Democrats Still Favored to Win in 2020, but Odds Are Slipping

• The Democratic Party’s odds have slipped from -130 to -120
• Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders struggled at the first debate
• If the economy is strong, it’ll be hard for the Democratic Party to unseat Donald Trump

The first wave of Democratic Party debates has come and gone, and it looks like we can finally separate some pretenders from contenders. However, Democrats around the country shouldn’t get too excited. The 2020 US Presidential Election odds have been refreshed and the Democrats’ odds of taking back the White House have slipped from -130 to -120.

2019 US Presidential Election Winning Party Odds

Odds taken 06/28/19.

Biggest Democratic Frontrunners Falter at Debates

It was an ugly day for the frontrunners to become the Democratic Party’s nominee. Joe Biden entered with a substantial lead in the polls but he looked nothing short of awful. The best compliment that can be given to him is that he looked flat. However, CNN and many other media outlets panned him.

The same goes for Bernie Sanders, who found it tough to get his message out on a crowded stage. He didn’t seem as sharp-witted as some of the others on stage. He also wants to pull the party further to the left, which many Democrats don’t agree with.

The bottom line is the Republicans’ odds have improved because the two best Democrats in the running to beat Trump should – emphasis on should – get pulled back to the pack. The two biggest brands on their side don’t look like they really have what it takes to win the fight over the next 12-16 months.

Border Crisis is Messy, but Many Agree With Republicans

While the majority of the country doesn’t like the treatment of immigrants at the border – it’s truly an ugly situation – the truth is that few people outside of the left wing really blame Trump. This is an issue that’s gone back 20 years and even the much-loved President Barrack Obama once told the media that the United States would “send those kids home”.

So while it’s an ugly situation at the border, many feel that Trump and Republicans are at least trying to deal with this situation – one that’s gone ignored for many years. And unfortunately, Democrats don’t have any better solutions.

Every Democratic nominee in Thursday’s debate vouched for giving free healthcare to immigrants seeking refuge.

Sure, they don’t want a wall but every Democratic nominee in Thursday’s debate vouched for giving free healthcare to immigrants seeking refuge. That’s not something the majority of Americans will agree with – especially since so many Americans don’t have healthcare as it is.

It’s not pretty what’s happening at the Southern border but it’s not hurting Trump as much as the Democrats believe. Furthermore, it’s going energize the right wing and Trump’s base, which means they’ll come out in droves to vote for him if this is still an issue in 2020.

Economy is Strong

For Donald Trump and the Republicans, everything is going to come down to the economy. He’s not an eloquent President – if anything, he rubs many people the wrong way – and he’s definitely made the foreign situation with America’s allies quite challenging.

At the same time, history shows that the voters will stick with the incumbent if the economy is strong. The prospect of switching to someone like Sanders or Elizabeth Warren could have a sizable impact on the economy and voters will be worried about that.

What’s the Best Bet?

With unemployment is really low, African American unemployment at all-time lows, and the economy pumping – even with all sorts of tariffs – it’ll be hard for the Democratic Party to win if the economy is going well. I’d bet Trump to return to office for four more years as of right now.

Pick: Republican Party (-110)