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Updated Live Election Odds Give Trump Better Than 50% Chance to Win

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Politics

Nov 3, 2020 · 6:37 PM PST

Joe Biden talking into a microphone at a rally
After a brief dip, Joe Biden's 2020 election odds have surged as Election Night has gone on. Photo by Gage Skidmore (wikimedia commons).
  • The live 2020 election odds have swung considerably (in both directions) during Election Day
  • After Trump’s odds nearly pulled even with Biden around 8:00 pm ET, they have only gotten redder as the night has gone on
  • See the latest odds and probability to win the White House

A massive surge in the odds for incumbent Donald Trump around 8:00 pm ET (based largely off the results in Florida) has continued as the night has gone on. The incumbent is now the favorite after starting the day as a +186 underdog.

2020 US Presidential Election Live Odds

Candidate Live Odds True Probability
Joe Biden +125 42.9%
Donald Trump -145 57.1%

Odds as of 9:32 pm ET, Nov. 3rd.

Biden’s early leads in several states, which were based on advanced voting, are evaporating due to Election Day ballots going mostly to Trump.

Stay tuned to the SBD’s Election Odds Tracker for further updates.

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