- Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 Presidential election are already improving significantly
- Just the hint that Trump might run again has caused Trump’s betting line to move from +1500 to +867
- President Grover Cleveland lost the 1888 election but ran and won again in 1892
Based on the latest 2024 election odds on Donald Trump, America’s long national nightmare might not be over. It could be that it’s only going on hiatus.
Just the mere speculation that soon-to-be ex-President Trump is considering another run at the White House in four year’s time is causing his betting line to shorten significantly.
Trump was at odds of +1500 on Nov. 26. A week later, the average betting line on The Donald is +867.
At that, it should also be noted that Trump is still only the third choice in this betting market. Vice-President elect Kamala Harris is the +425 favorite. President-elect Joe Biden is at odds of +663.
Both of them also saw their betting lines shorten. Previously, Harris was at +463, while Biden was showing odds of +850.
2024 US Presidential Election Odds
|Candidate||Dec. 3rd Odds||Nov. 26th Odds||Trending|
|Donald Trump Sr||+867||+1500||↓|
|Dywane (The Rock) Johnson||+2800||OFF||–|
Odds as of Dec. 3rd.
A defeated President running again four years later is not without precedence. Democrat Grover Cleveland won the Presidency in 1884. However, he lost to Benjamin Harrison in 1888. Cleveland ran again in 1892 and won four more years in the White House.
Will Trump Run Again?
Trump teased a 2024 run for the Oval Office earlier this week during a White House Christmas party. In attendance at the function were Republican power brokers, and major party donors.
Republicans reveal their plan to stop giving Trump a free pass; starting during the 2024 primaries pic.twitter.com/qc7yx14ZaC
— Matthew Yglesias 🍦 (@mattyglesias) December 2, 2020
One source told NPR that Trump was 100% considering another run for the Presidency in 2024. There’s speculation he’ll skip Biden’s inauguration to hold a rally announcing his 2024 candidacy.
Freezing Out His Rivals
By continuing to float his candidacy for the 2024 Presidential election, Trump is basically maintaining his hold over the Republican party. The vast majority of the higher ups in the party remain either in lockstep with him, or unwilling to challenge his authority.
The Trump campaign and RNC has raised more than $207M since Election Day, after fundraising to “fight” what they falsely claim was a “rigged” contest.
Most of the money will go toward paying off debts and future political activities—not challenging the outcome. pic.twitter.com/1nLgRNPkxX
— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) December 3, 2020
No one wants to feel the wrath of Trump’s MAGA cult. It’s problematic for Trump supporters like Vice-President Mike Pence and Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, all of whom figure to have their eyes on a 2024 run. But do they dare throw their hats in the ring if Trump hasn’t officially pulled his out?
Likewise, others in the party who could be serious 2024 candidates – think Nikki Haley and Tim Scott – must also be hesitant about beginning the process while Trump still looms large over Republican voters.
An Unlikely Outcome
Trump supporters can talk all they want about the 74 million votes he garnered in 2020. Likewise, they can spout all of their falsehoods about the election being rigged.
The fact of the matter is that Trump was soundly beaten. It wasn’t close. He lost the popular vote for the second straight election and by a much wider margin.
After four years in office, and no significant third-party bleed, Trump will have improved his vote share by less than 0.5 percentage point from his 2016 election.
Mitt Romney got a higher vote share in his 2012 loss to Barack Obama than Trump got either time. https://t.co/Zt7lHNU7Xg
— S.V. Dáte (@svdate) December 3, 2020
The American people saw Trump in action for four years and a majority of them decided they’d seen enough. Four years away isn’t going to make their hearts grow fond for his return.
The likelihood is that Trump doesn’t plan to run again at all. But by keeping the possibility alive, he remains relevant and gets two things out of it – the attention he craves and the ability to fundraise and grab the money he needs.
A bet on Trump in the 2024 election would be an investment in failure.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.