2026 Midterm Election Odds: How Kalshi vs. Polymarket Prices Compare

• Election Day is almost here as the 2026 midterms will set a new political landscape across the country
• Prediction markets have been tracking races nationwide, with midterm election odds currently a hot topic on trading sites
• See a breakdown of how Kalshi vs. Polymarket prices compare to trade on midterm elections in November 2026

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The 2026 midterm elections are just one day away, and there is no shortage of trading activity on the top prediction markets.

Two platforms in particular have seen the most market liquidity: Kalshi and Polymarket.

With hundreds of millions being traded for the top election prediction markets, contract prices aren’t always quite the same.

Here are some races where the current prices have some differences that you can get the most value for as voting takes place tomorrow.

*Midterm election odds listed as of November 2, 2026.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket Governor Races

Governor races are taking place in key battleground states, but there are a few that have some notable price differences. Depending on which side of the race you’re looking to jump in, there’s an opportunity to get the best price for yourself.

Florida Governor

This race seems to be going with the Republican, Donalds, with him up by 4.5 points in the polls, but you can get a slightly better price on him at Polymarket today. If you’re looking to back Jolly, his value comes at Kalshi, with a 2-cent difference.

Georgia Governor

This has been an active race, and even though Lance Bottoms has been decided as the favorite at prediction markets, the polls show this as a dead heat in Georgia. The state has never elected a female governor, so Lance Bottoms is also battling history. Her prices are quite varied between these two prediction markets.

Nevada Governor

The Nevada Governor’s race is where you really see some differences in pricing right now. The favorite, Aaron Ford, has a 3% gap between the two operators, while Joe Lombardo has a 2% difference if you’re looking to trade on his chances. The Nevada polls have Ford ahead by less than 1 point in what should be a close outcome.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket Senate Races

The U.S. Senate could be flipping on Tuesday, and there are some notable races where you can find some different prices to consider if you want action on the election.

Iowa Senate

This race has been up-and-down in recent weeks, and both markets see it pretty even. The polls have this about as even as it gets as well, so if you’re looking to join this market, get the value that gives you the biggest advantage.

South Carolina Senate

South Carolina is a race that has drawn a lot of national attention, as the winner is taking over the seat of Lindsey Graham. His sister is leading in both markets, but the rates show a 2% difference for both her and her opponent, Annie Andrews. Andrews seems to be gaining steam in the last week, but is still down in the polls by more than half a point.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket House Races

With every House seat up for grabs in this election, there’s a lot of markets to choose from. Most are pretty lopsided right now, but one state in particular has seen its races create a lot of changing odds. Michigan has a pair of House races that the two major prediction markets are not quite seeing eye-to-eye on.

Michigan-10 House

This is a race with a wide gap in the odds even though most polls in Michigan see this as nearly even. That could be why Hines has such a different rate over the two major prediction markets.

Michigan-04 House

McCann was down in this race when it comes to odds, but has surged over the last few weeks. His rates are 2% different between Kalshi and Polymarket, but polls still show Huizenga leading by multiple points. This race will be a good indicator if prediction markets have become more reliable than polls.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket Ballot Proposals

Along with head-to-head elections, there are a few notable ballot proposals to be voted on Tuesday that have gotten the attention of prediction markets. While the election races mostly stay about even between Kalshi and Polymarket pricing, these proposals are showing a wider gap in prices.

Will California Billionaire Wealth Tax Pass

Prop 40 will be voted on Tuesday. The proposition calls for a one-time wealth tax on those with a net worth of $1 billion or more who are California residents. The tax rate would be 5% on worldwide net worth in hopes of raising nearly $100 billion in revenue for California. The markets don’t see the measure passing, but there is a 5% difference on the Yes vote between the two markets and a 4% difference on the No vote. That’s a big gap if you are looking to trade on the measure.

Will Florida Property Tax Amendment Pass?

Amendment 3 is being voted on in Florida on Tuesday. Voting yes would increase the homestead tax exemption for non-school district property taxes over the next two years. Property taxes would also have to be spent by counties and municipalities on public safety, education, infrastructure, and other local projects, as well as employee retirement benefits. The ballot measure doesn’t seem to be one expected to pass according to the prediction markets, but the pricing has a wide gap. If interested in getting in this market, make sure to get the price at the best value for the side you’re choosing.