Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Islanders Game 4 Odds & Picks – Aug. 30
- The Islanders scored three-unanswered goals against the Flyers to win Game 3, 3-1
- Semyon Varlamov was largely untested, only having to make 26 saves
- Game 4 goes Sunday at 8pm ET – we examine the odds and give our pick
The Philadelphia Flyers are falling victim to the same trap the Islanders laid for the Washington Capitals.
In Game 3, the Islanders smothered the Flyers, steering things to the perimeter. Offensively, New York did just enough, getting key contributions from unlikely places once again. It was a direct copy of Game 1.
Now the Islanders have a chance to go up 3-1 in their series on Sunday.
Flyers vs Islanders: Game 4 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Puckline | Total at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | +102 | +1.5 (-286) | Over 5 (-107) |
| New York Islanders | -118 | -1.5 (+230) | Under 5 (-114) |
Odds as of Aug 29th.
The Flyers vs Islanders odds have continued to shift to the Isles’ favor as things have progressed. They went from +100 to win Game 2, to a pick’em in Game 3, and now they’re the favored side.
The total continues to be split, however, although the under has hit in two of the three games.
Flyers Couldn’t Keep Semyon Varlamov Busy
Following Game 2 when they chased Semyon Varlamov to the bench before the first period was over, it seemed like the Flyers had figured something out.
Well in Game 3, Varlamov didn’t have to break a sweat until the third period.
Varlamov Period-by-Period Breakdown
| Game | 1st Period Saves/Shots | 2nd Period Saves/Shots | 3rd Period Saves/Shots | High-Danger Chances Faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | 4/4 | 15/15 | 10/10 | 9 |
| Game 2 | 7/10 | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Game 3 | 8/9 | 6/6 | 12/12 | 8 |
In our preview of Game 3, we pointed out that after Thomas Greiss came in, the Flyers’ offense went back into its shell.
They managed nine shots in the second period and eight in the third. If you ignore overtime, Philly started Game 3 as meekly as they finished Game 2.
Semyon Varlamov following an #Isles loss this postseason:
3-0, 0.67 GAA, .973 sv pct
>1 shutout#StanleyCup #PHIvsNYI— Darin Stephens (@SharksStats) August 30, 2020
The bright side here is that those 12 shots in the third period are their second-highest total in any period of the series. The thing is, the Flyers’ forwards still aren’t creating high-danger chances.
👀#Isles Semyon Varlamov save on #AnytimeAnywhere Joel Farabee pic.twitter.com/ikt7KX795r
— Fuck Dave Portnoy ⬇️ (@TheReplayGuy) August 30, 2020
After throwing four on net in the first period, they were only able to manage two in both the second and third.
Philly Still Searching for Top-End Production
Through two games, Kevin Hayes has been the Flyers’ best forward.
He had two goals to show for his trouble. And they both came in the first period of Game 2.
Once again, the Flyers' best players need to be their best players. Period.
— Ryan Gilbert (@RGilbertSOP) August 30, 2020
On Saturday though, he went silent. The same can be said of his other high-profile teammates, as they continue to struggle to generate offense.
Flyers: First Period of Game 2 vs Rest of Series
| 2 | Kevin Hayes | 0 |
| 0 | Sean Couturier | 1 |
| 1 | Travis Konecny | 0 |
| 0 | Jakub Voracek | 0 |
| 1 | Claude Giroux | 0 |
Tyler Pitlick scored for Philadelphia on Saturday night, with Scott Laughton and Matt Niskanen assisting.
That’s not good enough.
Dear Flyers Offense, pic.twitter.com/mKxgVgLq5s
— 5th Most Improved Goose (@NotTheRealGoose) August 30, 2020
Pitlick led the team in 5v5 High-Danger chances with two. Konecny and Giroux had one each, while Couturier, Hayes and Voracek combined for three shots.
Islanders See Sag in Turnovers Forced
Another theme we’ve locked in on during this series, is how the Islanders’ forwards have ruined the lives of the Flyers’ defense.
Their consistent forecheck has forced Philly’s D into mistakes, seemingly at almost every turn.
Uncontrolled exits that go right to the opponent are turnovers and the NHL should count them as such.
— Brad Keffer (@brad_keffer) August 30, 2020
In Game 1 they forced them into eight turnovers, getting Shayne Gostisbehere benched in the process. Then in Game 2 the Flyers’ defense turned it over nine times.
In Game 3 things settled down a bit, as the defense turned it over four times. Given how this series has progressed however, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see New York turn up the heat on Sunday.
Flyers Face Must-Win Game 4
The Flyers are frustrated. And we expect Game 4 to play out very similarly to Games 1 and 3.
When you look at this series as a whole, the Flyers have dominated two periods and a three minute overtime. And they only dominated the third period of Game 3 because they were desperate.
Barry Trotz has them figured out, and the Isles should take a 3-1 lead.
The Pick: Islanders (-118), OVER (-107)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
