NFL Super Bowl Futures & Prices After Week 5: Updated Odds & Market Movement
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
The NFL futures market has experienced a dramatic shakeup through the first five weeks of the season, with no team shifting the board more than the San Francisco 49ers. Thanks to a flawless 5-0 start, San Francisco’s Super Bowl odds have been slashed from an opening price of +1800 down to +750, second-best in the league.
Despite San Francisco’s surge, the sub-.500 Los Angeles Rams (2-3) still hold the top spot on the board as the outright Super Bowl favorite at +700.
The surging Jacksonville Jaguars and the collapsing Los Angeles Chargers highlight the week’s most significant risers and fallers.
The table below compares the current bet365 prices with the Super Bowl odds at this point last week.
Updated Super Bowl Odds After Week 5
Odds as of Oct 13 at bet365.
The shape of the board reflects a tight top tier, with the Rams (+700), 49ers (+750), Bills (+750), Ravens (+800), and Chiefs (+900) clustered closely. Currently, the NFC is favored by oddsmakers to produce the eventual champion at -115, compared to the AFC’s price of -105.
Savvy bettors can find longer odds on most teams at prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The graphic below shows the top-ten Super Bowl favorites at Kalshi heading into Week 6.
Seven of the top-10 favorites have longer odds at Kalshi. New users can take advantage of these prices by claiming SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.
Biggest Super Bowl Risers
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners are 5-0 with the league’s best point differential at +61 (154-93), good for 30.8 points scored and 18.6 allowed per game. The offense is doing the heavy lifting: it is third in the NFL in scoring, averages 368 yards per game, and has thrown just two interceptions and allowed only three sacks.
The defense is fourth in points allowed while generating just 11 sacks (12th in the league), so there is room for improvement on that side of the ball.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-1 with a +53 differential, second in the NFL, and has allowed just 70 points, the second-fewest. The foundation is a run defense that has surrendered only 319 rushing yards in five games, about 64 per game and the lowest total in the league. The Jaguars have six takeaways against three giveaways. The soft spot is the pass defense (1,386 yards allowed, 277 per game), which suggests the points-allowed rank is outrunning the yardage numbers. The offense has also been sacked 10 times.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are a major surprise, sitting at 5-0 after starting the year as a +4500 longshot in the Super Bowl odds.
Minnesota has allowed an NFL-low 64 points, 12.8 per game, for a +45 differential that ranks third. The defense is third in sacks with 17, has six takeaways, and has given up about 282 yards per game. The offense is a different story: 109 points is 21st in the league (21.8 per game), and the quarterback has been sacked 15 times. This is a defense-led 5-0 start, and that imbalance is the main risk.
Biggest Super Bowl Fallers
Los Angeles Chargers
Few teams have collapsed like the Chargers, whose odds plummeted from a competitive +1600 at the start of the season down to a terminal +20000. Sitting at 0-5 and last in the AFC West, their path is effectively closed. They possess a -45 point differential during their five-game losing streak. At 0-4-1 ATS, the Chargers are the only team in the league without a win against the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia opened at +1800 but has faded significantly to +4000 following a miserable three-game losing streak. Philadelphia is 2-3 with a -20 differential, and the offense is the main culprit. It has scored 92 points (29th in the NFL, 18.4 per game) on just 278 yards per game, and has been sacked 13 times.
The defense has produced only six sacks, a bottom-five mark, so neither side of the ball is generating disruption.
Houston Texans
Despite opening with respectable +1800 odds, the Texans slid to +4000 after stumbling to a 1-4 record. The Texans only have -2 point differential (110-112), indicating the record is worse than the play. The pass rush is elite, with 18 sacks (second in the NFL), and the run defense has allowed only 392 yards.
They haven’t thrown an interception all season, though the offense line has allowed 14 sacks. Will Anderson Jr remains the NFL DPOY favorite.
One of the big problems for Houston is that Jacksonville is on fire. Catching the 4-1 Jaguars is looking less likely by the week, so even though Houston picked up its first W over the comically-bad Titans on Sunday, their playoff outlook didn’t improve at all.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
