Trump’s 2024 Presidential Election Odds Stagnate After Vance Added to Ticket as VP; Biden’s Odds Improve
By Sascha Paruk in Politics News
Published:
- Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election failed to improve on Monday when he announced JD Vance as his running mate
- Vance is widely seen as appealing to a dedicated base that already fervently supports Trump
- See the latest 2024 Presidential Election odds for Trump, Biden, and all others remaining on the board
The last two weeks have been a windfall for Donald Trump. Following a brutal debate performance from incumbent Joe Biden and a failed assassination attempt against Trump in Pennsylvania on the weekend, Trump’s 2024 elections odds soared to -278, on average. But that wave of momentum may be breaking on the first day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Monday.
Trump selected Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate in November, and it didn’t lead to the odds boost many were expecting.
Vance was widely seen as the most MAGA-friendly of the potential VP candidates, which is why many pundits thought Trump – who already has that vote in the bag – would go in a different direction.
Updated 2024 Presidential Election Odds (July 15)
| Candidate (Party) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -275 |
| Joe Biden | +450 |
| Kamala Harris | +1100 |
| Michelle Obama | +2200 |
| Gavin Newsom | +2500 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +3300 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr | +5000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +6600 |
| Nikki Haley | +10000 |
| Erik Prince | +15000 |
| Marco Rubio | +15000 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +20000 |
| Antony Blinken | +20000 |
| Bernie Sanders | +20000 |
| Chris Murphy | +20000 |
| Oprah Winfrey | +20000 |
Trump’s odds remained at -275 at bet365 as of Monday afternoon following the Vance announcement. His (likely) challenger, Joe Biden, improved to +450 from +525 just two days ago.
Biden’s most-likely replacement, VP Kamala Harris, has faded to +1100 as the incumbent remains insistent that he’ll remain on the Democratic ticket.
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Odds as of July 15 at bet365. Claim a bet365 bonus code today.
Was Vance an Unwise Pick for VP?
The selection of Vance as his running mate may be an indication that former President Trump is feeling invincible after surviving a bullet to the head. Vance and Trump will see eye to eye on most issues, and should make excellent travelling buddies on the election trail. But Trump is running the risk of alienating anyone with the slightest hint of moderation in their political leanings.
BREAKING: Donald Trump chooses JD Vance as his Vice President pic.twitter.com/FO2KBSjmvj
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 15, 2024
Vance underperformed against most other Republicans in the 2022 midterms, narrowly beating out Democrat Tim Ryan (53.1 vs 46.9%) and retaining the seat vacated Rob Portman for the GOP. He’s a vocal endorser of the claim that the 2020 election was “stolen” from Trump.
Can Biden Recover?
It’s hard to argue that any incumbent has had a worse fortnight than Joe Biden in the build up to his re-election effort. Biden has appeared discombobulated and borderline incompetent while floundering in last month’s debate and, more recently, calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by the name “President Putin”.
According to fivethirtyeight, Biden’s approval rating had dropped from 39.9% on June 20 to just 37.9 at last check.
His odds to win re-election were approaching even money late in 2023 and then faded all the way to +600 in early July when calls for him to step down were at their loudest.
Over the last ten days, though, Biden has improved from +600 to +450, and as the political reality of Vance sinks in, it’s likely he’ll grow even shorter as long as he doesn’t drop out of the race.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
