Habs vs Bolts Game 4 Prediction, Pick & Prop Bets (Apr. 26)

• The Habs are -102 underdogs tonight in Game 4 of their 1st Round series vs the Bolts
• Tampa Bay has generated just 7.39 expected goals so far, the lowest mark of all 16 playoff teams
• See below for my favorite Habs vs Bolts Game 4 prediction and pick, plus the top prop bets for April 26

Few people gave Montreal much of a chance to upset Tampa Bay in Round 1. They expected the Bolts experience and grit to overwhelm the Habs, but so far that hasn’t been the case. Montreal has been the better team through three games, and now carry a 2-1 series lead into Game 4. Yet still, the Habs aren’t getting any resect from oddsmakers. They’ve once again pegged Tampa Bay as favorites in the NHL odds, and just like on Friday I’ll be rolling with the underdogs in this matchup.

Puck drop for Game 4 of this Eastern Conference series is scheduled for 7 pm ET from the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC. ESPN will handle broadcast duties across America, while Sportsnet will carry the game for Canadian viewers.

Here is my favorite Habs vs Bolts Game 4 prediction and pick, plus the top prop bets for the April 26th matchup.

Habs vs Bolts Game 4 Prediction and Pick

• Montreal Canadiens Moneyline (-102 at DraftKings)

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I’m betting the Habs moneyline tonight, and will continue to do so in this series unless I see a dramatic improvement from the Bolts offense. Tampa Bay boasted one of the most potent offensive attacks during the regular season, but so far in this series they’ve looked anemic.

The Bolts rank dead last in expected goals for in the NHL Playoff Bracket. No one would have predicted that before the postseason began, but what’s even more surprising is that they’ve actually outperformed their expected goals total across all strengths. Montreal has done an excellent job keeping them out of the scoring areas, as Tampa Bay has generated only 16 high danger chances. That’s an average of just over 5 per game, despite playing three overtime contests. For context, the Hurricanes, one of the Stanley Cup odds favorites, averaged 14.5 high danger chances per outing on their way to sweeping the Senators.

The lack of offensive production is one issue but it isn’t the only one. Andrei Vasilevskiy has underperformed in the postseason as well, ranking 11th among 18 goalies in save percentage, and 12th in goals saved above expectation. Montreal netminder Jakub Dobes has bested him in both categories which is a sentence I never thought I would write.

As for the Habs offense, it hasn’t been a world beater, but they’ve produced more expected goals than the Bolts, and 19 more high danger scoring chances through three games. They’re getting better looks and putting more pucks on net, which has helped them seize control of the series.

Throw in the fact that they’re at home, in front of a raucous Bell Centre crowd, and are 4-0-1 against Tampa Bay in their last five meetings, and the Montreal moneyline is a no brainer bet for me.

Habs vs Bolts Game 4 Prop Bets

• Lane Hutson Over 1.5 Shots (-150 at DraftKings )

Moving over to the NHL props market, where I’m once again betting Lane Hutson over 1.5 shots on goal until oddsmakers adjust this line. Hutson, the Game 3 OT hero, has now produced a team-high 20 shot attempts through three games and is tied for the team lead with 10 shots on goal. He’s the quarterback of the powerplay, and logs more ice time than any other Habs player, which has helped him clear this line in all three games so far.

Habs vs Bolts Game 4 Odds

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If you want to tail my picks tonight, make sure you visit DraftKings. At the time of writing, DK has the best odds on both Hutson’s shots prop and the Habs moneyline.

If you want to bet against me, make sure you log on to Bet365 as they have the most favorable prices on both the Bolts moneyline at -115, and Tampa Bay to cover the 1.5 puckline at +220.