Trump’s Reelection Odds Fade Significantly After Ugly Debate Performance
- Following the first US Presidential debate, Donald Trump’s odds to win reelection faded from +107 to +129
- Challenger Joe Biden’s betting line improved from -129 to -148
- Further Presidential debates are slated for Oct. 15th and 22nd
Donald Trump loves to live in a reality show world, so let’s put the fallout from Tuesday’s first Presidential debate into those easy-to-understand terms: whether there was a winner on Tuesday might still be up for debate. But there’s no doubt as to who was the biggest loser.
That would be you, Mr. President.
Do the math and Trump moved another step closer to being a former resident of the White House.
Prior to the debate, Trump’s average odds of winning reelection were at +107. They plummeted to +129 without hours of the debate ending.
Biden’s betting line as the favorite to win on Nov. 3rd grew much shorter. He was at -129. Today, he’s listed as the -148 chalk in the 2020 election odds.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Pre-Debate Odds | Post-Debate Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | +107 | +129 |
| Joe Biden | -129 | -148 |
Odds as of Sept. 30.
From an implied probability standpoint, Trump’s odds to win dipped from 48.31% to 43.67%. Biden’s percentages improved from 56.33% to 59.68%.
Taking out the juice, the betting market currently sets the probability at 57.75% to 42.25% in Biden’s favor.
Swinging and Missing
Trump went on the attack from the moment the debate started. He talked over Biden. He ignored mediator Chris Wallace. In short, he operated like a schoolyard bully. Trump’s gameplan evidently was “talk loudly and flail wildly”.
Biden didn’t deliver a punishing blow to his obnoxious opponent but he did counterpunch effectively at times.
Trump was ranting and raving from the beginning of the debate to the end.
It is terrifying to imagine him as president for four more months much less four more years. #Debates2020
— Max Boot (@MaxBoot) September 30, 2020
To continue with the boxing analogy, it’s late in the fight. Trump is behind on points. He needs a knockout to win.
He didn’t deliver the goods. As is his pattern, Trump spoke in vague generalities. There were no specific plans, no talk of policy.
Trump focused all his energy on seeking to belittle Biden. Biden took the tack of looking directly into the camera and speaking to the American people.
Trump Being Trump
The Republicans have sought to paint Biden as a doddering old man. They didn’t achieve that objective during the first debate.
The main takeaway from this tire-fire of a debate was that their own guy is a ranting maniac who thrives on chaos and disorder – the thing they claim will happen to America under a Biden Presidency.
US President Trump and Joe Biden faced off in a chaotic debate that devolved into an unrelenting volley of personal attacks and interruptions.
This is the moment Biden told Trump to "shut up, man" as the President repeatedly interrupted him. https://t.co/OsmKPu29tt pic.twitter.com/w3nFjjg4iU
— CNN International (@cnni) September 30, 2020
Even staunch Republicans appearing as post-debate pundits agreed that Trump did himself no favors with his performance. The suggestion was that it was just Trump being Trump.
Based on the numbers, that plan isn’t working like it did in 2016. Biden isn’t a polarizing figure like 2016 Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Trump is now running on a record that’s seen him mishandle a pandemic, killing over 200,000 people and causing the US economy to crater.
Fed up with Trump’s blathering, a frustrated Biden spoke for a large portion of the country when he said to Trump, “Will you shut up, man.”
More Debates: What’s the Point?
Tuesday’s debate was described as a national humiliation. But there were moments that resonated.
Trump’s refusal to denounce white supremacy – he told the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by” – got plenty of traction. When Biden spoke of his son Hunter’s battle to overcome a drug addiction, Trump continued on the attack, displaying zero empathy.
Republican Senator Tim Scott (SC) on Trump telling the Proud Boys to "stand back and stand by" at last night's debate: "I think he misspoke. I think he should correct it. If he doesn't correct it, I guess he didn't misspeak."
— Amee Vanderpool (@girlsreallyrule) September 30, 2020
Biden did have some missteps. He sometimes fumbled over his words. This is the Biden that Republicans seek to expose. However, no one really noticed because the ranting Trump was too busy sucking all the oxygen out of the room.
Two more debates like this next month won’t make a dent into Biden’s advantage. All Trump being Trump is doing is putting Biden into the Oval Office.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
