- The Green Bay Packers travel to Dallas, a place Aaron Rodgers is very comfortable playing
- Can Danny Dimes continue his strong start against an actual defense this week in the Vikings?
- Last week we went 2-0 and won 4.34 units, bringing our yearly total back into the positives at +3.72
It’s been an up and down season and last weekend’s picks were way up. While we weren’t on the big underdog Bucs or Raiders last week, Carolina and Jacksonville did more than alright for betting purposes. But enough playing around with these small market teams!
Looking at the NFL’s Week 5 lines, we’re going to target some of the league’s flagship franchises to pull off the upset.
Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys Odds
|Green Bay Packers||+3||+160|
*Odds taken 10/4/19
You’ll want to have action on this game, since it’s the only one in the late afternoon window. (I hear your “What about Broncos-Chargers?” objections and I’m choosing to ignore them.)
This game will be an interesting matchup between two units looking to bounce back after taking their first L’s in Week 4. The Packers defense got run over by the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night, while the Cowboys offense couldn’t muster anything in the Superdome.
The Cowboys first down play balance prior to the final drive:
11 runs @ 1.9 YPC
8 passes @ 7.3 YPA
First half only:
7 runs @ 2.1 YPC (14% success)
3 passes @ 6.7 YPA (67% success)
On first down Kellen Moore went extremely conservative (70% run in 1H). It was a big mistake.
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 30, 2019
Dallas will likely look to the ground game to get back on track against Green Bay’s 26th ranked run defense. But without Tyron Smith in the lineup (and La’el Collins questionable), that plan is unlikely to work well.
After Tyron Smith left late in the 4th quarter in last night’s loss to the Saints, Dak Prescott was pressured on 4 of 7 dropbacks on their failed GW drive.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 30, 2019
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers has been excellent against the Cowboys in his career, throwing 16 TDs to just 2 INTs and racking up a 6-3 record (including postseason). Rodgers is also a perfect 3-0 in his career at Jerry World, beating Dallas twice and winning his only Super Bowl over the Steelers there in 2011.
Though he’ll be without his top receiving threat in Davante Adams this weekend, I still like Rodgers to get it done on the road here.
Pick: 1.88 units on the Packers moneyline (+160)
Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants Odds
|New York Giants||+5||+195|
*Odds taken 10/4/19
We know that Kirk Cousins struggles against winning teams. Well, the Daniel Jones Giants are 2-0 baby! And now Golden Tate is back to help this fire rookie QB.
You like that Kirk?
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) October 3, 2019
Normally, the Vikings are an obvious play here. But considering all the bad vibes coming out of the Twin Cities, Minnesota looks like a candidate once again for the title of “that talented team that falls well short of expectations” (aka, the San Diego Chargers Memorial Award).
Adam Thielen: “At some point, you’re not going to be able to run the ball for 180 yards, even with the best running back in the NFL. That’s when you have to be able to throw the ball. … You have to be able to hit the deep balls.”
— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) September 30, 2019
The Giants are okay against the run, holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry (tied for 10th in the NFL). If Dalvin Cook can’t pop off in this one, well, we know what that means for the Vikings chances.
Pick: 1 unit on the Giants moneyline (+195)