Daytona 500 Predictions, Odds & How to Watch (Sunday, Feb. 16)

• NASCAR Daytona 500 goes green this Sunday at Daytona International Speedway
• Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin love this track. Could Chase Briscoe continue to wow with his speed?
• Below, see our NASCAR Daytona 500 predictions, odds and how to watch the “Super Bowl of stock-car racing.”

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Daytona Beach for the first points event this Sunday, February 16th with the NASCAR Daytona 500. The green flag drops at 1:30 PM ET with live coverage on FOX Network.

The 2.5-mile track races early at an easy pace, setting the stage for the late carnage. Last February, the drivers started on Monday from the track at Daytona Beach. William Byron won one of the faster races in recent memory (157.168 mph). Joey Logano led the most laps with 46. However, the race is always known for its “collectors”. It is a nice way of saying expect a few accidents and cautions.

The oddsmakers are expecting several of the usual superspeedway suspects to contend on Sunday:

NASCAR Daytona 500 Odds

At +900 odds (9/1), the implied probability for favorite Kyle Busch is 10%. Denny Hamlin lurks not too far behind at 9.09%.

If you’re looking for longshot picks, check out our expert analysis here.

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Odds as of Feb. 15 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Register with the DraftKings promo code to wager on the Daytona 500. 

NASCAR Daytona 500 What To Watch For

Kyle Larson and the Daytona 500 typically do not mix. With William Byron winning last year (it was on a Monday), does that open the door for racers like Chase Elliott? Bookmakers seem to think so. Anyway, watch for the weather. A cold front is expected to blow through on Sunday afternoon. That has the potential to delay the race for several hours. Wind will be a certainty until it diminishes before sunset.

Chase Briscoe was quite fast and won the pole, but the question remains. Can Briscoe and Toyota avoid fading late? Last year, it was Byron and Alex Bowman leading the way at the end. Christopher Bell was the best-finishing Toyota in third with four Chevy’s in the Top 6.

In a race that sometimes lulls us into a trance (good thing it is 200 or more laps), the average speed can still be around 150-160 mph. Do not be surprised if Toyota dominates early and racks up some stage points.

Looking for a top 3 or top 5 bet? Now, treading carefully remains a good idea. However, Christopher Bell has finished third the past two Daytona 500’s. Back in 2022, however, Chase Briscoe finished third with not necessarily a very fast car. If Briscoe can get some solid pit stops and avoid the collectors err big one(s), he will be right up near the front late in the final stage.

It is strange to see Briscoe still listed at +2500 to win. Despite this, his confidence keeps growing with his new team. While Christopher Bell is a trendy Top 3 pick at +550, Briscoe now races in at +700 here. Our best bet is Ryan Blaney here who has been close several times before. Last year, Blaney was getting close to the front when “The Big One” collected 23 cars and ended his run. Now, luck may be on his side.

• Best Bet to Win: Ryan Blaney (+1100 at DraftKings)
• Top 3 Finish: Chase Briscoe (+700 at DraftKings)

A Few More NASCAR Daytona 500 Predictions

Yes, Kyle Busch is a favorite here. Busch does have four Top 10 results in his previous six races at Daytona. That includes summer races, however. Expect track and air temps to drop.

It will be intriguing to see where Bubba Wallace winds up. In 2024, Bowman was right up there with Byron and Bubba Wallace seems to have been near the front the past several editions of the 500.

Again, Bubba Wallace has to be at least pondered here. He tends to avoid the big ones and be where it matters close to the end of the race. Wallace also finished fifth in 2024 and won Duel 2 on Thursday with some impressive late green flag speed.

Still, can Ford and Toyota overcome the lower track temperature speed of Chevrolet? This could be the year.

Drivers like Wallace and Brad Keselowski are worth looks for different reasons. Keselowski supposedly has to start from the back but could be a look for a Top 5 pick.

More NASCAR Daytona 500 Picks:

• Brad Keselowski Top 5 (+200)
• Bubba Wallace (+1400)