Capitals vs Oilers Prediction, Odds & Starting Goalies (Jan. 21)

By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:

- The Washington Capitals (31-10-5) visit the Edmonton Oilers (29-14-3) on Tuesday night
- The Oilers will be without Connor McDavid against Alex Ovechkin and the Caps
- Read our Capitals vs Oilers prediction and pick for this matchup on January 21, 2025
The NHL-leading Washington Capitals (31-10-5) head north of the border to battle the Edmonton Oilers (29-14-3) at Rogers Place on Tuesday, January 21, 2025. Puck drop is scheduled for 9:00 PM Eastern Time, with the game televised on Sportsnet and MNMT.
Edmonton is a -150 home favorite, while the over/under is set at 5.5 goals. Will the Oilers prove the oddsmakers right and defend home ice without suspended superstar Connor McDavid?
Let’s analyze this East tilt and make our Capitals vs Oilers prediction.
Capitals vs Oilers Prediction
I’m taking the Oilers to get the job done on home ice, even without McDavid in the lineup. The betting market has undervalued Edmonton in this spot due to McDavid’s three-game ban and the public heavily backing Washington.
However, the Oilers are no one-trick pony, having posted a 22-27-10 record without McDavid over the years. With the likes of Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and more, they still have the firepower to light the lamp. Edmonton is also highly motivated to bounce back from a tough loss to the rival Canucks that snapped their four-game win streak.
Sharp money is pouring in on the Oilers as well, moving the line from Edmonton -140 to -150 despite McDavid’s absence and the public backing the Caps. The wise guys clearly see value on the Oilers at home against a Washington team that’s primed for regression.
While the Capitals own the NHL’s best record, a deeper look at their last 10 games reveals poor possession numbers (47.31% Corsi For, 47.25% Fenwick For), being outshot (44.62% Shot Share), and subpar Scoring Chance (46.82%) and High-Danger Chance (47.53%) shares. Most concerningly, Washington has an unsustainably high 1.057 PDO, driven by an inflated 10.34% shooting percentage and 95.37% save percentage.
The Caps have rode a PDO bender and incredible goaltending from Logan Thompson to this point, but it feels like smoke and mirrors compared to the rock solid underlying metrics boasted by Edmonton. The Oilers should control play at 5v5.
Finally, Edmonton’s stellar 15-7-1 home record and rowdy Rogers Place crowd can’t be overlooked. I’m grabbing the Oilers moneyline at a decent -150 price before it steams any higher. Edmonton has the edge in advanced stats, scoring depth, motivation and home ice to prevail even without their captain. Lay the juice on the Oil.
Tuesday NHL Pick:
- Oilers Moneyline (-140 at Bet99)
Capitals vs Oilers Odds
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
WSH Capitals | +1.5 (-236) | +120 | Over 5.5 (-115) |
EDM Oilers | -1.5 (+165) | -140 | Under 5.5 (-105) |
The Oilers are -140 moneyline favorites to come out on top. A successful $140 wager on Edmonton would profit $100. The Capitals are +120 underdogs – a $100 bet would net $120.
Edmonton is +165 to cover -1.5 goals, while Washington is -236 to stay within 1.5 goals. The over/under is set at a modest 5.5 goals, with the over slightly favored at -115 and the under at -105.
Odds as of Jan. 21, at Bet99. See our Bet99 review page for current offers.
Projected Starting Goalies
Team | Goalie | Record | GAA | SV% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Capitals | Logan Thompson | 21-2-3 | 2.09 | .925 |
Oilers | Stuart Skinner | 18-10-3 | 2.70 | .901 |
At first glance, Thompson has a statistical advantage over Skinner. The Caps netminder has been in the Vezina Trophy conversation all season long and enters on an incredible run. However, we already touched on Washington’s unsustainable team save percentage of 95.37%. Some cracks are beginning to show.
Meanwhile, Skinner has been very solid in his own right with an 18-10-3 record. The Oilers allow the fewest goals per game (2.43) and shots per game (27.4) in the league, which makes Skinner’s job much easier. They also kill penalties at an impressive 84.2% clip (3rd).
The Oil have too many edges in their favor to pass up at this price. Trust Edmonton’s 5v5 play, depth and lively crowd to carry them sans McDavid. The Oilers moneyline is the play.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.