Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars Game 7 Odds, Predictions & Player Props

• The Dallas Stars host the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 7 of their first-round series on Sunday night
• After losing the first four games of the series, home teams have won two in row between Dallas and Vegas
• See the Golden Nights vs Stars Game 7 odds, predictions, and player props on May 5, 2024

The two best words in hockey will take the spotlight on Sunday night in Dallas: Game 7. The Vegas Golden Knights (45-29-8 regular season, 18-17-6 away) and Dallas Stars (52-21-9 regular season, 26-11-4) square off in the crucible of their best-of-seven series at American Airlines Center at 6:40 pm CT/7:40 pm ET.

Despite the home team going just 2-4 straight-up in the series so far, the Golden Knights vs Stars Game 7 odds favor Dallas to advance in the NHL playoff bracket.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars Game 7 Odds

Dallas is a -150 moneyline favorite and +170 to win by multiple goals. Vegas is +125 to win and -205 to keep it within a goal. The over/under is sitting at 5.5 in Sunday’s NHL odds with the under favored at -120. Four of the first six games stayed under 5.5 and the teams are averaging just 4.83 goals per game.

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Odds as of May 5, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM promo code to wager on Game 7 on Sunday night.

The winner of Vegas/Dallas will move onto face the Colorado Avalanche in round two. The Avs beat the Winnipeg Jets in five games (winning four straight after a Game 1 loss) and have been resting since Tuesday, April 30.

Golden Knights Full Value for Game 6 Victory

After dropping Games 3 and 4 at home – and blowing a golden opportunity to put the Stars on the brink of elimination after taking a 2-0 lead in the series – the Golden Knights showed their championship mettle in Game 6 while facing elimination themselves. Vegas outshot Dallas 30-23 (51-38 including blocked shots) and had 3.39 expected goals for (xGF) compared to just 2.84 xGF for the Stars, per moneypuck.com.

With the score still tied 0-0 midway through the third, Noah Hanifin finally opened the scoring with 10:06 remaining, going top blocker on Jake Oettinger (on a lucky deflection off Ryan Suter’s knee) after jumping in from the point. Mark Stone would ice it with an empty netter with 20 seconds to play.

Game 6 marked just the second time since Dec. 6 that the Stars have been shutout.

Game 6 was also a departure from the majority of the series in terms of chance-creation. The Stars currently lead the NHL playoffs in xGF percentage (60.15%), with the corollary being that the Golden Knights are last at 39.85%. In other words, based on the number and quality of scoring chances so far, Dallas would be expected to score six out of every ten goals.

The xGF in Games 4 and 5 were 4.02 to 3.33 and 3.52 to 2.07, both in Dallas’ favor.

DAL vs VGK Player Props for Game 7

The Golden Knights vs Stars player props for Game 7 show Jason Robertson (-195) and Jack Eichel (-190) with the best odds to score a point. Eichel and Wyatt Johnston are the only players with shot total of 3.5. Every other player on the board is at 2.5 or lower.

Johnston has 23 shots through six games (3.8 shots per game).  Eichel only has 19 (3.2 per game) but has recorded four or more shots in three of the last five games.

Vegas vs Dallas Injury Reports

The most-notable name on the injury reports for Game 7 is Dallas winger Mason Marchment, who notched 22 goals and 53 points in the regular season. Marchment is listed as “day-to-day” but hasn’t played since Game 2 due to an undisclosed injury.

Defenseman Jani Hakanpaa (2 G, 12 PTS) is also listed as day-to-day despite not playing since March 16.

For Vegas, the only notable absence will be defenseman Nicolas Hague (2 G, 12 PTS), who played 15:41 in Game 1 but hasn’t dressed since due to a lower-body injury.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars Game 7 Prediction

The advanced stats all point to the Stars. They are generating more and better-quality chances. They also went an excellent 26-11-4 at home during the regular season, while Vegas was a thoroughly pedestrian 18-17-6 on the road.

But Vegas is the reigning Stanley Cup champion, and Adin Hill reclaimed his net from Logan Thompson with a shutout in Game 6. Hill went 11-4 in last year’s playoffs, posting a superb .932 save percentage and 2.17 GAA, which included two shutouts against Dallas in the Western Conference final. Hill stopped 23 of 23 shots in a Vegas’ series-clinching Game 6 win in Dallas.

Vegas isn’t quite the same team it was last season, but the Golden Knights still have a better postseason pedigree than the always-a-bridesmaid Stars. The Golden Knights’ “clutch gene” will be the difference in Game 7.

VGK vs DAL Game 7 picks:

• Golden Knights moneyline (+125)
• Heiskanen under 0.5 points (+135)
• Under 5.5 goals (-125)