Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 Prediction, Picks, Props & Odds (April 19)

• The Avalanche are -276 Game 1 favorites at Ball Arena in the first playoff meeting between these teams since 2002
• Colorado swept the regular-season series 3-0, outscoring Los Angeles 13-5
• See my Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 prediction, picks, props and odds for Sunday afternoon

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are here, and the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche (55-16-11, 121 points) open their first-round series against the Los Angeles Kings (35-27-20, 90 points) at Ball Arena. Colorado led the NHL in goals for (3.63 per game) and goals against (2.40) and swept the season series, outscoring the Kings 13-5 across three meetings.

Los Angeles squeaked in as the second Western wild card and clinched on April 13. The Kings added Artemi Panarin from the Rangers in February, and this is Anze Kopitar’s final postseason before retirement. Puck drop is at 3:00 pm ET on TNT.

Here are my Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 prediction and picks, plus the latest odds and props.

Jump to: Prediction | Picks | Props | Odds | Goalies

Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 Prediction

• Side bet: Avalanche -1.5 Puck Line (-106 at FanDuel)

My Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 prediction is on the Avalanche to cover -1.5. Colorado won all three regular-season meetings by at least two goals (4-1, 5-2, 4-2), and the Kings have been one of the worst road teams in the league down the stretch at 2-4 in their last six away games.

The talent gap is enormous. Nathan MacKinnon won the Rocket Richard Trophy with 53 goals and 127 points, and Colorado has three 65-point scorers in MacKinnon, Martin Necas (100) and Cale Makar (79). The Kings’ secondary scoring dried up after losing Kevin Fiala to a fractured leg, and they finished 29th in the league in goals.

Kings vs Avalanche Key Stats

Colorado held opponents to an NHL-low 2.40 goals per game, won the Jennings Trophy for fewest goals allowed, and posted a +101 goal differential. The Kings defense was solid at 2.90, but their 74.6% penalty kill is among the league’s worst. That could be a major problem against the Avs’ power play, which features MacKinnon, Makar and Necas.

Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 Picks

• Total bet: Under 6 Goals (-115 at BetMGM)

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My main Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 pick is on Under 6 at -115 odds. Colorado allowed the fewest goals in the NHL, and their projected starter Wedgewood leads the league in save percentage (.921) and GAA (2.02). He went 5-1-1 with a 1.37 GAA and .942 save percentage over his last seven starts.

The Kings want to grind this game down, and coach D.J. Smith has said they need to “weather the storm” and limit Colorado’s runs. Los Angeles ranked eighth in goals against at 2.90 per game.

Forsberg closed April with a 1.48 GAA and .943 save percentage in his last six starts. Two hot goalies in a playoff opener where one side wants to slow the pace is a recipe for a tight game.

Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 Props

I’ve come up with two Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 props, both on the Los Angeles side.

• Adrian Kempe Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-137 at DraftKings)

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I’m starting my Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 props with Adrian Kempe to clear his shots total. Kempe has gone over 2.5 shots in five of his last six against Colorado, averaging 3.5 per game.

He led the Kings with 226 shots this season and is one point from joining Gretzky and Nicholls as the third King to post 30 points through his first 30 career playoff games.

• Trevor Moore Over 0.5 Assists (+213 at Caesars)

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Wrapping up my Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 props, I like Trevor Moore to pick up an assist at long plus money. Moore has recorded a helper in five straight road games, averaging exactly 1.0 per contest.

He’s skating on the second line alongside Byfield and Laferriere, and +213 on a 100% trend over five games is the kind of mispricing worth chasing.

Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 Odds

Odds via consensus sportsbooks.

Colorado’s -276 moneyline translates to roughly a 73% implied probability. The puck line is nearly a coin flip at -106/-114, which tells you the books expect a comfortable Avs win but aren’t entirely sold on a multi-goal margin. The total at 5.5 is lower than most regular-season games between these teams, which lines up with the playoff tightening you’d expect.

The Stanley Cup odds have Colorado among the top favorites to win it all, and a Game 1 win would go a long way toward setting the tone. Teams that take a 1-0 series lead have won the best-of-7 at a .680 rate all-time.

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Kings vs Avalanche Game 1 Expected Goalies

Neither team has officially announced a starter. Wedgewood is the likely choice for Colorado after leading the NHL in save percentage and GAA all season. Bednar wouldn’t tip his hand at Saturday’s practice, but Wedgewood has been the go-to in the biggest spots all year.

Forsberg vs Wedgewood Stats

Forsberg is the expected starter for LA after closing April with a 5-1-0 record, 1.48 GAA and .943 save percentage in his final six starts. He’s been much sharper than Darcy Kuemper (.891 SV%) down the stretch and earned the net.

Wedgewood has been one of the best stories in hockey this season. The 33-year-old career backup posted a league-best .921 save percentage, 2.02 GAA and four shutouts across 43 starts. Since mid-March, he’s been even better with a 1.37 GAA and .942 save percentage. Colorado also has Mackenzie Blackwood (22-10-2, .905 SV%) available if they decide to go with a tandem approach.