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Upset Picks for Week 14 in NFL: Miami Looks to Phinish Strong With Another Win Over Jets

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 3:56 PM PDT

Ryan Fitzpatrick under center at the line of scrimmage against the Jets
The Dolphins are out of the tanking business after another shocking win. Can they keep it rolling in New York? Photo from @Phinscom (Twitter).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are looking for revenge for last year’s AFC Championship 
  • The Miami Dolphins are looking to pass the Jets in the standings because this league doesn’t make sense
  • Well, the parlay was a bad idea. Upset picks went 0-1 last week after Nick Foles turned back into a pumpkin

There’s not much to like for upsets in a loaded NFL Week 14 that sees four matchups between teams with a winning record. But there’s a couple dogs that jump out as decent plays this week. (We won’t make the greedy call of parlaying these two healthy upset picks again.)

This week, we like two road teams led by two men who are doing some damn fine quarterbacking right now. (Spoiler alert: one of those men is Ryan Fitzpatrick.)

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Kansas City Chiefs +3 +150
New England Patriots -3 -170

Odds taken Dec. 6.

It’s odd that we’ve picked against the Patriots so much this year, but this the most vulnerable they’ve looked over the past decade. Their issues were on full display versus Houston last week in a disheartening 28-22 loss that wasn’t as close as the score indicates.

When the Pats and Chiefs met last year, New England needed to score 43 and 37 points to pull out a pair of tight wins. Is there any way you can envision this offense scoring over 30 points this time around? They can’t run the ball effectively like they did in 2018 and their receivers have been terrible.

For New England to win, their defense will need to have a dominant effort. But Kansas City has shown in the past they can get their running backs favorable matchups against the Pats linebackers and torch them that way.

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It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Kansas City catches New England and steals that first round bye. But they absolutely need to win this game for that to happen. I like their chances of getting it done.

Pick: 2 units on the Chiefs moneyline (+150)

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Miami Dolphins +5 +205
New York Jets -5 -245

Odds taken Dec. 6.

When the Jets lost to the Dolphins a few weeks ago, it was seen as an embarrassment: grounds for potentially firing Adam Gase. Since then, well, Gase still hasn’t really proven himself to be the right man for the job. But the man he’ll be coaching against on Sunday has.

Brian Flores has this bad Dolphins roster playing some of the most exciting football in the entire league. He’s just a flat out good coach who understands he needs to take risks to win with this bunch.

Sam Darnold put up some impressive numbers last month while feasting on some the league’s worst defenses, but Miami’s offense actually ranks ahead of the Jets in DVOA. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s return gave this team new life and finally brought the DeVante Parker breakout season that had been forecast for the four years.

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This spread shows that there’s still some lingering impact from how bad Miami was to start the year, because it really should be a 3-point game. Miami is 6-2 ATS in their last eight. New York meanwhile, is 0-3 straight up when favored this season.

Pick: 1 unit on the Dolphins moneyline (+205)

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