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Odds Pence Replaced as GOP VP Candidate Sitting at +600 After Staffer Tests Positive for COVID-19

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Politics News

Updated May 11, 2020 · 10:28 AM PDT

Mike Pence with the president of Colombia and Venezuela.
It's been announced that a Mike Pence staff aide has tested positive for COVID-19. Photo by The White House (Flickr).
  • A staff aide to Vice President Mike Pence has tested positive for the coronavirus
  • This is the second aide to test positive (first one was on March 21st) and the first did not pass the virus to Pence
  • This shouldn’t have any impact on Pence being on the 2020 election ticket with Donald Trump

Vice President Mike Pence had a staffer test positive for COVID-19. We’ve seen President Donald Trump and Pence both come close to those who have had the coronavirus before and avoid it. Will that change this time?

It will be interesting to see how this impacts the 2020 election odds and the chances of Pence being swapped out for another VP candidate.

2020 Republican Ticket Odds

Republican VP Candidate Odds
Mike Pence -1000
Not Mike Pence +600

Odds as of May 8, 2020.

Pence Staffer Tests Positive For COVID-19

On Friday, it was reported that a staff aide in Pence’s team had tested positive for COVID-19. The next question many people are asking is how close has this person gotten to Pence and should Pence get tested himself?

The good news is that this isn’t the first time one of Pence’s team members has tested positive and the first one didn’t pass it to the Vice President, so that’s a good sign. Also, the Vice President is currently in Des Moines, Iowa, meeting with faith leaders and agricultural teams, so it’s not as if he’s in the building.

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany announced the news of the infected staffer at a press briefing on Friday but we don’t know any more details. Pence has a huge team working with him, so we don’t know if this person is directly in his inner circle, seeing him daily, or if this is someone who is more distant.

The only details we have are that Pence was supposed to fly home on Air Force Two on Friday but the flight was delayed because six other staffers who were supposed to fly with Pence had potentially come in contact with the sick staffer, so they were removed from the flight. Nobody was exhibiting any symptoms, though.

How Will This Impact Pence?

I can’t really see this impacting Pence in any way in terms of the 2020 election. Even if Pence were to be impacted by this, we’ve seen other world leaders like Boris Johnson come through. Pence would have the best medical care at his disposal, so it’s unlikely he’d be sidelined for a long period of time.

Beyond that, Trump and Pence are a team because Trump obviously brings a lot of chaos with him while Pence is the steadying hand. Pence can quietly go to the base of voters and highlight the things that Trump is doing rather than what he’s saying.

Above anything else, Trump values loyalty and Pence has exhibited that. Trump would look like a real scumbag to his own base if he got rid of Pence at this point and there’s really no reason for it. Pence has been a great asset and it’s hard to envision another candidate helping Trump more.

What’s The Best Bet?

At this point, I don’t see any reason why Pence would not be Trump’s running mate. There was a brief buzz for Trump to swap Pence for Nikki Haley but that has died down.

Pence is loyal, he’s done a good job – by most accounts – and he’s needed to secure sections of the Republican base, such as the evangelicals. He’ll be on the ticket.

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