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NASCAR Advent 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions 2023

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated May 3, 2023 · 7:02 PM PDT

NASCAR Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney on the track
May 1, 2023; Dover, Delaware, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney (12) races during the Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
  • NASCAR sings Dust In The Wind as it heads to Kansas for the Advent 400 from Kansas City set to run on Sunday, May 7th, 2023
  • The contending favorites include Christopher Bell, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson
  • Below are the Advent 400 from Kansas predictions, picks, and betting odds ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR descends on Kansas City, Kansas, for the twelfth race of the 2023 season. Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile low-wear track with 17-20 degree progressive turns and a slightly pitched tri-oval. The race distance totals 400 miles (267 laps). Will the “intermediate” track tilt to Toyota again?

This weekend’s race is almost a week after the Monday Wurth 400 where Martin Truex Jr. held off the field including a hard-charging Ryan Blaney. With that, the Jersey native scored his first win of the season as his brother Ryan won the Xfinity race on Saturday.

The table below lists the complete slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the Advent 400 from Kansas (win, podium finish, and top-five finish). Under the table, find the Kansas predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

NASCAR Advent 400 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Five Odds
Kyle Larson +500 +140 -150
William Byron +750 +200 -120
Tyler Reddick +750 +200 EVEN
Denny Hamlin +750 +200 +110
Martin Truex Jr. +850 +240 +110
Christopher Bell +850 +240 +120
Ross Chastain +1200 +330 +160
Chase Elliott +1200 +330 +160
Kyle Busch +1400 +400 +190
Bubba Wallace +1400 +400 +190
Ryan Blaney +1500 +400 +225
Kevin Harvick +1800 +500 +275
Joey Logano +2200 +600 +190
Brad Keselowski +2800 +800 +400
Ty Gibbs +3500 +1000 +500
Daniel Suarez +3500 +1000 +400
Josh Berry +6000 +1600 +600
Chase Briscoe +6500 +1800 +750
Ryan Preece +10000 +2800 +800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +10000 +2800 +800
Erik Jones +10000 +2800 +850

Kyle Larson enters this race yet again as a +500 favorite. However, five other contenders come in at +850 or shorter. Last week’s race finished on Monday because of rain. Hopefully, that does not happen this weekend. There is a chance of rain.

NASCAR drivers get around the track with an 80-85-102 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning again around 3:00 pm ET on FOX.



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Odds as of May 3rd at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kyle Larson Got Nailed Yet Again

So, the Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver got nailed again at Dover. By far and away, Larson was the fastest car on the track. Then his car became another victim. Eventually, he had to retire from the Monday afternoon race. Yes, Larson has led 27.5% of the laps in his previous four appearances at Kansas. That includes a win too.  Bettors keep steering away, but if he survives a race, look out!

Naturally, the Caesars Sportsbook come in with their differences. For one, Kyle Larson is +450, but Denny Hamlin lies as the favorite at +400. Six drivers come in at +800 or shorter with Chase Elliott lurking at +1000.

Advent 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Kurt Busch – 23XI Racing Christopher Bell – Joe Gibbs Racing Kurt Busch – 23XI Racing
2021 Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Kyle Larson– Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2020 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2019 Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing
2018 Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing Kyle Larson – Chip Ganassi Racing Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing

Does Ryan Blaney Feel Abandoned?

With the Hendrick car speed and Toyota winning twice in a row in May., does Ryan Blaney feel a little abandoned? What do we mean? He finished third last week. As a result, NASCAR Cup Series odds still rides with Chevy (first four drivers now) but Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, and even Denny Hamlin are not too far behind. Despite good results, Blaney is down with Tyler Reddick at +1500. We are saying there’s a chance.

Correlation is kind of like a low-wear mini version of Michigan International Speedway. If there are long runs, expect Chevy and Toyota to be fast again.

Practice begins Saturday evening with a 45-minute session. Saturday qualifying begins at 5:50 pm ET. Fingers crossed!

Advent 400 from Dover Predictions & Picks

So, Saturday seems okay for practice and qualifying. Sunday afternoon features the chance of an isolated thunderstorm. The expectation is for no heavy rains at this time.

Qualifying will be entertaining, Even Ford could snag the pole here. Warm temperatures well in the 80’s will be on the docket. Sunday could approach 90 potentially.

Could Ryan Blaney come through and end that long, long winning drought?. Look at how good he was last week. Anything is possible.

Like we mentioned, watch the weather in case. Again, the chances of a Monday race are much less this time. Taking a 0.1 unit shot at Ryan Blaney is not a bad idea.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick:  Ryan Blaney to Win (+1500)
  • Other Contenders: Kyle Larson (+500), Tyler Reddick (+750), Denny Hamlin. (+750), William Byron (+750)
  • Longshots:  Brad Keselowski (+2800), Ty Gibbs (+3500), Daniel Suarez (+3500)
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