vegas isn’t intimidating, but Dak’s ceiling is drastically lowered with all of those key pieces either hurt or missing.

The Raiders meanwhile, have been ice cold since jumping out to a 5-2 start. They’ve dropped three straight, and have been blown out in consecutive outings. Las Vegas has been outscored 73-27 over the past two weeks, and have registered 16 or fewer points in each game during their current skid.

Reminder: America's team always gets overbet on Thanksgiving 🦃

Cowboys on Thanksgiving

2020: Did Not Cover, -3
2019: DNC, -6.5
2018: Covered, -7
2017: DNC, +1
2016: DNC, -5.5
2015: DNC, -1.5
2014: DNC, -3.5
2013: DNC, -8
2012: DNC, -3.5
2011: DNC, -7

1-9 Against the Spread

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 22, 2021

Despite the Raiders’ woes, 7 points is simply too many in this spot. Dallas has covered in only one of its past 10 Thanksgiving Day games, losing outright as a favorite five times. Yes, Las Vegas is reeling, but this Cowboys team is banged up and extremely vulnerable.

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +7, 1 Unit