NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread: Baker Beats the Bucs

• Find our three best bets against the spread for Week 7 of the 2018 NFL season
• ATS Picks for each game of the week
• Season record = 6-9-3

We stopped the bleeding in Week 6 and put together a 2-1 record against the spread, bringing our season total to 6-9-3.

Now it’s time to get on a little heater.

Here’s how we’ll attack Week 7.

NFL Week 7 Best ATS Picks

Pick #1: Saints Over the Ravens

*Odds taken 10/12

The Baltimore Ravens enter Week 7 allowing the fewest yards per game and points per game. Their defense has been downright dominant.

But if you look a little closer, their defensive numbers become a little less impressive.

The Ravens have only played two teams with offenses in the top half of the league in points scored: the Bengals (6th) and Steelers (7th). The former laid 34 on them and the latter scored 14 points in the first half before completely melting down in the second half.

265 yards passing.
4 touchdowns.@andydalton14‘s BEST PLAYS from Week 2! #BALvsCIN #SeizeTheDEY pic.twitter.com/y7gLCeijdt

— NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2018

The Ravens have allowed just 29 points to their other four opponents combined.

But this week Baltimore has to deal with the league’s highest scoring offense, which is really saying something when you remember the Rams and Chiefs explosive offenses exist.

The NFL’s all-time leading passer ???

Highlights from @drewbrees‘ big night on #MNF! #WASvsNO #GoSaints pic.twitter.com/yGSSpIcict

— NFL (@NFL) October 9, 2018

The Saints offense looks nearly unstoppable right now. Drew Brees is playing at an MVP level, with a 122.3 passer rating through his first five games, and Mark Ingram’s return only appears to have made them more dangerous.

You don’t want to make a habit of betting against the Ravens at home, but there is no circumstance where New Orleans should be getting points right now.

Pick: Saints (+2.5)

Pick #2: Browns Over the Buccaneers

I don’t care where they’re playing, there’s no reason the league’s worst defense should be laying 3.5 points to anyone.

The Bucs’ have allowed the most points in the league, the second-most yards, the most passing yards, the most passing TDs, and the third-most first downs.

FINAL: @AtlantaFalcons hang on and WIN! #InBrotherhood #TBvsATL pic.twitter.com/A2UwpnolhZ

— NFL (@NFL) October 14, 2018

Firing defensive coordinator Mike Smith is a good start, but it’s not going to fix everything immediately.

Baker Mayfield is going to tear this secondary apart, while Jameis Winston shows some flashes but ultimately loses the game due to a couple costly turnovers.

Pick: Browns (+3.5)

Pick #3: Bills Cover in Indianapolis

I have certainly spent my share of time picking on the Bills this season. But every single criticism I have had about them has been focused on their offense, and more specifically, their QB.

Whether it was Nathan Peterman or Josh Allen, I believed the Bills had the worst starting quarterback in the NFL each week.

HOUSE CALL ?

Houston takes the late lead vs. Buffalo!
?: FOX #BUFvsHOUpic.twitter.com/05Td21xZ8C

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 14, 2018

These two pivots led Buffalo to a despicable 12.7 points per game, a league-low, and the second-fewest yards per game in the NFL.

Fortunately, the Bills finally threw in the towel on Peterman, and have opted to start Derek Anderson under center for Week 7. Sure, Anderson isn’t spectacular. But he is a serviceable QB who is capable of making simple reads and throwing to open receivers.

How did @MatthewMilanoo do that?!#BUFvsMIN #GoBills pic.twitter.com/hvTjo2ESrX

— Buffalo Bills (@buffalobills) September 23, 2018

With Anderson at QB, the Bills defense, which ranks sixth against the pass and eighth against the run, will get the opportunity to showcase just how strong they are.

We see you, defense. ?#BUFvsMIN #GoBills pic.twitter.com/u7QJcVJR3F

— Buffalo Bills (@buffalobills) September 23, 2018

Averaging two takeaways per game, look for the Bills defense to take advantage of a shaky Colts line and a turnover-prone Andrew Luck.

Pick: Bills (+7.5)

Full Week 7 Picks Against the Spread