With Wentz Returning, Do the Eagles Present Super Bowl 53 Value?

• The Super Bowl champs have seen their average odds slip to +1200
• These are the longest odds Philadelphia has seen all year
• With starting QB Carson Wentz returning, is there value in betting the Eagles to win Super Bowl 53?

The Eagles’ offense, led by Super Bowl 52 MVP Nick Foles, has stalled the first two weeks of the 2018 NFL season. As a result, Philly heads into a Week 3 matchup with the Colts at 1-1.

But Foles won’t be under center on Sunday, as Carson Wentz will make his 2018 debut.

The Eagles Week 2 loss to Tampa Bay saw their average odds to win Super Bowl 53 go all the way to +1200, which is the longest they’ve seen all year. Is there value in a repeat now that Wentz is back?

Average Odds to Win Super Bowl 53 for Top Contenders

Repeating as Super Bowl champions is a herculean task. The amount of things that need to go right to make it through a season healthy and into the playoffs, much less survive the grind of another month of playoff football, is tough.

No team has won back-to-back Super Bowls since the New England Patriots won in 2003 and 2004.

Odds to Win Super Bowl 53

Will Wentz Solve All of Philadelphia’s Problems?

Not being cleared for contact in time to start the season, Wentz has now been given the green light to return from a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee.

I listen to Dr. Chao, a former NFL Head Team Doctor (see Tweet below) on various podcasts and he’s mentioned it’s impossible for Wentz to be 100% right now. That’s not to say he isn’t game ready, but Chao says it could be anywhere up to 18 months until Wentz will be fully healed.

Congratulations to @cj_wentz & @Eagles.
No question this is a speedy recovery for a two ligament knee injury. https://t.co/axxFVrPFuI

— David J. Chao – ProFootballDoc (@ProFootballDoc) September 17, 2018

Given his mobile style at playing the position we can look to a couple comparable examples:

• Robert Griffin III was never the same after his ACL injury in 2013
• However another Eagles’ QB, Donovan McNabb, tore his ACL way back in 2006, but returned to lead Philly to the NFC Finals the following year
• Plenty of other QBs including Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer have all returned from the injury to have successful careers as well

How Wentz’s knee holds up this season is key because we’ve seen how limited Philadelphia’s offense has looked with Nick Foles at the helm. After two weeks Philly ranks 24th offensively in YPG, which actually ranks behind the Browns of all teams.

While Wentz is returning, the Eagles’ offense is starting to accumulate injuries with WRs Alshon Jeffrey already week-to-week after offseason shoulder surgery, and Mike Wallace being carted off last week with a fractured fibula.

Could the Eagles be forced to sign Dez Bryant? Mike Wallace, Alshon Jeffrey and Mack Hollins are injured. And the Patriots grabbed Josh Gordon in a trade yesterday. Who will Carson Wentz throw to (besides Zach Ertz)? https://t.co/oj1OBrnsP8 pic.twitter.com/J6MzLLfzhz

— Matt O'Donnell (@matt_odonnell) September 18, 2018

Eagles at Least Still NFC East Favorites

Philadelphia still holds the best odds of -160 in sportsbooks to win their division, which would give them an inside track to the playoffs. None of Dallas, Washington, or the New York Giants have looked impressive so far, and the Eagles have still scored the most points of anyone in the division.

Cowboys rise to the top of the NFC East after tonight's win 🙌 pic.twitter.com/ude6voymY2

— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) September 17, 2018

Philly was dominant against their division foes last year going 5-1, and similar results in 2018 could see them claim the division crown again. A home date in the playoffs could create a path where Philly returns to the big game.

Do Wentz and the Eagles Offer Value in Super Bowl 53 Betting?

If you felt confident in the Eagles’ chances at the start of the year, with average odds of +740, then taking a position on them now at +1200 definitely presents some value.

However, I see a few too many question marks right now to see them repeating.

The NFC is full of top-end teams and there’s even more value on New Orleans and Atlanta (+1800). Over in the AFC you could also look to the Chiefs at similar +1200 odds, who have a more clear path in a weaker conference.