Week 11 NFL Props: Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints
- The Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints highlight our Week 11 NFL props.
- Philly is currently 4-5 and 3rd in the NFC East; New Orleans is 8-1, sitting atop the NFC South.
- Kickoff is slated for 4:25 EST at the Superdome.
At the beginning of the season, this looked like a primetime matchup.
The Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, with Carson Wentz back, going up against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. It could’ve been an NFC Championship preview.
While it still could be a potential playoff match-up, the Eagles have a lot of work to do to hold up their end of the bargain. Their rocky season continued with a loss to the Cowboys last Sunday night.
They’ll be in tough to get back into the win column against the Saints, who are flat-out rolling.
Week 11 NFL Props: Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints
Prop #1: Will the Eagles score a 1st-quarter TD?
| Will the Eagles score a touchdown in the first quarter? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -160 |
| No | +120 |
After fielding the third-highest scoring offense last season, the Eagles have struggled to get it started this year.
Through nine games, they’ve scored 198 total points and are averaging 22 points per game, which is 22nd in the NFL. That’s despite sitting 13th in yards per game.
Asked Jason Kelce if there was one overriding issue affecting the #Eagles. He spoke only for the offense, but he gave long, thoughtful answers. He spoke about turnover and accountability, but his answer was nuanced, so here is the full text:
— Jeff McLane (@Jeff_McLane) November 14, 2018
A big problem is scoring in the first quarter, which is to say, they haven’t.
| No | Week 5 | No |
| Yes | Week 6 | BYE |
| No | Week 7 | No |
| No | Week 8 | Yes |
| BYE | Week 9 | Yes |
| No | Week 10 | Yes |
Over the last six weeks (including bye), the Eagles have scored in the opening frame once (including both TDs and FGs). That was when they put up 14 points against a hapless Giants team.
Carson Wentz on the #Eagles struggles on offense: pic.twitter.com/wKGCuUAVvG
— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) November 14, 2018
Could they solve their issues against the Saints? Maybe.
New Orleans has had its own first-quarter troubles. They’ve allowed points in the first 15 minutes in all but one of the past six weeks. They’ve also given up the fifth-most yards through the air at 2,655.
The #Saints have scored at least 40 points in 3 of their 4 home games this season. #Eagles offense is going to need their best game of the season to keep things close.
— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) November 15, 2018
If Carson Wentz is going to beat you, it’s through the air. The Eagles are averaging just 102.7 yards per game on the ground (22nd). They’d just be slamming their head off a wall trying to run on the Saints, who are first in the league in rush defense.
The Pick: Philadelphia scores a 1st-quarter TD (-160)
Prop #2: Alshon Jeffery has 6+ catches and 89+ receiving yards
| Alshon Jeffery Props | Odds |
|---|---|
| 6+ catches | +150 |
| 89+ receiving yards | +133 |
Alshon Jeffery hasn’t been overly productive the last two games.
Sandwiched around the bye, he had less-than-great outings against the Jaguars and Cowboys. But looming before those is a nice performance against the Panthers.
| Week/Opponent | Catches | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 vs CAR | 7 | 88 | 1 |
| Week 8 @ JAX | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Week 10 vs DAL | 4 | 48 | 0 |
Can Jeffery be the number-one wideout the Eagles need him to be against the Saints? There’s a good chance he has a big day.
Let’s start with the Saints’ secondary: it hasn’t been good. Of the five cornerbacks on their roster with at least 60 coverage snaps, only one has an opposing passer rating below 100, and that’s Patrick Robinson, who hasn’t played since late September because of a broken ankle.
Shot 7 – Lastly, let's talk about Marshon Lattimore, one of the most physically gifted corners in the NFL. Will he travel with Alshon Jeffery on Sunday? He's done less of that this year but it's certainly possible. One of the things I'll be keying in on early in the game #Eagles pic.twitter.com/m9QnlyUJDz
— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) November 16, 2018
P.J. Williams, Ken Crawley and Marshon Lattimore are all allowing catches at a 70% rate. Lattimore is the only one of the trio allowing less than four catches per game (3.1/game). Since coming to New Orleans, Eli Apple has been targeted 23 times. He has allowed 17 receptions.
There is nothing suggesting that the Saints can slow down Jeffery.
The Picks: Alshon Jeffery has 6+ catches (+150) and 89+ receiving yards (+133)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
