Final Indy 500 Predictions, Updated Odds & Start Time (Sunday, May 24)

• Green flag scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX…assuming the weather radar finally stops throwing haymakers.
• Alex Palou enters as the defending Indy 500 champion, pole sitter, and +280 betting favorite.
• Read below for final Indy 500 predictions, updated odds and start time for Sunday, May 24.

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The racing gods are currently trying to turn the 110th Indianapolis 500 into a weekend miniseries. Rain has already shuffled the schedule around all week, and while there’s still a chance weather could push this thing into Monday, as of now we remain on schedule for a Sunday green flag at 12:30 p.m. ET live on FOX.

Fortunately, this is America. It’s Memorial Day weekend and most of the country has the day off anyway. So even if we do wind up racing on Monday, there are certainly worse ways to spend the holiday than watching 33 lunatics rocket into Turn 1 at 230 mph in “The Greatest Spectacle in Racing,” which is admittedly a much cooler nickname than anything the rest of motorsports came up with.

As we discussed in our earlier preview, defending Indianapolis 500 champion Alex Palou enters this year’s race as both the pole sitter and the betting favorite, hovering around +250 across much of the market. The four-time IndyCar champion has already won three races this season and continues to perform with the cold efficiency of a tax audit. The question now is simple: can anyone stop him from doing this again?

Indy 500 Start Time

Green flag is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 24 on FOX.

Updated Indy 500 Odds

Alex Palou is favored to win the 110th Indianapolis 500 at +280, implying a 26.3% probability.

Odds available at DraftKings on May 23. Grab the latest DraftKings promo for the best Indy 500 bonus offers. If you’ve already registered at DK, check out the best sports betting apps.

Final Indy 500 Predictions

• Pick: Graham Rahal over Ryan Hunter-Reay (+114, DraftKings)

Our model projects Graham Rahal to finish 18.2 on average compared to 19.2 for Ryan Hunter-Reay. On the surface, that’s not exactly a gigantic edge. The practice data, however, tells a much stronger story.

Across the combined practice sessions this month, Rahal ranked ninth overall in our speed metrics. Hunter-Reay ranked 30th.

Now yes, Hunter-Reay starts six spots ahead, and yes, experience matters at Indianapolis. But eventually, you have to stop romanticizing veterans and acknowledge when one car is simply faster than the other. Rahal has shown considerably more pace throughout the month, and at plus money, that’s enough for us to fire.

• Pick: Marcus Armstrong over Ed Carpenter (-110, DraftKings)

Marcus Armstrong projects for a 14.5 average finish in our model. Ed Carpenter checks in at 19.9. That’s a pretty healthy gap for a matchup sitting around pick’em pricing.

Armstrong’s combined practice sessions graded nearly 0.8 standard deviations better than Carpenter, which is a sizeable difference over a month’s worth of running at Indianapolis. Carpenter does start one row ahead, and obviously nobody is questioning his résumé at this racetrack. The man practically has his mail forwarded to the Speedway every May.

But Armstrong has simply had more raw speed throughout the month. This feels like betting on the present instead of the résumé.

• Pick: David Malukas over Alexander Rossi (-125, BetRivers)

Alexander Rossi SPINS in Turn 2 😳

Multiple cars are collected as they try to avoid the incident. pic.twitter.com/rOBoa5cERr

— NTT INDYCAR SERIES (@IndyCar) May 18, 2026

“Little Dave” was already becoming a legitimate oval problem last season. This year, he’s doing it in a Penske tub, which feels mildly unfair to the rest of the field.

Sure, Alexander Rossi qualified one position better. Since then, however, he’s suffered a frightening practice crash, destroyed what appeared to be a legitimately fast race car, injured his left hand and right foot, undergone two outpatient procedures, and understandably looked compromised in the sessions afterward.

Meanwhile, Malukas has quietly continued showing legitimate pace throughout the month. Our algorithm projects him to finish 3.9 positions ahead, and that’s without manually informing the spreadsheet that Rossi is currently walking around Indianapolis in a boot.

Sometimes the handicap is buried deep in the numbers. This one is wearing orthopedic equipment.

• Pick: Takuma Sato over Helio Castroneves (-135, theScore Bet)

Takuma Sato was flirting with the Turn 2 wall 🫣 pic.twitter.com/1vTGDGz2Nd

— NTT INDYCAR SERIES (@IndyCar) May 15, 2026

We already picked on Helio Castroneves earlier in the week by taking Christian Rasmussen against him in a matchup. I assume Helio read the article, became furious, and then immediately forgot about it five seconds later because he’s still one of the happiest humans alive.

Naturally, we’re back again.

Takuma Sato is a youthful 49 years old, which somehow makes him two years younger than the 51-year-old Castroneves. That practically qualifies as an up-and-coming prospect in vintage Indy 500 terms.

Our model projects Sato to finish 4.4 positions ahead, and unlike Helio, Sato has consistently flashed legitimate speed throughout practice. At some point this stops being nostalgia and starts becoming physics. We’re betting the faster car and the driver who currently requires fewer ibuprofen tablets.