NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

• The 2025 NFL Wild Card matchups are set and will take place from Saturday (Jan. 11) to Monday (Jan. 13)
• The Houston Texans are field-goal underdogs at home against the Los Angeles Chargers
• Below, see my three favorites Wild Card weekend picks against the spread

A scant 18 weeks later the regular season is in the books and NFL Wild Card weekend is just around the corner. The NFL playoff bracket wasn’t officially cemented until the final game of the season when Detroit clinched the NFC #1 seed over Minnesota, which left the 14-3 Vikings hitting the road to face the Rams next Monday. Bettors can follow this link to see the opening Wild Card weekend odds for all six games. Below, find my three favorite lines to target early in the week.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks Against the Spread

I am taking three underdogs in my Wild Card weekend ATS picks and, with two of them, I am moving the line half a point to get a field goal plus a hook.

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Wild Card Weekend ATS Pick #1: Texans +3.5 (-132) vs Chargers

My first Wild Card ATS pick is from the first game on the docket: Chargers at Texans. Houston (10-7, 5-3 home, 7-8-2 ATS) didn’t look good down the stretch. They lost two of their last three, and the only victory in that span was a 23-14 win over Tennessee in Week 18 with Davis Mills playing most of the game at QB. Despite finishing three games over .500, they ended the regular season with a +0 point differential.

Injuries on both sides of the ball took their toll, which is why it was imperative that head coach DeMeco Ryans was able to give some of his starters a rest yesterday in a mean-nothing game.

The Chargers (11-6, 6-3 away, 12-5 ATS), on the other hand, were +101 and rate better than the Texans in DVOA (9th at +11.7% vs 14th at +5.6%) and at PFF (6th at 89.3 vs 13th at 83.9). LAC also tied for the first in the NFL ATS records during the regular season at 12-5 against the number. The Chargers seemed to find their footing of offense in the last few weeks of the season, averaging 36.0 PPG in their final three against the Broncos, Patriots, and Raiders. But prior to that string of victories, LAC was averaging just 21.0 PPG and had one of the more anemic attacks in the league.

Houston can’t replace WRs Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, who are both on IR, but with Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz, and Joe Mixon, they have enough firepower at the skill positions to keep up with a Charger offense that I expect to come back to earth in the postseason. Houston finished fourth in the NFL in sacks (49) and could feast on an LAC offensive line that allowed 44 QB takedowns.

All in all, I see a close, low-scoring game and will gladly lay a little extra juice to get Houston +3.5 at home.

Wild Card Weekend ATS Pick #2: Broncos +9.0 (-110) at Bills

The biggest spread of Wild Card weekend sees the Buffalo Bills (13-4, 8-0 home, 10-7 ATS) laying a full nine points to the Denver Broncos (10-7, 4-5 away, 12-5 ATS).

Along with KC, Buffalo was one of just two teams to finish the season undefeated at home, going a perfect 8-0 straight-up. They were, however, just 5-3 at home against the spread, and their +157 point differential (second in the AFC) was only marginally better than Denver’s +114 mark (third in the AFC).

Denver didn’t technically get to rest its starters in Week 18, needing a win to secure a playoff spot. But their 38-0 rout against a KC team that was resting all of significant starters won’t have been too taxing. The Broncos enter the postseason about as healthy as any team in the league.

There isn’t anything supernatural about this pick. Denver has been better than oddsmakers expected all season, which is why they tied with the Chargers and Lions with a league-best 12-5 ATS record. They have a rock-solid defense and multifaceted offense that can move the ball through the air or on the ground as long as rookie QB Bo Nix doesn’t implode.

Wild Card Weekend ATS Pick #3: Commanders +3.5 (-114) at Buccaneers

My final pick for Wild Card weekend is the Washington Commanders (12-5, 5-3 away, 10-6-1 ATS) to cover +3.5 on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7, 5-4 home, 10-7 ATS), who are one of the most frustratingly inconsistent teams in the league.

The Bucs dominated the Commanders, 37-20, all the way back in Week 1 when Commanders rookie pivot Jalen Daniels was making his first career start. Tampa also looked like a legit Super Bowl contender while beating the Lions in Detroit in Week 2 (20-16) and the Eagles at home in Week 4 (33-16).

But their resume also includes losses to the injury-riddled 49ers (23-20 in Week 10) and Cowboys (26-24 in Week 16), along with narrow escapes over the Panthers (26-23 OT in Week 13) and Saints (27-19 in Week 18). The Tampa defense, which rates just 21st at PFF, is susceptible to big plays and I firmly believe the well-rounded Commanders are going to keep this close throughout, if not pull off the outright upset.

Bookmark SBD’s Super Bowl odds to see the latest lines to win the Lombardi Trophy and our NFL odds page to follow the odds movement during the course of the week.