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Now Favored, Could Tampa’s Dirk Koetter be the First NFL Coach Fired?

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Dec 20, 2022 · 8:52 AM PST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers helmet
The outlook in Tampa Bay is not optimistic for either the team or Head Coach Dirk Koetter. Photo by Keith Allison {flickr) [CC License].
  • Tampa Bay’s Dirk Koetter has seen his odds shorten to become one of the favorites to be the first NFL coach fired
  • Koetter and Cleveland’s Hue Jackson are now co-favorites to be fired first
  • Which other coaches offer the best value for this prop bet?

A popular game to play each year is betting on which NFL Head Coach will be fired first. Two coaches now sit tied atop the betting odds to receive that dubious honor.

When this prop was first posted a few months ago, Cleveland Browns’ head coach Hue Jackson was the number one choice to be the first coach canned. Now two games into the preseason schedule and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ head man Dirk Koetter has seen his odds shorten to now have equal odds with Jackson. Both coaches are now co-“favorites” to get their marching orders first at +400.

But Koetter has seen the most action considering he opened at +1200.

A few factors could be playing into this, with the obvious one being the absence of starting quarterback Jameis Winston for Tampa Bay’s first three games. Winston was suspended for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.

The Buc’s opening schedule was already hard enough with opening games against New Orleans, Philly and Pittsburgh, and will be made harder without Winston. Two road games in Chicago and Atlanta follow which won’t offer much relief. Based on opening projected wins, the Bucs will face the third-hardest overall schedule in 2018.

Based on opening projected wins, the Bucs will face the third-hardest overall schedule in 2018.

With Winston’s participation, the Bucs have looked strong in preseason with a 26-24 road win over Miami, followed up with a 30-14 win over Tennessee. Against the Titans, Winston was 13/18 for 226 yards and 2 TDs.

But what about Jackson? The fact he has one win in two years and is still employed is mind boggling. I can’t think of many other professions where you could be so consistently poor and remain employed. The thing is, the Browns had a strong offseason, making key signings and draft picks all over the roster. Most pundits are predicting them to go over their season win total and it’s virtually impossible for them to be any worse.

A few wins, or maybe even a couple wins in the opening months, could be enough for Jackson to stay employed for the remainder of the year.

It won’t be easy though, as Cleveland will face Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Oakland, Baltimore, and the LA Chargers in the opening six weeks. Could a Week 7 showdown with Koetter and the Bucs be the deciding factor in one man’s fate?

Koetter vs Jackson

Koetter
VS
Jackson
14-18 Record With Team 1-31
5-11 2017 Record 0-16
3 Years With Team 3
9th 2017 Offense Rank (YPG) 24th
32nd 2017 Defense Rank (YPG) 14th

The Rest of the Contenders

Let’s take a look at the full list of odds.

NFL Head Coach Odds to be Fired First in 2018
 Dirk Koetter (Buccaneers) +400
Hue Jackson  (Browns) +400
Vance Joseph (Broncos) +600
 Adam Gase (Dolphins) +750
Marvin Lewis (Bengals) +1000
Todd Bowles (Jets) +1200
Jay Gruden (Redskins) +1400
Bill O’Brien (Texans) +2000
Jason Garrett (Cowboys) +2000
John Harbaugh (Ravens) +2000
Pete Carroll (Seahawks) +2200
Frank Reich (Indy) +3300
Jon Gruden (Raiders) +3300
Matt Nagy (Chicago) +3300

NFL Head Coach Odds to be Fired First in 2018
Doug Marrone (Jacksonville) +4000
Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh) +4000
Mike Vrabel (Tennessee) +4000
Ron Rivera (Panthers) +4000
Anthony Lynn (LA Chargers) +5000
Dan Quinn (Atlanta) +5000
Mike McCarthy (Green Bay) +5000
Steve Wilks (Arizona) +6600
Matt Patricia (Detroit) +7500
Mike Zimmer (Minnesota) +7500
Bill Belichick (New England) +10000
Kyle Shanahan (San Fran) +10000
Sean McVay (LA Rams) +10000
Doug Pederson (Philadelphia) +15000

Best Bet

The early value is long gone from Koetter, but maybe the steam move is right. The vultures could be circling around Koetter after he and the Bucs took a step back last year. Things have also not fallen favorably for him in 2018 with a tough schedule and no Winston to start the year. Koetter +400.

The vultures could be circling around Koetter after he and the Bucs took a step back last year.

Back in May I discussed how I believed Jay Gruden offered the best value to be fired first. I’ll maintain that as a decent value bet as well for Jay Gruden at +1400. And finally, it may seem ridiculous, but from a pure value perspective would a long shot play on Bill Belichick at +10000 be the worst option? Controversy and drama were rampant in Foxborough last year, the Pats have lost several players and if by any chance they get off to a slow start, maybe owner Robert Kraft pulls the plug on The Hoodie.

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