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Undefeated 49ers Open as +3 Point Underdog In Week 6 Visit to Rams

Can Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers upset the Rams at home? (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)
  • The Rams and 49ers square off in a crucial NFC West clash on Sunday
  • LA needs a victory to keep pace with the top of the division; San Francisco looks to remain undefeated
  • They face each other next Sunday afternoon in LA

After making the Super Bowl last year, 2019 hasn’t gone quite to plan for the Rams.

Following a three-game winning streak, LA has now dropped two in a row. With a divisional game against the 49ers set for Sunday, a second division loss would put them in an unenviable hole.

On the other side, things are all good for the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo has returned from his knee injury, looking more like the 2017 version than last year’s, and they will be fresh off a 31-3 destruction of the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football.

With crucial seeding at stake in the NFC West, who comes out on top in Week 6?

San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams Odds

Team Spread at BetOnline* Moneyline O/U
San Francisco 49ers +3 (-105) N/A O 49 (-110)
LA Rams -3 (-115) N/A U 49 (-110)

*Odds taken 10/08/2019

The 49ers enter this game as a road underdog, and that’s unlikely to change. But that isn’t necessarily the worst thing for them. Over on SBD Sharp, you can see they’re 2-0 on both spread and moneyline this season as an underdog.

For the Rams, they’ll still have that sour taste in their mouth from their last two losses. If it wasn’t for Tampa Bay’s stunning upset, the Rams would have a perfect record as a favorite.

For more on both of these teams, head over to our NFL page and check out the San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams odds & stats.

49ers Enjoying Jimmy G Resurgence

Now, we’ll never know if Jimmy Garoppolo would have eventually found his stride last year. But despite some hiccups in training camp and the pre-season, Garoppolo has seemed to rediscover his 2017 magic.

Jimmy Garoppolo Three Year Trends

Season Record Completion % Yards YPA TD/INT
2017 5-0 67.4 1560 8.8 7/5
2018 1-2 59.6 718 8.1 5/3
2019 4-0 69.0 920 8.1 7/4

Heading into Monday night against the Browns, most of Garoppolo’s numbers were reverting back to 2017. Two of the more important ones being his completion percentage and his yards-per-attempt.

There is a little bit of a troubling trend to keep an eye on however. While his TD% of 6.0 is the highest it’s ever been with the 49ers, Garoppolo is trotting out a 4.8% interception rate. That’s something that has grown incrementally in his three years by the Bay.

The Rams’ defense has simply been OK at creating turnovers. There were 22 teams entering Monday night with just four picks. LA was one of them.

Rams Need to Figure Out Ground Game

Whatever has happened to Todd Gurley, there’s no doubt it has altered the Rams’ offense.

Once a proud multi-dimensional attack, the results become skewed if things become an air-only approach.

Rams Rushing in Wins vs Losses

Wins
VS
Losses

28.7 Rushing Attempts/Game 14.5
123.7 Rushing Yards/Game 55
1.3 Rushing TD/Game 2
+9.3 AVG Winning Margin -8

The average winning margin is increased by a 15-point loss to Tampa, but when the Rams establish the run, they win. They had one rushing attempt in the first quarter against Tampa. They averaged 4.9 YPC in the first quarter against Seattle, but elected to go pass happy the rest of the way.

San Fran was allowing 3.4 YPC entering Monday night, and just 75 yards per game. It could be an uphill climb for the Rams.

Rams Offer Name Value; 49ers Primed to Upset

LA is entering a crucial point of their post-Super Bowl season. This game will be a massive test, and most bettors will think they’ll right the ship.

But if the Rams can’t get it going on the ground, they’ll be forced to throw. And throw a lot. Then it will come down to whether Jimmy G can take care of the ball, or if the Rams can force turnovers. And if they can’t?

They could be left stunned on their home turf.

The Pick: 49ers (+3)

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