Will Jameis Winston Return as the Bucs’ Starting QB in Week 4?

• Jameis Winston is favored to retain his job upon completing his suspension in Week 3
• Will Winston’s strong preseason be enough to see him step back in as the starter?
• Or will Ryan Fitzpatrick continue to impress and make a case for the starting role?
  

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Jameis Winston is sitting out the first three games of the NFL season after being suspended for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. This sets up his return for Week 4 on the road to the Chicago Bears. After Ryan Fitzpatrick’s five-touchdown performance against the Saints, that return could be in question.

Online betting sites are offering odds on who will start for the Bucs in Week 4, with Winston listed a heavy favorite.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Starting QB Week 4 Odds

With Winston out, the veteran backup Fitzpatrick was pressed into action on the road. With minimal expectations against the New Orleans Saints, “Fitzmagic” impressed in a big way. A 21/28 day for 417 yards passing with four TDs, plus another 36 yards rushing and another TD on the ground, has opened a starting QB debate. The Bucs’ won outright 48-40 despite being as high as ten point underdogs.

Will Fitzpatrick Take Winston’s Job?

Fitzpatrick looked amazing but can he follow it up? It will be next to impossible to replicate those 417 yards in the coming weeks. Last season in six games he totalled 1,103 yards.

Furthermore, in 2016 he played 14 games with the Jets and only had 2,710 yards with seven TDs and three INTs. He certainly has the capability to stay hot though, considering he had a career-year only three years ago in 2015 with 31 TDs.

Staying hot the following two games won’t be easy. The Bucs will have home field advantage but will be dogs in both games. This week they are currently three-point underdogs at home to Philly and their own backup QB in Nick Foles. Tampa Bay is expected to be  four-point dogs for the Monday Nighter at home to Pittsburgh.

This is still Jameis’ team and the expectation remains he’ll be back under centre in Week 4. Winston looked fantastic in preseason in going 30/41 for 388 yards and three TDs. His completion percentage of 73.2 and passer rating of 126.9 were also impressive.

In 13 games last year Winston ranked eighth in the league in passing YPG with 269.5 and ranked 13th in total yards. In 2016 he tied for seventh overall in TDs with 28.

Winston vs Fitzpatrick Statistical Comparison

*The stats above represent each player’s averages over the past two NFL seasons

Another wrinkle to this could be Bucs’ management. General Manager Jason Licht was non-committal to Winston regaining his job immediately.

“[If] Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Griffin, whoever it is, is playing lights out, I don’t think it’s fair right now just to say, ‘Yes, automatically, [Jameis] is going to be the guy,'” Licht said. “Now, he may be. Dirk and I — Dirk in particular — he’s got some time to think about that.”

“I am ALL IN on Fitzmagic… I don't think Jameis Winston gets his job back." — Clay Travis pic.twitter.com/t7hu03kXlt

— Lock It In (@LockItInonFS1) September 10, 2018

Will Winston Be the Buc’s Starting QB in Week 4?

Week 1 opened the discussion on this position battle but the following two weeks will be more telling. It would be little surprise if Fitzpatrick came back to earth. However, if the Bucs can keep winning, or win at least one of the next two or possibly even remain competitive in both, Koetter, who’s one of the favorites to lose his job first among NFL head coaches will likely stay with the hot hand.

From a value perspective right now, Fitzy presents the best bet to keep the job if he keeps the Bucs rolling.

Pick: Ryan Fitzpatrick +200