Week 1 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Revenge Time for Mayfield and Wilson
- Week 1 of the NFL season began with the Buffalo Bills (-2) covering easily on the road in a 31-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams
- Baker Mayfield and the Carolina Panthers are taking on his old team the Cleveland Browns on Sunday at a pick’em price
- Read below for an analysis of our best Week 1 NFL picks against the spread
Revenge is on the menu in our NFL picks against the spread as Week 1 of the regular season gets ready for the weekend action.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield is leading the Carolina Panthers into action against his old club, the Cleveland Browns. After 10 seasons at the helm of the Seattle Seahawks, QB Russell Wilson was jettisoned to the Denver Broncos. So where are the Broncos playing during Week 1? Why if it isn’t at Seattle against the Seahawks.
There are also some great traditional rivalries on tap in the NFL odds for Week 1. The Minnesota Vikings meet the Green Bay Packers in an NFC North showdown. In Cincinnati, the AFC champion Bengals are clashing with the hated Pittsburgh Steelers.
So strap in, strap on that helmet and get ready for the best of the Week 1 NFL ATS picks.
NFL Week 1 ATS Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers | PICK | CAR | 1 |
| Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings | GB -1.5 | MINN +1.5 | 1 |
| Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks | DEN -6.5 | DEN -6.5 | 1 |
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Our top picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Panthers, Vikings and Broncos.
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Pick 1: Baker Buries Browns
Talk about history repeating itself. A year ago, the Panthers acquired QB Sam Darnold from the New York Jets and then beat the Jets in Week 1. This year, it’s Mayfield who’s getting to whip up on his old club at Carolina’s helm. Public bettors are backing the Panthers with 79% of the spread handle.
Myles Garrett says he received a text from Baker Mayfield after the Panthers trade saying the QB appreciated the time they spent together. Garrett didn't respond.
"I didn’t really have much to say and I didn’t know how reply to it, so I didn’t."
(via @MaryKayCabot) pic.twitter.com/UPHNsDCiti
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) September 8, 2022
All-purpose threat Christan McCaffrey is healthy for the Panthers, though does have a minor shin injury which made him pop up on the injury report. Jacoby Brissett and his 14-23 record as an NFL starter is at the controls for Cleveland. And don’t forget, the Browns are 0-16-1 SU in their last 17 season openers.
Pick: Carolina (PICK)
Pick 2: Vikings Lay Siege to Packers
Green Bay has won the past three NFC North titles. It’s been five years since Minnesota wore the division crown.
There’s a different feel to the NFC North this season. Green Bay no longer has Davante Adams to get on the other end of Aaron Rodgers’ aerials.
Za'Darius Smith is one of several former Green Bay Packers connections in the #Vikings locker room this season.
His 8th season in the NFL kicks off Sunday against his former team and Aaron Rodgers. pic.twitter.com/uNZ1mljUrn
— Alec Ausmus (@A_TwiceKSTP) September 5, 2022
Minnesota has a new coach in Kevin O’Connell, and a sense that he’s got a better handle on how to utilize an offense that suits up QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson.
There’s also the fact that in the Packers vs Vikings odds when the Vikings are 1.5-point underdogs, Minnesota is showing a 7-6-1 SU edge in the past 14 games.
Pick: Minnesota (+1.5)
Pick 3: Broncos Slap Seahawks
With the departure of Wilson, the Seahawks entered full rebuild mode. They also jettisoned veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner. The Denver vs Seattle total is now 43.5, which has increased a full point.
Russell Wilson looks back fondly on his time as a Seahawk. pic.twitter.com/ttkQPZKQyu
— theScore (@theScore) September 8, 2022
Seattle will need to play ball control and run the ball with Rashaad Penny. He was the most productive RB over the final third of last season. However, that will prove a tall order against a stiff Denver defense.
Pick: Denver (-6.5)
NFL Week 1 ATS Quick Picks
- Dolphins (-3.5) vs Patriots: Miami is 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine home games against New England.
- Eagles (-4) vs Lions: The Eagles were 44-6 winners at Detroit last season.
- Ravens (-7) vs Jets: Speaking of reunions, ex-Ravens QB Joe Flacco is starting for the Jets. That’s great news – for Baltimore.
- 49ers (-7) vs Bears: San Francisco is 5-0 ATS over the past five games and 14-6 ATS in the last 20 against Chicago.
- Colts (-7) vs Texans: The Matt Ryan era in Indianapolis gets off to a much better start than the Lovie Smith era in Houston.
- Jaguars (+2.5) vs Commanders: Two years ago, Jacksonville stunned Indianapolis in Week 1. Last year, Carson Wentz was Indy’s QB. This year, he’s Washington’s QB. See how it all makes perfect sense?
- Saints (-5.5) vs Falcons: Seven years ago, the two starting QBs in this game, Jameis Winston of New Orleans and Marcus Mariota of Atlanta, went 1-2 in the NFL Draft.
- Steelers (+6.5) vs Bengals: Super Bowl losers are 4-18 ATS in Week 1 of the following season over the past 22 years.
- Chiefs (-6) vs Cardinals: Arizona is weak on the corners. Patrick Mahomes is Kansas City’s QB. Enough said.
- Chargers (-3) vs Raiders: Think Chargers LB Khalil Mack will be fired up facing his old team?
- Giants (+5.5) vs Titans: New York’s football Giants probably won’t win, but they’ll keep it close.
- Buccaneers (-2.5) vs Cowboys: Both these teams have questionable offensive lines. But it’s Dallas that is undisciplined and that will cost the Cowboys the game.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
