NHL Round 1 Playoff Predictions – Expert Pick for Each Series

• The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin on Saturday with a tripleheader
• Ottawa’s league-best defense is going to pose problems for the heavily favored Hurricanes
• Keep reading for my NHL Round 1 playoff predictions and expert pick for each series

The puck drops on the Stanley Cup Playoffs Saturday, aka the most grueling postseason tournament in sports. Absent from this year’s tourney is two-time defending champion Florida, meaning a new winner will hoist Lord Stanley sometime in early June.

A variety of different markets are already up for each of the eight series, and I’ve dug into the numbers to find my favorite wager for each best-of-7 matchup.

Keep reading for NHL Round 1 playoff predictions and expert picks for each series below.

Senators vs Hurricanes Prediction

I’ll start my NHL Round 1 playoff predictions in the East. The Hurricanes are the clear favorites to come out of that side of the NHL playoff bracket, but don’t be surprised if the Senators make their lives miserable.

No team was better defensively than Ottawa this season. They yielded the fewest expected goals per game, and were fantastic at limiting high-danger scoring chances. Underwhelming goaltending is the reason they didn’t finish higher in the standings, but if they even get average play in the crease, they’ll be a tough out.

Carolina’s biggest issue is that their offense disappears for stretches, which is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs. They ranked near the bottom in finishing ability, and their goaltending can also be shaky at times. Ottawa pushed a heavily favored Toronto team to 6 games last year, and I’m anticipating a similar result versus the Canes.

• Senators +1.5 Games (-140 at DraftKings)

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Flyers vs Penguins Pick

The Flyers are a great story and one of the hottest teams heading into the postseason, after finishing with an 18-6-1 record down the stretch. Like Ottawa, they’re strong defensively, but I’m not convinced their offense can match the Pens.

Pittsburgh ranked fourth in the league in expected goals at even strength, and is loaded with playoff veterans like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Erik Karlsson, who all averaged a point per game this year. The Pens also boast the vastly superior special teams, ranking top-7 on the power play and penalty kill.

Philly’s special teams, meanwhile, will be their undoing. They’re bottom-10 in both areas, and convert on a league low 15.7% of their powerplay attempts.

• Penguins Series Moneyline (-140 at FanDuel)

Bruins vs Sabres Prediction

Casual fans will be pulling hard for the Sabres this season, as no franchise has been more starved for playoff success. They’ve drawn an excellent matchup in Round 1, as Boston is a prime regression candidate.

No playoff team outperformed their expected goals for and against metrics more drastically than the Bruins. Their finishing rate isn’t sustainable, and neither is the world-class goaltending Jeremy Swayman is giving them.

Buffalo is young, extremely talented and tough. I’m betting they make quick work of this overachieving Boston team.

• Sabres -1.5 Games (+126 at FanDuel)

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Canadiens vs Lightning Pick

How far can Montreal’s young guns take them? Can Cole Caufield continue to drastically outperform his expected goals total? These are the questions facing the Habs as they enter the postseason, and I can’t think of a worse opponent for a young team to face than the Lightning.

Simply put, Tampa Bay has too much experience and is too well coached to lose in the opening round. They have arguably the best goalie in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy and a perennial Hart Trophy odds contender in Nikita Kucherov. Mix in a plethora of grizzled playoff vets, and the Lightning are about to give Montreal a rude welcome to postseason puck.

• Lightning 1.5 Games (-113 at FanDuel)

Kings vs Avalanche Prediction

Moving over to the West, where we’ll start with the Stanley Cup odds favorite Avalanche. They’ll draw the Kings in Round 1, which is the perfect opponent with the status of Cale Makar still up in the air.

The Avs have elite goaltending, the most talented defensive core, and the league’s most explosive set of forwards. LA, meanwhile, finished bottom-eight in goals for, and had fewer regulation wins than the Leafs and Rangers, who are lottery teams.

• Avalanche -2.5 Games (+125 at DraftKings)

Wild vs Stars Pick

If there’s one series that is appointment viewing in Round 1, it’s the Wild vs Stars. These are two of the four best teams in hockey, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if either won the Stanley Cup.

A series like this is too close to call, which is why I’m banking on it going the distance. Both teams have elite defensemen and scorers, and both are battle-tested. The difference could be in goal, where Minnesota’s tandem of Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt is arguably the best in the league.

• Wild vs Stars Over 6.5 Games (+195 at Bet365)

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Mammoth vs Golden Knights

Goaltending continues to plague Vegas, and they’ll be at a severe disadvantage against Utah in that category in Round 1. The Mammoth’s Karel Vejmelka finished second this season in wins, and was brilliant versus the Golden Knights in the regular season, posting a 1.67 GAA and .947 save percentage.

Utah took two of three from Vegas this year, outscoring them 10-5. Yes, the Mammoth are young, but they’re speedy and full of enough skill to push Vegas to at least six games.

• Mammoth +1.5 Games (-130 at Bet365)

Ducks vs Oilers

I think the best way to wager on the Ducks vs Oilers series is to simply bet the over in every game. Led by Connor McDavid, the Oilers have as much firepower as anyone, while goaltending is always their Kryptonite.

Anaheim, on the other hand, is a young, highly skilled team that should be a force in the years to come. Their special teams, defense and possession control aren’t good enough yet to make a deep run, but they’ll still be a highly entertaining watch.

Any outcome for this series is on the table, so let’s take the value on the Ducks getting +1.5 on the spread.

• Ducks +1.5 Games (-125 at FanDuel)