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Maple Leafs vs Panthers Prediction, Odds & Picks (Apr. 16)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey

Updated Apr 16, 2024 · 11:34 AM PDT

Florida Panthers forward Sam Reinhart pushes on Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews
Apr 1, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Florida Panthers forward Sam Reinhart (13) pushes on Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) in the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Maple Leafs and Panthers clash on Tuesday
  • Money has come in on Florida in the Tuesday NHL odds
  • Read below for Maple Leafs vs Panthers prediction, odds, and picks

Auston Matthews continues his chase for a 70-goal season when the Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Florida Panthers on Tuesday night. The puck drops at 7:30 PM ET, with ESPN carrying the action nationally.

According to the NHL odds at Bet365 Sportsbook, the Panthers are now heavy -160 favorites to defeat the Maple Leafs after opening as long as -125 for this game. Florida can clinch the Atlantic Divison if they claim victory and other results go their way.

Let’s get into our Maple Leafs vs Panthers prediction as we analyze the odds and provide our picks.

Maple Leafs vs Panthers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
TOR Maple Leafs +1.5 (-185) +135 Over 6.0 (-120)
FLA Panthers -1.5 (+155) -160 Under 6.0 (+100)

In the Tuesday NHL odds, the Panthers are -160 moneyline favorites over the Maple Leafs, giving them an implied win probability of 61.5%.


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Odds as of Tuesday, April 16, 2024, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Take advantage of the Bet365 sign up bonus to bet on Maple Leafs vs Panthers. Bet $5 on the game and get $150!

Leafs vs Panthers History

The Leafs and Panthers have already faced off three times this season, with Toronto prevailing in the most recent two meetings. The Cats eliminated the Leafs in five games during Round 2 of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Date Home-Away ML PL O/U
04/01/2024 TOR 6 – FLA 4 TOR +125 TOR / 1.5 -208 Over 6
11/28/2023 TOR 2 – FLA 1 SO TOR -135 FLA / 1.5 -210 Under 6.5
10/19/2023 FLA 3 – TOR 1 FLA +119 FLA / 1.5 -196 Under 7
05/12/2023 TOR 2 – FLA 3 OT FLA +159 FLA / 1.5 -151 Under 6.5
05/10/2023 FLA 1 – TOR 2 TOR -111 FLA / 1.5 -243 Under 6.5

Maple Leafs Betting Analysis

The Toronto Maple Leafs have already clinched third place in the NHL Playoff Bracket, so the big story right now revolves around their superstar center, Auston Matthews. Matthews needs one more goal to become the ninth single-season 70-goal scorer in NHL history.

Matthews has scored in eight straight games and is available at -140 odds (DraftKings) to make NHL history tonight. He’ll aim to accomplish the feat against a Panthers team allowing the fewest goals per game in the NHL (2.42).

The Leafs have dropped two straight games, including a 5-4 defeat to the Red Wings on Saturday. Ilya Samsonov has struggled in the Maple Leafs’ crease recently, allowing 11 goals in his past two starts.

With Samsonov struggling, Joseph Woll has been confirmed as Tuesday’s NHL starting goalie. Woll is 12-10-1 this season with a .908 save percentage and 2.88 GAA. This game will serve as an audition for playing time in the upcoming postseason.

Panthers Betting Analysis

Florida has rediscovered their mojo following a rough stretch of play that began in mid-March. The Cats have strung together three straight victories and aim to close out their regular season on a four-game winning streak by beating Toronto.

The Panthers have been led by Sam Reinhart, who is enjoying a career season with 55 goals and 92 points. Florida has another star in the goalie crease, as Sergei Bobrovsky leads all Eastern Conference netminders in wins (36), to go along with a .923 save percentage.

Bobrovsky is getting a rest night on Tuesday, however, meaning Anthony Stolarz will be making his 27th start of the season. The good news for Florida backers is that the 30-year-old has been one of the best NHL backups this season, posting a 15-7-2 record with a .926 save percentage.

While Florida’s defense has been impressive, the team is only middle-of-the-pack in goals scored per game (3.21). They do, however, have five different players with at least 20 tallies, including Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Matthew Tkachuk, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Aleksander Barkov.

Barkov is expected to suit up Tuesday despite injury news that the two-way star is dealing with an undisclosed ailment. Verhaeghe is also set to return from his upper-body injury. Top defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Aaron Ekblad are both out for this game, however.

Maple Leafs vs Panthers Prediction

The sharp bettors love Florida in this game, as the Panthers’ moneyline has shifted from -130 to -160 (on average) at online sportsbooks. Florida has had Toronto’s number lately, winning the first meeting in Sunrise and eliminating the Leafs in five games last postseason (Round 2).

Over the past month, Florida also has the edge in 5-on-5 play, sporting an impressive 60 CF% at even strength. The Leafs haven’t been slacking in that department, however, as they sport a solid 55.20 CF% in that same span.

It’s evident based on the last game that Toronto’s primary goal is to get Auston Matthews his milestone 70th goal. Florida is likely more motivated to get the two points, as they can improve their odds of claiming the Atlantic Division crown with a victory.

We aren’t betting against this line movement, especially considering the goaltending edge for the home team. We’re laying the juice with the Cats at home, but you can look to Florida’s three-way line as another option at a better price.

TOR vs FLA Pick:

  • Panthers ML (-160)


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