Odds to Be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2024 Favor Donald Trump

• Prior to Election Day, President Trump was the favorite to earn the 2024 Republican presidential nomination at  +160
• With the outcome of the 2020 results almost decided, President Trump is still a +900 longshot to win a second term — which would exclude him from running in four years due to term limits
• Read below for analysis on future US Presidential Election odds

President Trump is now listed as roughly +900 longshot to earn a second term, with Joe Biden listed verging on an unbettable -5000 favorite to prevail in the 2020 presidential election. But Trump’s days in the White House may not be numbered.

The current Commander-in-Chief was coming in as a+160 favorite to earn the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nomination four days (Oct. 30) before Election Day. That was when most prediction models had Biden winning. And things are certainly trending in the right direction for the former Vice President.

If Trump somehow wins a second term, a 2024 nomination becomes a moot point. That’s because of the 22nd Amendment, which limits a United States president to two consecutive terms. But if the president loses, could he really be the GOP nominee four years from now?

2024 Republican Nominee Odds

Odds were last posted on Oct. 30th, 2020. 

There are two critical factors to take into account when handicapping Trump’s chances in four years: his age and his freedom. The president would be 78 years old on Election Day 2024 — making him the oldest potential candidate in history (coincidentally, a year older than the person who currently holds that title: Biden).

While he’s proud of touting his cognitive test results, where will his mental fitness be in four years?

There’s also the issue of potential incarceration — or at least being entangled in any number of lawsuits on a variety of fronts — that might preclude the GOP from propping Trump up as an actual candidate.

The man who hoped to “drain the swamp” has been a worthy contender this year, as the presidential election odds show. But is Trump a realistic favorite to earn the Republican Party’s nomination in four years? We examine the proposition and offer betting advice.

Perception vs Reality (Show)

While Trump’s supporters love him because he’s not a classic politician, will they continue to support a 78-year old “loser?” Trump’s entire persona is based on “winning” and portraying himself as a tough guy.

There’s no doubt he has shown a unique ability to galvanize large numbers of Americans to brave dangerous public gatherings during the pandemic. A Stanford University study recently linked 30,000 coronavirus cases and 700 deaths to people who attended Trump rallies.

At this point it feels like Trump is parodying himself as a lead-in for his new post-presidency reality show/media network. Have to dial up the crazy grievance to keep ratings high.

— Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) November 4, 2020

But how will his brash behavior play as a one-term president — who might still go down in a virtual Electoral College landslide — who is only two years shy of being an octogenarian? The premise takes on even greater doubt when there’s a worthy group of younger — and more electable — candidates waiting in the wings. More on that below.

The Taxman Cometh

Will Trump even be a viable candidate to nominate? A Vanity Fair article earlier this week went into great detail how the president is terrified about going to prison after losing the election. And according to the New York Times, his concern isn’t solely based on his questionable history with the IRS.

230,000 dead.
100,000 more on the way.
Record daily infections.
Super spreader events in NB, AZ, WI, MI, PA & more!!

Trump is Patient Zero… the only things that’s gonna be on lockdown is your sorry ass when the SDNY put you away for obstruction, fraud, tax evasion, rape & more. https://t.co/pJfDRxPCJv

— Billy Baldwin (@BillyBaldwin) November 1, 2020

The younger brother of the man that famously portrays POTUS on Saturday Night Live has some valid points. Earlier this year, the Supreme Court ruled New York’s Southern District’s case against Trump may move forward. Lose the White House — and access to Justice Department privileges — and Trump is that much more susceptible to facing time behind bars. Needless to say, a criminal isn’t a good look for the GOP.

The Field

That brings us to our final point.

There are a handful of up-and-comers in the party that are more capable than Trump of beating Biden — or Kamala Harris — in 2024. Former South Carolina governor and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley — or even GOP Mid-South junior senators Tom Cotton of Arkansas or Josh Hawley from Missouri — feel like potentially better fits for a party that may want to pivot away from the Trump brand. On the other hand …

America should start anticipating a Biden presidency. It should also anticipate a 4-year Trump "shadow presidency" coordinated from Mar-a-Lago and an eventual early-2021 announcement from Trump that he's running for president in 2024. The GOP can't stop that—Trump runs the party.

— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) November 4, 2020

I’m fading Trump now and moving forward. History will look back at the Trump Administration as one that gave tacit approval to white supremacy and saw a global pandemic claim over 230,000 American lives and counting. Investors’ 401ks — as Trump supporters always like to bring up — will be just as well or even better off with a better candidate in 2024.