- One sportsbook lists Bernie Sanders (-112) ahead of Joe Biden (+101) in the opening odds for the South Carolina Democratic primary
- But polls still show Biden with an eight-point lead over Sanders in the state
- All of the odds for this Feb. 29th primary are listed below
The South Carolina primary is supposed to be where Joe Biden begins to mount his comeback for the Democratic Presidential nomination.
Instead, one prominent betting site is offering odds that the Bernie Sanders train will keep on steaming through the state.
Its opening line on the South Carolina primary has Sanders as the -112 odds-on favorite.
Biden is the second-favorite at +101. In the bigger picture, he’s dropped to fourth overall in the 2020 Democratic nominee odds.
2020 South Carolina Democratic Primary Odds
Odds taken Feb. 14.
The South Carolina primary will be held on Feb. 29th.
New Hampshire Carryover For Sanders?
There’s been a surge for Sanders in the odds to win upcoming primaries since his victory in this week’s New Hampshire primary. The site also pegs Bernie as the overwhelming -330 chalk to win the Nevada caucus.
There’s 18 days between New Hampshire and South Carolina. Will Sanders carry his momentum from New Hampshire into the Palmetto State?
It didn’t work out that way for him in 2016. Sanders captured New Hampshire by over 22 points four years ago. However, he was crushed by more than 47 points by Hillary Clinton in South Carolina.
Democratic presidential contender @BernieSanders is looking to build more momentum in the upcoming Nevada caucus & South Carolina primary. His victory in New Hampshire on Tuesday puts the Senator in 2nd place in the delegate count with 21.
Senator Sanders joins us from Virginia: pic.twitter.com/QDYhhgaiGh
— CBS This Morning (@CBSThisMorning) February 14, 2020
A unique twist to the South Carolina primaries is that this is an open primary state. Republicans and Democrats are free to vote for candidates from either party.
It’s only one state but that crossover effect could offer a bit of a window into which Democratic candidates are most preferred by Republican voters. In other words, which candidates might offer the best hope of unseating Republican incumbent Donald Trump from the White House.
However, there’s also been speculation that some Republican voters may deliberately cast their ballots for Sanders. There are Trump supporters who believe that Bernie leading the Democrats gives their guy the best chance at re-election.
Polls Back Biden
On Friday, East Carolina University released the first post-New Hampshire poll on the South Carolina Democratic primary. It showed Biden still out in front. However, his lead has significantly evaporated.
Biden is getting 28% of support. That’s down 9% from previous polls.
The biggest gainer was Sanders. He jumped up 14 points to 20%. Sanders also leapfrogged Tom Steyer (14%) into second place.
Post-NH South Carolina poll!
Amy Klobuchar 7%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Biden's lead is down quite a bit. But this is also hardly catastrophic for him.https://t.co/5E3gGTUXbI
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 14, 2020
No other candidate polled in double digits.
Michael Bloomberg drew 6% support. Bloomberg isn’t on the South Carolina ballot. Who will get those Bloomberg supporters to come over to their camp when the ballots are cast?
Biden Needs A South Carolina Victory
In sports, there’s no such thing as a ugly win while a team is struggling. It’s the same in politics.
Biden was fourth in the Iowa caucus and a dismal fifth in New Hampshire. His flagging campaign needs a victory somewhere, anywhere.
South Carolina should be that somewhere.
Biden campaigned in the state even before votes were counted in New Hampshire. He recognizes how vital South Carolina success is to his candidacy.
Biden’s counting on his strong support among black voters putting him over the top. Over 60% of registered Democratic voters in South Carolina are black.
It might be by the skin of his teeth but Biden will get on the board with a win in South Carolina.
Pick: Joe Biden (+101)
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