F1 Monaco Grand Prix Predictions, Pole Position & Race Winner Odds

• A tractor ride through South Jersey offers the perfect preview of Sunday’s Monaco Grand Prix.
• Ferrari had every reason to dominate this weekend. Somehow, that’s not the story.
• Read below for F1 Monaco Grand Prix predictions, pole position and race winner odds.

I got stuck behind a tractor on my way home this week.

Not a metaphor. An actual tractor.

There are advantages to living in the southern New Jersey farmlands. Fresh produce. Open space. Quiet roads.

There are also disadvantages.

For example, spending twenty minutes traveling at the top speed of a moderately motivated tortoise while looking at a triangle-shaped reflective sticker.

No passing lane.

No alternate route.

No escape.

Just acceptance.

Monaco is Formula 1’s version of that experience.

The cars are worth millions of dollars. The drivers are among the most talented people on the planet. The engineering is extraordinary.

And yet half the field will spend Sunday staring at the rear wing of the car in front of them, desperately searching for an overtaking opportunity that doesn’t exist.

Which is why qualifying matters so much. And why this was supposed to be Ferrari’s weekend.

Monaco Grand Prix Start Time

Lights out at 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday on Apple TV+.

F1 Monaco Grand Prix Race Winner Odds

Odds available at DraftKings as of 12:34 a.m. ET on June 7. Kimi Antonelli starts from pole position and enters the Monaco Grand Prix as the favorite at -220, implying a 68.8% win probability as he seeks a fifth consecutive Formula 1 victory. Check out the latest DraftKings promos for the best F1 betting bonuses.

The Ferrari package has generally excelled at circuits that reward cornering speed and mechanical grip. Charles Leclerc arrived at his hometown race. Lewis Hamilton looked quick throughout the weekend. Every storyline pointed toward Ferrari finally cashing in.

Then Kimi Antonelli took pole position.

From 2004 to 2026! 👀

Kimi Antonelli is the first Italian driver in 22 years to secure a pole position in Monaco 😮‍💨🇮🇹#F1 #MonacoGP pic.twitter.com/rpToaiRro6

— Formula 1 (@F1) June 6, 2026

The Mercedes driver enters Sunday riding a four-race winning streak and once again found a way to spoil the party before the lights even went out.

Fortunately for bettors, Monaco is usually less about identifying the fastest car and more about understanding track position. Once the field settles in, passing opportunities become scarce, making starting position and teammate matchups more important than they would be almost anywhere else on the calendar.

Let’s get to the card.

F1 Monaco Grand Prix Predictions

Lando Norris over Oscar Piastri (+165, DraftKings)

McLaren teammates Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris will start from row four, with Piastri rolling off seventh and Norris eighth.

Oddly enough, our simulations don’t see much separation between them. Both drivers average a seventh-place finish across the model runs, which makes perfect sense given the realities of Monaco. If overtaking opportunities are limited and both drivers start in the same row, they should finish somewhere in that same neighborhood.

So what are we really betting on?

Variance.

Pit strategy. Traffic. A slightly better launch. A perfectly timed undercut. A safety car appearing at the right moment.

If Norris wins this matchup roughly half the time, we’ll gladly take the healthy plus-money return.

Carlos Sainz over Alex Albon (+135, DraftKings)

This matchup looks remarkably similar.

Williams teammates Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz occupy row six, starting 11th and 12th respectively. Once again, the model projects almost no separation between the two drivers, with both averaging a finishing position of 12.0.

When projections are essentially identical, price becomes king.

Albon deserves respect, but there’s enough randomness in Monaco strategy and enough uncertainty surrounding pit cycles to justify taking plus money on Sainz.

We’ll happily take the extra payout in what projects as another coin flip.

Isack Hadjar over George Russell (-115, theScore Bet)

Pure pace doesn’t matter much if you’re trapped in traffic.

Mercedes has occasionally struggled on race starts this season, and Monaco punishes even the smallest mistakes. A poor launch can become a 78-lap prison sentence.

Hadjar starts fifth while Russell lines up behind him. If Hadjar wins the launch and settles into position, overtaking becomes extraordinarily difficult.

Think back to that tractor.

You’re stuck behind a slow-moving vehicle. There’s a double yellow line. Traffic is coming the other way. You know you’re faster. It doesn’t matter.

That’s Monaco.

Red Bull also owns one of the strongest pit crews in Formula 1, making it unlikely they’ll voluntarily surrender track position through the pit cycle.

The number feels short given Hadjar’s starting advantage.

Lewis Hamilton to Win (+750, theScore Bet/BetRivers)

It was a Ferrari weekend.

Until it wasn’t.

But maybe it still can be.

No grey hairs in sight for Lewis! 😅#F1 #MonacoGP pic.twitter.com/3q6FWmypud

— Formula 1 (@F1) June 6, 2026

Hamilton starts near the front, Ferrari’s race launches remain among the coolest weapons in Formula 1, and Monaco is one of the few circuits where a driver can fundamentally alter the race before the field reaches Turn 1.

If Hamilton gets an exceptional launch and steals track position early, the entire complexion of the race changes.

Antonelli deserves to be the favorite. He’s won four consecutive races and starts from pole. But Monaco has always rewarded aggression, confidence, and opportunism.

Kalshi offers an even better number for those with access, but domestically, anything close to 8/1 deserves consideration.

Lewis Hamilton Podium Finish (-225, BetRivers)

The safer way to play the Ferrari angle is simply backing Hamilton to stand on the podium.

If the outright ticket is betting on glory, this wager is betting on competence.

Hamilton has the car, the starting position, the experience, and the track profile needed to spend Sunday afternoon near the front. Unless strategy goes completely sideways or he decides to attempt something heroic into Sainte Devote, a podium finish remains the most likely outcome.

Again, Kalshi offers a significantly better price for those able to access it, but we’re still willing to play the domestic number at -225.